The last of the points qualifiers for the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) will be run April 10 as Concert Tour heads the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park and Proxy likely goes favored in the $200,000 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland.
Weather shouldn't be much of a factor in Hot Springs, where the Arkansas Derby is part of a pick five that begins with the $400,000 Oaklawn Mile Stakes and goes through the $500,000 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3), which reigning sprint champion Whitmore will try to win for the fourth time in the last five years.
Concert Tour, who picked up 50 qualifying points winning the Rebel Stakes (G2), could leapfrog Essential Quality atop the point standings if he remains unbeaten and adds 100 more points to his account. Concert Tour faces five rivals and will be a stand-alone in the Arkansas Derby, while many players will try to get through the Count Fleet using just Whitmore and C Z Rocket, who edged the champ in the Hot Springs Stakes last month.
At Keeneland, a 70% chance for scattered storms could impact an all-stakes pick four that starts off with the Ben Ali Stakes (G3) and the $100,000 Giant's Causeway Stakes, and concludes with the Lexington and the $300,000 Coolmore Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1T).
Lexington (Kee, race 9, 5:30 ET): Depending on when they were run, where they were run, and what types of races they were, handicappers this season have been tip-toeing through a minefield of on-again, off-again Lasix horses. The 10 Lexington entrants have compiled a remarkable 12-for-13 record on Lasix but they are just 6-for-29 without it.
Those win records don't tell the whole story. Proxy (7), for example, won maiden and allowance races back to back on Lasix at the end of 2020, and while he has been beaten in three Lasix-free Derby preps he still recorded his three fastest speed figures, any of which makes him the one to beat Saturday.
Proxy is 20th with 34 Derby points so could need the winner's 20 points to be assured of a berth in the Derby, though trainer Mike Stidham called the Derby unlikely in a BloodHorse interview earlier this week. He may get over the track nicely judging from a best-of-64 bullet workout April 4.
An interesting thing is that all the speed horses—Noble Reflection (1), Swiftsure (2), and Bezos (3)—are drawn inside, and they are all stretching out for their initial stakes tries. Bezos is ostensibly "slowest" of the trio based on two races thus far, but the buzz surrounding this Bob Baffert-trained colt was so strong that he was pegged at 26-1 in Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Futures Wager before he had even run a single race.
Bezos promptly took a pratfall finishing off the board at six furlongs while neglecting to change leads in his debut, but the son of Empire Maker was much more professional when stretched out to two turns for a maiden win with blinkers off a few weeks later. Baffert is on record as being in no hurry with this guy, and recall that Arrogate got beat at 1-2 odds going six panels first out before going on a seven-race win streak, including scores at the highest levels.
A — 3, 7
B — 1, 2
Jenny Wiley (Kee, race 10, 6:03 ET): Trainer Chad Brown has swept the last three runnings of this race and has won it four times overall, and he has solid chances yet again with Tamahere (2) and Etoile (4), a couple of French-bred imports who made a splash winning important North American stakes races last fall. Tamahere was a handy winner of the Sands Point Stakes (G2T) first time in the United States, which led to a wide trip as a disappointing sixth in the Matriarch Stakes (G1T). She won on soft turf overseas and so did Etoile, who has posted all four of her victories on non-firm ground including the E.P. Taylor Stakes (G1T) at Woodbine to cap off 2020.
Along with Tamahere, two others make their first appearance since the Matriarch—Juliet Foxtrot (3), the probable pacesetter in a compact six-horse field; and Maxim Rate (5), an appealing 10-1 on the morning line.
Maxim Rate won her first three starts when paired with Umberto Rispoli, climaxed by a decisive score in the Goldikova Stakes (G2T), but then had nowhere to go through upper stretch of the Matriarch after running the fastest third-quarter fraction in the race. She is vastly improved since her only prior Keeneland appearance in the 2019 Pin Oak Valley View Stakes (G3T).
Micheline (1), a half-sister to Proxy, captured the Exacta Systems Dueling Grounds Oaks last year over a trio of next-out winners, notably Harvey's Lil Goil, who then took the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes Presented By Dixiana (G1T). Micheline was a close second in the QE II and picked up a win in her first time back in the Hillsborough Stakes (G2T).
A — 2, 5
B — 1, 4
Oaklawn Mile (OP, race 9, 5:49 ET): The marquee name and morning-line choice is By My Standards (6), a four-time grade 2 winner last year including the Oaklawn Handicap (G2).
It would be no surprise if By My Standards is ready for his first start since encountering traffic in the Clark Presented By Norton Healthcare (G1), but we're focusing on another comebacker in the form of Rushie (4).
The way the track was playing Breeders' Cup Saturday, Rushie had little chance in the Big Ass Fans Dirt Mile (G1) chasing Knicks Go while well removed from a golden rail. Away from Keeneland last year, though, Rushie won three of five starts and the defeats were a second to Charlatan and a third in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) behind Honor A.P. and eventual Horse Of the Year Authentic .
From a pace perspective this race shapes up well for both Rushie and By My Standards, as there is ample early speed to set the table. But while the mile distance is right up Rushie's alley, it may be a tad short for By My Standards.
A — 4
B — 6
