Florida Horses White Hot in Derby Dozen Rankings

1. Rattle N Roll Owner/Trainer: Lucky Seven Stable/Kenny McPeek Pedigree: Connect—Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg Breeder: St. Simon Place (KY) In years past, a 15-length score in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) from a horse like Messier would have vaulted such a 3-year-old toward the top of the Derby Dozen, but not in 2022 with Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert suspended by Churchill Downs Inc. Barring a change in the status of Baffert trainees (i.e. barn switch, legal action), no cracking the 'Dozen for such types for now. Clinging to the top spot is the Kenny McPeek-trained Rattle N Roll, who took the Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland. He worked a half-mile in :48.66 Feb. 5 at Gulfstream Park toward an anticipated return in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2) March 12. 2. Smile Happy Lucky Seven Stable/Kenny McPeek Runhappy—Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap Moreau Bloodstock International and White Bloodstock (KY) Right behind Rattle N Roll is stablemate Smile Happy, who is a few weeks ahead in his training. Smile Happy worked five furlongs in :59.52 Feb. 5 at Gulfstream Park as he gears up to head to Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots for the Feb. 19 Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Ford (G2). Though not in racing action last week, his stock rose on the form-flattering victory from White Abarrio in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3). The latter was third behind Smile Happy in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). 3. Zandon Jeff Drown/Chad Brown Upstart—Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause Brereton Jones (KY) He has remained on a steady winter schedule at Payson Park, topped by a five-furlong move there this past week in 1:01 1/5 as he readies for the Risen Star. Last week's Holy Bull at Gulfstream provided a barometer on this colt when Mo Donegal, a nose in front of him in the Remsen Stakes (G2) in December, finished a respectable third. He acts like trainer Chad Brown's best hope for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1), though Brown also has Withers Stakes (G3) winner Early Voting on the trail. Watch: White Abarrio, In Due Time Join Derby Dozen 4. White Abarrio C2 Racing Stable and La Milagrosa Stable/Saffie Joseph Jr. Race Day—Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief Spendthrift Farm (KY) As dominant as he was in the Holy Bull, note his leading foes had excuses. Simplification and Mo Donegal broke slowly, Giant Game displaced his soft palate, and Tiz the Bomb faltered with the surface switch from turf to dirt. Still, White Abarrio didn't win by a neck, but 4 1/2 lengths, running a 102 Equibase Speed Figure. And, it was he that had the troubled trip when he showed in the Kentucky Jockey Club last fall at Churchill Downs. 5. Mo Donegal Donegal Racing/Todd Pletcher Uncle Mo—Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit Ashview Farm and Colts Neck Stables (KY) Off a beat slowly in the short-stretch 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull, he secured what seemed decent position down the backstretch to race in fifth, only to be out-quickened late on the backstretch and early in the second turn when in a bit of traffic. Looking as if he might finish off the board, he ultimately found his stride in the lane to be third, nearly catching Simplification for second. Anticipate him moving forward at 1 1/8 miles and with a full stretch. 6. Epicenter Winchell Thoroughbreds/Steve Asmussen Not This Time—Silent Candy, by Candy Ride (ARG) Westwind Farms (KY) Of the horses exiting the Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds, his runner-up performance most caught the eye given the fast fractions he threw down and his gritty effort down the stretch. The waters grow deeper in the Risen Star with several big-name members of the 'Dozen expected to come to town. He, Pappacap, and the other locals will have the edge of training in New Orleans through the winter. 7. Simplification Tami Bobo/Antonio Sano Not This Time—Simply Confection, by Candy Ride France Weiner and Irwin Weiner (FL) This frontrunner blew the break in the Holy Bull but still managed to run second. Patiently handled after the tardy beginning, the colt launched a wide advance to move into contention on the second turn, only to flatten out in the stretch while not switching leads, just having enough left to hold off Mo Donegal for the place. This was a highly encouraging performance in his first start around two turns. 8. Emmanuel WinStar Farm and Siena Farm/Todd Pletcher More Than Ready—Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY) After a first-out score going a one-turn mile at Gulfstream, he passed a two-turn test racing a mile and 40 yards against first-level allowance optional claiming company Jan. 30 at Tampa Bay Downs. Able to get away with setting comfortable splits of :25.03 and :49.88, he had plenty left to turn back an early stretch challenge from Glider to pull away by 4 1/2 lengths. He elevated his Equibase Speed Figure from a debut 92 to a second-out 98. 9. Slow Down Andy Reddam Racing/Doug O'Neill Nyquist—Edwina E, by Square Eddie Reddam Racing (CA) Due to CDI's suspension of Baffert, the Doug O'Neill-trained Slow Down Andy is the top-rated 'Dozen 3-year-old training in California. This colt beat Messier in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), and Messier, in turn, walloped a short field in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park last week. Slow Down Andy takes his show on the road for the Risen Star next, O'Neill said. 10. Pappacap Rustlewood Farm/Mark Casse Gun Runner—Pappascat, by Scat Daddy Rustlewood Farm (FL) After several inside trips in his recent starts, trainer Mark Casse is eager to see what this colt can do if able to run freely on the outside. Perhaps this colt will find a little more of a burst. He fired when diving inside for a stretch rally in the Lecomte, though his bid evened out and resulted in him finishing third. He's yet to win in three starts going two turns, though those losses were the Lecomte and in two runner-up finishes last year in grade 1s behind Corniche (yet to work in 2022). 11. Classic Causeway Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper/Brian Lynch Giant's Causeway—Private World, by Thunder Gulch Kentucky West Racing and Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY) He has shown his quality with a couple of graded placings when matched against horses in the 'Dozen. He was third to Rattle N Roll in the Breeders' Futurity and second to Smile Happy in the Kentucky Jockey Club, ahead of White Abarrio. He has maintained a regular work tab in Florida this winter and is pointed to swing back into action Feb. 12 in the Sam. F. Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa. 12. In Due Time Edge Racing/Kelly Breen Not This Time—Sweet Sweet Annie, by Curlin Gary & Mary West Stables (KY) Showing improvement from his seasonal debut when third Jan. 8 in a six-furlong sprint, this colt was a little slow into stride in a mile allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Feb. 4, but quickly rebounded to stalk the pace of favored American Icon. Once in the stretch, he powered away from the chalk by 5 3/4 lengths. His time of 1:35.97 earned him a stakes-quality 100 ESF; pedigree suggests he should handle two turns.