Question from Ryan: My question is why do I get a B rating nick but when
you look at the cross and it has produced G1 stakes winners? Then the
opposite happens when I get a A++ nick but there may not even be a graded
stakes winner produced?
Alan's reply: Hi
Ryan. Thank you for the question. The reason that the you might get a B rating (not that bad in itself) for a cross that has thrown a
grade I winner, and an A++ rating for a cross that doesn't have a graded
winner, is that the rating is based on stakes winner production relative to
opportunity.
The fact that sire-line cross has produced a good horse (or even several) does not necessarily
make the nick a good one relative to opportunity.
For example, one can take the
Unbridled's Song/Seattle Slew cross. It has produced grade I winners First
Defence and Midshipman, but they are the only stakes winners out of 39 starters
on the cross. This is well below opportunity for both Unbridled's Song and for
the Seattle Slew-line mares that have visited him. (Incidentally, the two mares
that produced First Defence and Midshipman were very high-class runners themselves.) So,
although the cross is capable of producing a very good horse -- in fact a champion -- both Unbridled's Song and the Seattle Slew mares that have visited
him have done much better on average with other matings.
On the other hand, one might have an inexpensive stallion that has a high strike
rate on a specific nick, but has not produced a graded winner. This would
indicate that the affinity between the sire and the broodmare sire, or
broodmare sire line, is high, but the cross has not been tried with the highest
level material. (By way of contrast, if a top-class sire has several stakes
winners on a cross, but a lack of graded winners, one might be more cautious. We like to promote "intelligent interpretation" of TrueNicks reports, and we include a list of the top five horses bred on the cross to help in your research.)