Pedigree Analysis of 2024's Top 10 Third-Crop Sires

The new sire intake of 2019 was exceptionally well-credentialed, featuring a Triple Crown winner who was Horse of the Year and champion 3-year-old; a champion 2-year-old; a champion older horse; a second Kentucky Derby (G1) winner; a Preakness Stakes (G1) winner; and a Belmont Stakes (G1) winner. They have wasted little time in establishing themselves, with two having sired classic winners, and three already having Eclipse Award winners among their progeny. As the only undefeated Triple Crown winner, Justify started as the leader of the group, covered the strongest group of mares, and not surprisingly has emerged on top. He leads by cumulative progeny earnings, number of stakes winners, and number of graded stakes winners. He quickly established himself as an international force with champions in North American and Europe, and a freshman sire premiership in Australia for good measure. Justify's best include City of Troy, who is European 2023 champion 2-year-old colt and winner of the Epsom Derby (G1) at 3; Eclipse Award-winning champion 2-year-old filly Just FYI; 2023 European champion 2-year-old filly Opera Singer; Ramatuelle, 2023 champion 2-year-old filly in France and spectacular conqueror of older males this year in the Prix de La Foret (G1); and Hard to Justify, who took the 2023 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1T). The preponderance of his best runners so far have been turf performers, but that in part reflects the aptitude of a high proportion of the mares bred to him. He has been represented on the dirt by not only Just FYI, but also another grade 1 scorer, Arabian Lion, and other graded scorers Verifying, Just Cindy, Champions Dream, and Elwood Blues. It's worth remembering, too, that Justify's own sire, Scat Daddy, was strongly identified as a turf sire until Justify came along. A few pedigree trends are already appearing among Justify's best runners, with seven stakes winners, including City of Troy out of mares by Galileo, and five out of mares by Fastnet Rock (a Danehill son who gives the combination of Storm Cat and his close relative Royal Academy). There are three stakes winners out of mares Bernardini, and Ramatuelle and Hard to Justify are out of mares by Raven's Pass and Quality Road, both by Elusive Quality. Good Magic (Curlin), the champion 2-year-old male of 2017, chased Justify across the line in the Kentucky Derby, and he's Justify's nearest pursuer among the third-crop sires of 2024. Starting at a relatively modest fee of $35,000—he stands at $125,000 for 2025—he has sired 21 stakes winners, including the classic-winning full brothers Dornoch and Mage, successful in the Belmont Stakes and Kentucky Derby, respectively; Blazing Sevens, who won the Champagne Stakes (G1) at 2, and missed by just a head in the Preakness Stakes; the Pacific Classic Stakes (G1) scorer Mixto; Arkansas Derby (G1) victor Muth; and seven other graded scorers. Six of his juveniles have taken graded stakes, but they clearly stretch out to classic distance at 3. The colts have been significantly better than the fillies to date, although these things often level out. Looking at the broodmare sires of Good Magic's best winners, the Storm Cat line has been particularly notable, including through Tale of the Cat, Forest Wildcat, Scat Daddy, and Harlan's Holiday. Dornoch and Mage (Big Brown) and Mixto (Concerto) are bred on the pattern that crosses Good Magic back over his own broodmare sire line, that of Danzig. The Unbridled branch of Fappiano is represented through Empire Maker (One Magic Philly) and Unbridled's Song via Rockport Harbor (Vegas Magic); Tiznow and his son Colonel John are both featured broodmare sires (Magic Cross and Society Man, respectively); while Muth is out of a mare by Uncle Mo, and Blazing Sevens from a daughter of Warrior's Reward (Medaglia d'Oro). Winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1T) at 2, and a runaway UAE Derby (G2) scorer, Mendelssohn is a Scat Daddy half brother to Into Mischief and Beholder. Those credentials brought him mares aplenty, and of the third-crop sires he's had the most Northern Hemisphere foals and most career starters. He's also upheld his end of the deal with the sire crop's most career winners with 213, nearly 50 clear of the next highest-ranked by this category, his Ashford Stud mate Justify. Mendelssohn has 15 career stakes winners, four graded. The Smart Strike line seems to be a favorite, as he has a stakes winner out of a Smart Strike mare, and two, including the UAE Two Thousand Guineas (G3) winner Mendelssohn Bay, out of mares by Smart Strike's son Curlin. There are two Mendelssohn stakes winners out of Danzig line mares; a graded winner out of a mare by Ghostzapper and a stakes winner out of a mare by his sire, Awesome Again; and the grade 2 winner Delight is out of a mare by Medaglia d'Oro. City of Lightwas the hottest horse of this bunch—Justify apart—with his first yearlings. That crop seemed a little anticlimactic in the light of expectations, but stepped up to deliver eight stakes winners, three graded. More significantly, the second crop featured Fierceness—2023 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) scorer and champion at 2, and arguably the best of his division again at 3 with wins in the Travers Stakes (G1), Florida Derby (G1) and Jim Dandy Stakes (G2), and a valiant second in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). City of Light's sophomores also included Formidable Man, who won the Hollywood Derby (G1). Fierceness, his graded stakes-winning brother, Mentee, and another City of Light stakes winner, Light of Broadway, are all out of mares by Bernardini's son Stay Thirsty. Formidable Man is out of a mare by Silent Name from the Sunday Silence branch of Halo, and there is a graded winner out of a mare by Kitten's Joy and a stakes winner out of a mare by Medaglia d'Oro, both by El Prado. The multiple graded stakes-winning filly Chop Chop is out of a mare by Giant's Causeway, whose sire, Storm Cat, plays into the Northern Dancer/Somethingroyal background of City of Light's dam. We'll also note, that like his sire, Quality Road is turning out to be a very viable turf option. A son of Medaglia d'Oro, Bolt d'Oro, was the leading freshman sire among horses that retired for the 2019 breeding season. That crop eventually yielded no less than 11 stakes winners, including now-millionaire Major Dude, and other graded scorers Ruby Nell, Instant Coffee, Boppy O, and Bold Discovery. The second crop was headlined by Beholder's daughter Tamara, a brilliant winner of the Del Mar Debutante Stakes (G1) at 2. As far as successful crosses, we can particularly note Storm Cat through Hennessy (Henny Hughes and Scat Daddy) and Into Mischief; Fappiano via Unbridled's Song and Quiet American; other Mr. Prospector via Distorted Humor, Not For Love, and Speightstown; Uncle Mo and Arch. Like his sire, Bolt d'Oro is a surface-versatile stallion, and he's one where we should look to for a strong result from his 2024 crop, the first following his freshman title. A world-record-breaking miler and four-time group 1 winner, Oscar Performance, was the turf star amongst this intake. He's by Kitten's Joy, a 2004 champion turf horse who went on to earn honors as two-time general leading sire and six-time leading turf sire. Oscar Performance has already had graded winners on turf, dirt, and all-weather surfaces with Trikari in the Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes (G1T), three-time graded stakes winning sprint filly Red Carpet Ready, and Endlessly in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). Trikari is out of a Harlan's Holiday mare, and there are already two graded scorers out of daughters of Street Sense. Collected (City Zip), who won the 2017 Pacific Classic Stakes (G1), has quietly compiled a very solid record, with five stakes winners in his first crop, nine in his second, and three more in his third (the 2-year-olds of 2024). He has six graded scorers, three at the grade 2 level, and although his chief earner of 2024, Henro, is a dirt horse, he has several talented turfers. For a horse who kicked off at $12,500 and is available for $5,000 in 2025, Uncle Mo's son Mo Town has made a remarkable start and has to be the current value standout here. He's already been represented by 12 stakes winners, including graded scorers Mystic Lake, Key of Life, Play the Music, Mo Stash, and Accidental Hero. An undefeated grade 1 winner, but by the regional A.P. Indy horse Friesan Fire, Army Mule has thrown runners more to his race-record than his pedigree. He has 13 stakes winners, 10 from his first crop, including the grade 1 winner One in Vermillion. There were only 38 foals in his second crop, but three of those won stakes, too. The top 10 are rounded out by Girvin, a grade 1-winning son of the Tale of the Cat horse Tale of Ekati. He began his career in Florida and led off with a crop that produced eight stakes winners, including grade 1 scorer Faiza and grade 2 winners Damon's Mound and Dorth Vader, and grade 1-placed multiple stakes winner Closethegame Sugar. There are four stakes winners in Girvin's second crop, and another in his third crop. We look for him to take off again in 2026 when his first Kentucky crop reaches the races.