Return of the Presidential Bump at Keeneland?

Based on gross sales through the first three books of the 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, it looks like the auction is well positioned to overcome a recent trend of that total declining in years we elect a President. Yet while our industry focus is on the first two days of November—the dates of the Breeders' Cup World Championships—based on the constant robo-texts I receive from Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, it seems that a few others are concerned with an election scheduled for the first Tuesday in November. As all of these dates draw closer, the Keeneland September sale has registered a 4.8% increase in gross sales through its first three books when compared with the corresponding sessions of 2023. That means this sale is poised to become the first in five Presidential election years—dating to 2004—to see an increase in gross in that year. We're just about to the point we can breathe a sigh of relief over that one. OK, OK, I'm not really convinced one number has much, or anything, to do with the other. Ahead of the 2016 election I looked at sales numbers, and the only thing that caught my eye was that the average price had been up in four of the five previous elections. I speculated that perhaps that was a sign of optimism in election years? But in 2016 the average and the gross would be down, as they would be in the COVID year of 2020. That would add up to the gross numbers in the past four elections all being down. So much for that optimism linked to Presidential election years. Still, just in case any concerns were building about the current negative trend in gross sales during election years, it appears 2024 will put an end to those. In the industry, we'll take it. As for who is going to win? Only a spin doctor would see any meaningful numbers here. One would correctly note that in two of the past three years in which sale average was up, the Republican candidate won. But such reasoning is countered by the statistical insight of Pete Rose, who once pointed out something along the lines of: If a baseball writer asked why I had only two hits in my past 12 at-bats, I knew I had at least three hits in my past 13. And so it goes: A Democrat has won the Presidency in two of the past four years that average improved at Keeneland. Or you may view it as a Republican has won the Presidency in two of the past four years that average improved at Keeneland. That one might depend on who is looking at the numbers. So view all of these figures and trends as you will, but we're not seeing a crystal ball beyond some good feelings for the industry. * The 2024 figures are for the first three books and those percentages are compared with the first three books of 2023; for all other years percentage changes compare listed year to previous year's sale.