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Handicapping: Like the Weather, Stakes Action Heats Up

Dave Litfin provides his insights for stakes races across North America June 19.

Litfin at Large

Litfin at Large

Summer doesn't officially begin until June 20, but the day before will sure feel like summer as temperatures soar into the 90s on both coasts and in the Midwest. The stakes menu is light June 19, with the San Juan Capistrano Stakes (G3T) at Santa Anita Park and Whimsical Stakes (G3) at Woodbine the only graded events in North America. The Whimsical is preceded by the $125,000 Star Shoot Stakes for 3-year-old fillies, as racing in Ontario gets underway at long last.

There are some interesting $150,000 restricted races for 3-year-olds in New York and California: The Cupecoy's Joy and Spectacular Bid divisions of the New York Stallion Series at Belmont Park; and the Snow Chief Stakes and Melair Stakes for California-breds at Santa Anita.

There's also the Roxelana Overnight Stakes at Churchill Downs, the Martha Washington Stakes at Gulfstream Park, and the Get Serious Stakes at Monmouth Park.

We've got some quick takes on them all in chronological order, all times ET.

Cupecoy's Joy (Bel, race 6, 3:34): Ava's Grace (10) stands out off a solid second in the Fantasy Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park, but she was then scratched from the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) and shows a 38-day gap between workouts from late April to June 1. The daughter of recently deceased sire Laoban is not bred for turf (four siblings were a combined 0 for 8 on grass), and we're leaving her off our tickets with a spread play using Show Me the Honey (1), Proper Grammer (2), Shaker Shack (3), Sport Model (4), Funwhileitlasted (5), and Big Time Lady (6).

A — 1, 3
B — 2, 4, 5 ,6

Get Serious (Mth, race 9, 4:05): The Critical Way (7) will go favored after being nailed in the closing strides of the Jim McKay Turf Sprint Stakes by Firecrow, who set a five-furlong course record of :55.30. The Critical Way is obvious and so is second choice Francatelli (1), who is 2-1-0 from three turf sprints on firm ground, beginning with a maiden victory over this course. Perhaps those two will hook up early and set the table for Boldor (6), who was shuffled back entering the turn in the Jim McKay and regrouped to finish well.

A — 6
B — 1, 7

Star Shoot (WO, race 7, 4:28): Mark Casse trains four of the eight entrants and Mike Trombetta sends out two of the others, but Josie Carroll has the one to beat in Drunk Dial (7), who notched a fast win over the synthetic surface when unveiled last fall. An interesting price play is Can't Buy Love (6), who was claimed by Trombetta for $75,000 three back. Can't Buy Love has been a turf sprinter up to now, but bullet works at Fair Hill indicate she may take to this track.

A — 7
B — 6

Spectacular Bid (Bel, race 9, 5:12): A baker's dozen entered for turf, but it's hard to get a line on this race until we know whether morning-line favorite Step Dancer (13) is held out in favor of the $100,000 Manila Stakes July 4. If you're looking for a longshot, Thunderbird Cafe (3) at 15-1 has an often productive form-pattern angle: Improved race second out, followed by improved works. I will try to get him on the board surrounded by the favorite (if he goes) as well as Dancing Buck (2), Ocala Dream (4), Dreamer's Disease (6), The King Cheek (7), and Hold the Salsa (11).

A — 3, 11, 13
B — 2, 4, 6, 7

Roxelana (CD, race 10, 5:26): Four Graces (3) was odds-on against Sconsin (5) twice last year, but she will be third choice here behind the latter and Bell's the One (4) first time out since coming up empty in the Lexus Raven Run (G2). Four Graces has won off works and boasts a serious tab climaxed by six furlongs in 1.11.40 at Churchill, where she is 2-1-0 from three starts. She can get the jump on her main rivals in this short field of six.

A — 3
B — 4, 5

Whimsical (WO, race 9, 5:31): Artie's Princess (7) and Boardroom (8) square off as they make their first appearances since finishing one-two in a photo in the Bessarabian Stakes (G2) last November. Artie's Princess is 5-1-0 from six starts at Woodbine, but Boardroom might be undefeated were it not for poor racing luck in both the Bessarabian—when she ran up into a blind switch entering the turn and had to check and circle widest—and also in the Ruling Angel Stakes, when she finished third after a rein broke at the start. They will both have to catch Golden Ami (5), who wired a 6 1/2-furlong allowance in 1:14.53 last fall, just .09 seconds off the Woodbine track record.

A — 7, 8
B — 5

Martha Washington (GP, race 11, 5:35): Karakatsie (3) is the only one with stakes experience and also the only one who's been racing without Lasix recently. Her second to Con Lima in the Honey Ryder Stakes last out looks even better after the latter returned to win the Wonder Again Stakes (G3T). Charges Dropped (5) improved when taken farther off the pace for a maiden win with blinkers added and has since posted two bullet works. Hana Lima (2), Lady Emily (4), and Tik Tok Famous (7) all looked good in last-out maiden victories.

A — 3, 5
B — 2, 4
C — 7

Snow Chief (SA, race 9, 8:00): None Above the Law (2) is the 9-5 choice stretching out to 1 1/8 miles on the turf course, and among his eight rivals are six that ran in a one-mile allowance/optional claimer May 14. Big Talker (4) and Cargo (8) were third and fifth, respectively, but finished with interest after some bumping in upper stretch. Big Talker is the only entrant who has been the distance. Cargo is a son of Point of Entry , a five-time grade 1 winner from 1 1/8 to 1 1/2 miles. 

A — 2, 4
B — 8

Melair (SA, race 10, 8:30): Fi Fi Pharoah (3) improved for a maiden win when placed closer to the early pace by Umberto Rispoli, and she also beat some of these when second in the Evening Jewel Stakes three back. Pawnee (1) and Eddie's New Dream (6) appear the biggest threats, while potential bomb Misty Cat (7) has faced open company at Golden Gate Fields in her last five tries.

A — 3
B — 1, 6, 7

San Juan Capistrano (SA, race 11, 9:00): Trainer Phil D'Amato sends out the last two winners of this marathon at 1 3/4 miles, Red King (2) and Acclimate (4). The latter will set the pace but is without a win over the past 22 months and has surrendered seven clear leads during that stretch. Ward 'n Jerry (3) battled through enervating fractions and faded to third as the 7-10 choice in last year's edition, but figures right there provided rider Flavien Prat sticks with the stalking tactics that produced wins in his last two outings. Pillar Mountain (5) joins the barn of Bob Hess Jr. after claimed for $35,000 when notching his second straight score under Joe Bravo at Gulfstream. The ex-Todd Pletcher runner has some back figures in stakes company that are competitive.

A — 2, 3
B — 4, 5