Race Distance Makes Skippylongstocking Top Pegasus Pick

The $3 Million Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (G1) Feb. 25 at Gulfstream Park brings together a field of 12 in what should be an exhilarating race at the distance of 1 1/8 miles, with seven of the dozen entrants having earned $1 million or more in their racing careers. Leading the field in earnings is White Abarrio ($5.2 million earner), winner of eight races in 19 starts. White Abarrio finished eighth in the 2023 Pegasus World Cup but went on to win the 2023 Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). White Abarrio enters this year's race off a troubled second-place effort in the Mr. Prospector Stakes (G3) in December. Skippylongstocking leads the field in career wins with nine (in 28 starts) and has more than $3 million in earnings. After being pulled up and not finishing in this race last year, Skippylongstocking has won three of seven including the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) and Charles Town Classic Stakes (G2) at the distance of the Pegasus. Mystik Dan ($4.1 million), the winner of the 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1), has won three of 10 races and makes his second start following a layoff of more than six months. He returned four weeks ago to finish sixth in the Malibu Stakes (G1). Saudi Crown ($3.1 million) won the Tenacious Stakes last month in his second start back off a layoff. As a 3-year-old, Saudi Crown captured the 2023 Pennsylvania Derby (G1) to prove he belongs at this level. Locked is another making his third start off a layoff, having won two in a row including the Cigar Mile Handicap (G2) Dec. 7. Stronghold ($1.1 million) has finished first or second in nine of 10 career starts, with his biggest win coming in the grade 1 Santa Anita Derby last April. He recently finished second in the Malibu and could improve off that effort. Mixto won the grade 1 Pacific Classic Stakes last summer before an 11th-place effort in the Breeders' Cup Classic, but he showed good form when third in the Native Diver Stakes (G3) in his final Pegasus tune-up. Newgrange ($1 million) has won seven of 15 starts but hasn't really shown up in the other eight races, with no second-place finishes and four third place efforts. Crupi ($1.1 million) won the Suburban Stakes (G2) last June, but his last win prior to that came the previous December. He enters the race off a fifth-place finish (moved up to fourth via a disqualification) in the grade 2 Clark Stakes in November. Steal Sunshine won the Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes (G2) last March but has had little success in a two-turn race such as the Pegasus and finished five lengths behind the winner when third in the grade 3 Harlan's Holiday Stakes last month. Power Squeeze, the only female in the field, has won six of 12 in her career including the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes presented by Keeneland Sales last summer. Vitality rounds out the field. He won the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown in the Prince of Wales Stakes last September for his second win in 12 starts, but he's winless in three races since then including a sixth in the Harlan's Holiday on Dec. 21. Analysis, top Contenders When assessing traits that winners of this race have possessed in previous years, it appears running in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) or the Breeders' Cup Classic carries the most weight. That makes sense, given that those two races are the top targets near the end of the year for horses running on dirt from one mile to 1 1/4 miles, which lends itself to success in this 1 1/8-mile race. Three horses in this field ran in one of those two races on Nov. 3: Mixto, Saudi Crown, and Skippylongstocking. Mixto finished 11th of 14 at odds of 69-1 in the Classic and has not won or finished second in three races at the distance of the Pegasus. Furthermore, he was winless in six races before his victory in the Pacific Classic and has been winless twice since, and as such he's just not a horse I consider having a good probability to win this race. The other two I've mentioned, however, both seem perfectly capable of winning this year's Pegasus. Skippylongstocking gets slight preference over Saudi Crown because he's run 10 times at Gulfstream on dirt, winning three times, while Saudi Crown is running over the surface for the first time. Skippylongstocking continues to perform well in most of his races, particularly at this mile-and-an-eighth distance where he has won five of 13 races in his career. The two best of those efforts, which also happen to be the best two races of his career, came last year when winning the Oaklawn Handicap in April and the Charles Town Classic in August, both with career-best 114 Equibase Speed Figures. Following the Charles Town Classic, Skippylongstocking led in the stretch in the Woodward Stakes (G2) at this distance, before ending up second and beaten less than a length. In his only race since then, he finished sixth of 13 in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. Since then, he appears to have been preparing for this race in fine fashion, with six workouts evenly spaced seven days apart. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione has ridden Skippylongstocking four times among his last 10 races, winning twice including the 2023 Charles Town Classic as well as the Challenger Stakes last March, which was the last time Gaffalione was in the saddle for Skippylongstocking. Considering the quality of the field he faced in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile and his superb record at the 1 1/8 mile distance of the Pegasus, I think Skippylongstocking should be a very strong contender in the race from start to finish. Saudi Crown, with jockey Florent Geroux aboard, could be the horse the field will have to catch. This is because he draws the No. 2 post position and has used his excellent early speed to earn four of his six wins leading from the start. One of those came in the 2023 Pennsylvania Derby where Saudi Crown earned a career-best 114 figure while controlling the tempo from start to finish at the distance of the Pegasus. He can also win from just off the pace, as evidenced when winning the Tenacious Stakes on Dec. 21 after racing in second for the first three-quarters of a mile. That effort earned a 113 figure, right up there with the 114 best figures Skippylongstocking has earned. Prior to the Tenacious, Saudi Crown went to post at the same 7-1 odds as Skippylongstocking in the Dirt Mile but finished last of 13 compared with sixth for Skippylongstocking. Still, this horse has shown a lot of quality, winning half of his 12 career starts, and considering he is making his third start since returning from a three-month layoff in November we should expect a top effort that could be good enough to win. Stronghold may have twice as many second-place finishes (six) in his career as compared to wins (three) but three of those runner-up efforts came in his past three races including two at the top level in the Pennsylvania Derby and the Malibu Stakes. His Equibase figures have significantly improved in his past three races as he has matured physically as well, going from 102 in July to 107 in the Pennsylvania Derby, and then to 114 in the Malibu. That last effort puts him right there with the top two contenders if replicated and gives him a chance to win if he improves upon it and the other two do not run as well as expected. The only two times he has run the distance of the Pegasus, Stronghold has done exceptionally well. One of those was when he checked in second in the Pennsylvania Derby and the other was when he won the Santa Anita Derby last April. Making his second start following three months off and first as a 4-year-old, Stronghold must be considered a strong contender in this group. Honorable mention must go to Locked and to White Abarrio. Locked returned from 11 months off in October to win an allowance race, and then won the Cigar Mile Handicap with a 113 Equibase figure which certainly is competitive with the top horses here if repeated. However, there is a question about this distance, which he has never run previously, noting the Cigar win came in a one-turn mile race. White Abarrio earned a 116 figure winning the 2023 Breeders' Cup Classic and has won six of eight races on the Gulfstream Park main track. Like Locked, White Abarrio stretches out from a one-turn race following a second-place finish in the Mr. Prospector Stakes four weeks ago. He won the 2023 Whitney Stakes at this distance with a career-best 122 figure, but he was a 4-year-old then and in his two races at the end of last year as a 5-year-old, including the Mr. Prospector, White Abarrio earned 104 and 100 figures which would not make him competitive if repeated in this field. The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures in similar races, is Crupi (112), Mixto (108), Mystik Dan (110), Newgrange (106), Power Squeeze (97), Steal Sunshine (97) and Vitality (99). Win Contenders in preference/probability order Skippylongstocking Saudi Crown Stronghold (if any of the three horses above should scratch, I would not hesitate to consider Locked as a win contender).