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Handicapping: Pursuing Saratoga's All-Stakes Pick Five

Dave Litfin analyzes Saturday's graded stakes action from the Spa.

Litfin at Large

Litfin at Large

The Runhappy Travers (G1) at Saratoga Race Course truly is the Midsummer Derby this year, serving as a 170-point qualifier (100-40-20-10) to the rescheduled Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) four weeks down the road.

The Travers caps an all-stakes pick five with a mandatory payout. It begins with the Ballerina Presented By NYRA Bets (G1), a "Win and You're In" event for the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (G1), and is followed by the Troy Stakes (G3T), Waya Stakes (G3T) and Longines Test Stakes (G1).

The field sizes are 7x7x7x6x8, relatively short fields that could limit payoffs but which makes the sequence manageable enough for budget-minded bettors.

Ballerina (Sar, race 7, 3:42 ET): The trust factor is set to "low" due to the possibility of a pace meltdown and some chinks in the armor of just about everyone.

It's true Serengeti Empress (1) ran huge from the rail in the 2019 Test, narrowly missing to eventual dual Eclipse Award winner Covfefe, but she was able to get a clear lead in that race and is really under the gun here with rival speeds Cookie Dough (2) and Letruska (5) outside. 

On paper, the race sets up nicely for Bellafina (4), Pink Sands (6) and/or Come Dancing (7). However, Bellafina has been out of the money in four prior ventures outside Southern California, three of those losses at 9-5 or lower. The deep-closing Pink Sands, meanwhile, has won four of five starts at Gulfstream Park but is 2 for 14 elsewhere (including a maiden win at the Spa). Last year's Ballerina winner Come Dancing is now 6 and hasn't come close to replicating her best form this season.

A — 6, 7
B — 1, 4

Troy (Sar, race 8, 4:22): This is another situation where it's hard to get a handle on some of the logical contenders. 

Morning-line favorite Imprimis (1) shoulders top weight from the rail and has reportedly undergone two corrective throat surgeries since finishing off the board in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1T). He has been in the money once in the past 16 months.

Shekky Shebaz (4) is the second choice largely due to a string of big-figure efforts in 2019 off a trainer change to Jason Servis, who earlier this year was indicted on charges of administering illegal medications to horses in his care. He was a sluggish third in the Wolf Hill Stakes at Monmouth Park when brought back by new trainer Christophe Clement, but note he is in the midst of a terrific summer at the Spa, so a rebound could be forthcoming.

Then there's Pure Sensation (5), a durable runner also trained by Clement. The gray gelding has bankrolled $2 million, which is quite a feat for a turf sprinter, although he surely is getting a bit long in the tooth at age 9.

The best early speed belongs to American Sailor (2), third off the layoff after leading to deep stretch of the Wolf Hill.

The most dangerous closer other than Imprimis looks like Chewing Gum (7), who has recently been made over into a turf sprinter and could get a setup if American Sailor, Shekky Shebaz, and Pure Sensation hook up early.

A — 2, 7
B — 1
C — 4, 5

Waya (Sar, race 9, 5:02): It's highly likely Mrs. Sippy (1) is sitting on go, but 6-5 is an awfully short price to take on a mare that hasn't been out since the Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1T) nine months ago. She was scratched from the New York Stakes (G2T)—won by her stablemate Mean Mary—due to a minor setback, and then scratched from the Robert G. Dick Memorial Stakes when it was rained off the turf three weeks later.

Standing in the way of the favorite are the Chad Brown-trained duo of My Sister Nat (4), who was compromised by a lack of pace when up for second in the New York, and Fools Gold (7), who ran near the front early en route to winning the 2019 Waya and looks to be in the driver's seat pace-wise second off the bench.

A — 4, 7
B — 1

Test (Sar, race 10, 5:39): A showdown for the lead looms between Gamine (5), who comes off a freakishly fast win in the Longines Acorn Stakes (G1), and Venetian Harbor (6), who has been on the lead in all three starts this year including a win in the Las Virgenes Stakes (G2) and placings in the Fantasy Stakes (G3) and Central Bank Ashland Stakes (G1).

Gamine could bounce and still win, but Venetian Harbor is no slouch and has tactical options drawn outside the favorite beneath Joel Rosario, who has been riding in peak form.

In the event of a pace collapse, the late runner we're most interested in is Up in Smoke (1), who has won four of five sprints. The only loss came last time out in the Victory Ride Stakes (G3), when the winner, Frank's Rockette, got away with slow early fractions.

A — 5, 6
B — 1

Travers (Sar, race 11, 6:15): As a three-time grade 1 winner whose three most accomplished rivals each boast a single grade 3 title, this would seem like a slam dunk for Tiz the Law  (6). After all, the New York-bred son of Constitution  is unbeaten from five starts on fast tracks, with wins in the Champagne Stakes(G1), Curlin Florida Derby (G1) and a reconfigured Belmont Stakes Presented By NYRA Bets (G1).

But we just don't know what the ceiling for Uncle Chuck  (3) might be after two blowout wins to begin his career for Bob Baffert, who has won three Travers including a track-record run by Arrogate in 2016 in his stakes debut.

Uncle Chuck has Arrogate beat in that regard, as his win in the Los Alamitos Derby (G3) came at the expense of multiple stakes-winning barn mate Thousand Words , who returned to beat the highly regarded Honor A.P. in the Shared Belief Stakes last Saturday. Even though Baffert has remarked that Uncle Chuck reminds him of Arrogate because of their similar ground-eating strides, it also bears mention the latter had four starts under his belt prior to the Travers.

Uncle Chuck has outrun his pedigree to some degree, as dam Forest Music was a multiple sprint stakes winner—including the 2005 Honorable Miss Stakes (G2) at Saratoga—who never won past six furlongs.

If things have played out nicely through the first four legs it would be nice to have additional coverage in case that pesky "Graveyard of Favorites" thing kicks in. The backups are Country Grammer  (2), Max Player  (4) and Caracaro  (7).

Country Grammer and Caracaro brawled through the stretch of the Peter Pan on opening day, and their connections probably wish they had more time leading up to this.

Max Player lagged too far back when along for third in the Belmont. That was his first start since winning the Withers Stakes (G3) on the first day of February, and he is entitled to move forward.

A — 3, 6
B — 2, 4, 7