Q & A -- What Is The Lowest Recommended TrueNicks Grade?

Hi John,

Thank you very much for your comments and as a stallion owner your continued support of TrueNicks, and congratulations on Cascanding's stakes win.

I would the first to agree that one should consider all areas of the pedigree when planning a prospective mating. We have never said that TrueNicks is the "silver bullet" but an important, and at least quantifiable, measure that one should use when making their breeding decisions.Whether for genotypical or phenotypical reasons, or a combination of both, there appears to be a strong correlation between the sire/broodmare sire cross (or sireline/broodmare sireline cross) and success at stakes level.

With Cascading, we are dealing with a direct sire/broodmare sire cross, which in hypothetical terms is going to supply 75% of the genetics.

In the case of A.P. Indy with Storm Cat mares, A.P. Indy has sired 10.2% stakes winners out of mares by Storm Cat, and 16.7% stakes winners out of all other mares, so while 10/2% is a stakes production that most nicks would indeed envy, in the case of A.P Indy he clearly prefers several other broodmare sires to Storm Cat.

However, if we run a TrueNicks Broodmare Analysis for Teeming, we see that although the nick is a C (it has moved up just slightly since Cascading won her stakes) with a variant of 0.89 (meaning it has performed just a little below average - that figure being 1.00), the Broodmare Sire Improvement Index shows that the Storm Cat mares that have been bred to A.P. Indy have done 1.45 times better (45% better) than when bred to all other stallions.

The TrueNick rating is not designed to be the final arbiter of the mating, but if one is considering whether to mate a mare as valuable as Teeming with A.P. Indy, one should at least know that a) Storm Cat mares are not the optimal match for A.P. Indy;  b) that despite this, A.P. Indy has improved the Storm Cat mares bred to him (relative to all other sires); and c) only two of the stakes winners on the A.P. Indy/Storm Cat cross are graded, only one winning as high as grade two level (shown on the TrueNicks page which we believe is invaluable information in assessing the worth of the nick).Incidentally, the Broodmare Sire Improvement Index which reveals A.P. Indy is improving the Storm Cat mares, bred to him is a feature unique to TrueNicks.

With those things in mind, and knowing that A.P. Indy sired Rags to Riches out of dam of the mare, one might well consider the chance worth taking, but it's good to have the information at hand before making that choice.

It's interesting to compare Cascading with your other good A.P. Indy filly, Serenading, a stakes winner just the week before, who is bred on the same cross as Rags to Riches - A.P. Indy/Deputy Minister. That cross is TrueNicks rated A++, and has produced two grade one winners.

With regard to looking back further in the pedigree, Better Than Honour (dam of Rags to Riches) is out of a Blushing Groom mare, and A.P. Indy has not been a good combination with Blushing Groom at all. One might suggest that Rags to Riches owes her ability to her outstanding parentage, and the very strong affinity that A.P. Indy has for Deputy Minister mares (reflected in the high nick rating).

to steer a breeder to consider only B or better "True Nick" ratings when planning a mating is folly!!! We would lose some great horses...Barbaro...Dunkirk... Songandaprayer..to name only a few of the countless....if past breeders followed your advice....True Nicks can be a dangerous tool in excluding sires for consideration.

So basically you found a TrueNick Rating of A has an Impace Value of 2.85 on the chances of being a SW, whereas a TrueNick Rating of B has an Impact Value of 2.35?

What's the Impact Value for a score of A+ or better?

What's the Impact Value for a score of C?

Thanks.

Chris,

I'd ask you to re-read what I wrote at the top of this thread: to Quote "Of course there are always situations where particular linebreeding or inbreeding patterns, or physical factors offer compelling reasons to select a mating with a lower rating, but in general, and from the standpoint of the sire/broodmare sire nick, we pay particular attention to matings or horses rated B+ or above"

Other than when I am actually planning matings for them, I have no intention of "steering breeders" in any particular direction, other than that of carefully considering all the factors that weigh into a mating.

The sire line/broodmare sire line cross - whether you measure by TrueNicks, or by some more subjective consideration - is one important factor. We find that at the point that a rating is returning a "B+" or better for a nick, the return of stakes winners to opportunity dramatically increases.

I've planned and recommended matings for horses whose pedigrees yield nicks across the full spectrum of ratings, including a Breeders' Cup winner who is a "D."

However, it still remains extremely useful to me to know how a sire/broodmare sire (or sireline/broodmare sire line cross) performers. I investigated that before planning a mating, long before TrueNicks or any other nicking system existed. However the TrueNicks Broodmare Analysis gives me an objective evaluation of that aspect of the pedigree, with information and data that no one individual could otherwise memorize and evaluate.

Hi Michael,

The variant of 2.85 means that the cross has produced stakes winners at a rate of 2.85 the times that it might have been expected two relative to the number of tries and the quality of the material with which it has been attempted.

The breakouts for the grades are explain on the "About" link on the TrueNicks site - truenicks.com/.../about.aspx - but the A+ rating starts at above 4.0, the C rating is between 0.75 and 1.25.

I have a Housbuster mare that nicks A++ with Werblin. I have done nicks with all the other Unbridled songs in my area OCALA FL and they are all A++. So what else am I to look for except best stud fee available?

Hi Kathy,

Unbridled/Fappiano has been a very good cross for both Housebuster and his sire, Mt. Livermore. Mt. Livermore goes back to a mare bred on a similar cross to Rough'n Tumble, the sire of Dr. Fager, and broodmare sire of In Reality. Housebuster has a cross of Rough'n Tumble through his broodmare sire line.

If your mare is unproven, I might prefer a proven horse; I would look for the best value, which might be not be the least expensive representative of Unbridled; the best physical match for the mare; and on pedigree any additional Rough'n Tumble (besides the Dr. Fager that is in the horse as broodmare sire of Fappiano).

Good luck with you matings.