At a Glance: Nysos a Standout in Sunday's San Felipe

The $300,000, San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park has traditionally been an important prep race on the Southern California road to the Kentucky Derby (G1), but it appears this year will be different. Three of the five San Felipe starters are trained by Bob Baffert, and Churchill Downs Inc. has extended its ban of any Baffert-trained horses from competing at its tracks through the upcoming Churchill Downs spring-summer meet. The 1 1/16-mile San Felipe offers qualifying points for the 150th Kentucky Derby to the top five finishers on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale, which means that just making the starting gate for the 2024 San Felipe will secure the two horses not trained by Baffert—Scatify and Mc Vay—some Derby points. However, it's possible that the top three finishers could be the Baffert trio, led by overwhelming favorite Nysos, which could take 50 to 90 of those points off the table unless an upset occurs. This race will still be a good barometer of how well Baffert's group is progressing, especially Nysos as he prepares for a possible start in the May 18 Preakness Stakes (G1). The San Felipe was originally scheduled for March 2 but was moved with the rest of Santa Anita's Card to March 3 because of a forecast of rain during the early weekend. 1. Scatify (6-1 morning-line odds): Justifycolt won first out at Los Alamitos Race Track in December and then set the early pace in the Feb. 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita before tiring and finishing third, 8 1/4 lengths behind Nysos but only three-quarters of a length behind runner-up Wine Me Up. Improvement in start number three can get him into the exacta. JOCKEY: Hector Berrios; TRAINER: John Sadler 2. Wine Me Up (8-1): Impressed in his debut last fall sprinting at Del Mar, but after that, he's failed to break through in four consecutive graded stakes, finishing second twice behind stablemates Muth (in October) and Nysos (last out in the Robert B. Lewis) and eighth and fourth in the other two attempts. Seems to have plateaued as a member of Baffert's second string. JOCKEY: Juan Hernandez; TRAINER: Bob Baffert 3. Nysos (1-5): Answered whether he could handle two turns in his first start of 2024 by posting a dominant 7 1/2-length win in the one-mile Robert B. Lewis over Wine Me Up. Towers over this field (and the rest of the 3-year-old division nationwide as it stands) in terms of speed figures and will be heavily favored to improve to 4-for-4 Sunday. Hard to see him losing against this bunch. JOCKEY: Flavien Prat; TRAINER: Bob Baffert 4. Mc Vay (20-1): Still a maiden after three starts, and despite being winless was entered in the Robert B. Lewis last out where he was one-paced and finished fourth, 12 1/2 lengths behind Nysos. Figures to trail in fifth early on and will be hard-pressed to improve much from that position. JOCKEY: Antonio Fresu; TRAINER: John Shirreffs 5. Imagination (6-1): Has yet to finish worse than second in any of his four starts. After winning his 2024 debut on New Year's Day in a one-mile Santa Anita maiden race, he took the lead in the stretch during a one-mile allowance-optional claimer Feb. 11 at "the Great Race Place" only to float out late and then lose by a neck to another highly regarded Baffert trainee, Maymun. A logical exacta/trifecta filler in this race behind Nysos. JOCKEY: Frankie Dettori; TRAINER: Bob Baffert THE PICK: Nysos TRIFECTA: 3-1-5