Hard to Figure, Henry Q Battle in Sunland Park Derby

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is having to sit out this year's Kentucky Derby (G1) due to a ban Churchill Downs placed on him for equine medication positives, but the Hall of Fame trainer may be able to win a lucrative prep elsewhere in the lead-up to the Run for the Roses. His trainee Hard to Figure looms as a short-priced public choice March 26 in the $600,000 Sunland Park Derby (G3). Favored at 2-1 on the morning line, he figures to dip even lower by post time, as Fort Bragg, one of the other morning-line favorites, is expected to scratch. His trainer, Tim Yakteen, told Daily Racing Form Fort Bragg is skipping the Sunland Park race to run in the April 1 Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park. The 1 1/8-mile Sunland Park Derby potentially offers Kentucky Derby (G1) qualifying points on a 50-20-15-10-5 scale to its top-five finishers, half of point totals of other domestic Derby preps this weekend, though only two of the projected six starters are currently eligible to receive points. In addition to Hard to Figure being ineligible, How Did He Do That, Henry Q, and Wild On Ice are not Triple Crown nominated. Should any of that trio become late Triple Crown nominees, however, requiring a $6,000 fee by March 27, they could pick up points from their respective finishes on Sunday. Hard to Figure, owned by Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman, comes off a close second in the Feb. 4 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita Park. The Hard Spun colt is 1-1-2 in five overall starts, with his one victory in the restricted Capote Stakes last fall at Los Alamitos Race Course. His Robert B. Lewis performance, in which he pressed the early pace, resulted in a neck defeat in a quick race behind the now-sidelined Newgate. Henry Q is the 3-1 second choice after 14 3/4-length frontrunning score at Sunland Park in the Feb. 28 Mine That Bird Derby, the final local prep for the Sunland Derby. That marked his first start for New Mexico-based trainer Todd Fincher, winner of the 2018 Sunland Derby with Runaway Ghost. Henry Q had previously won a maiden optional claimer in Southern California in his third start for then-trainer Doug O'Neill. The Blame colt races for The Del Mar Group, a partnership that includes college sports coaches Rick Pitino, Chip Kelly, and Mick Cronin. The Sunland Park Derby has produced just one Kentucky Derby winner: Mine That Bird, who rallied up the rail to a 50-1 upset in the 2009 Run for the Roses after a fourth-place finish in the Sunland Park Derby. Years later, Firing Line ran second to American Pharoah in the 2015 Kentucky Derby after winning the Sunland Park Derby. Also Sunday at Sunland are six supporting stakes, topped by the $300,000 Sunland Park Oaks, a Kentucky Oaks (G1) prep. Local stakes winner Flying Connection is the 9-5 morning-line favorite in the Sunland Park Oaks over Southern California shipper and 2-1 second choice Doinitthehardway. Five other 3-year-old fillies are in the 1 1/16-mile race.