Coal Battle's Underdog Story Resumes in Arkansas Derby

The dominant story on Oaklawn Park's Road to the Kentucky Derby has been Coal Battle and his small-time connections. That team of owner Robbie Norman, trainer Lonnie Briley, and jockey Juan Vargas will aim to write a satisfying finale March 29 as their 3-year-old colt takes on eight rivals in the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby (G1). The $70,000 purchase at the 2023 Texas Thoroughbred Association Yearling Sale has already provided a thrill for his connections thanks to a 5-for-7 record, $1,053,875 in earnings, and an already clinched spot in the May 3 Kentucky Derby (G1) thanks to his Feb. 23 victory in the Rebel Stakes (G2). Now, he can provide even more Saturday as a victory would be a first grade 1 triumph for each member of the team. "I never thought I'd be running one in the Arkansas Derby or even the Rebel," said Briley. "I had a lot of fast horses, but none that could really run the distance. I had a couple of them, but not this caliber." The key to the Coal Front colt's success has been his ability to race wherever Vargas places him. In the Jan. 4 Smarty Jones Stakes, he took command early and set slow fractions, winning by four lengths. When the pace was quicker in the Rebel, he sat back in the pack and launched a rally to win by 1 1/4 lengths. "This little horse, he's smart as a whip. You can rate him or you can send him," Briley said. "He always breaks from the gates good; he breaks clean and gets away running. You can grab him and place him where you want." Briley said he expects quick fractions in the Arkansas Derby thanks to the presence of D. Wayne Lukas-trained Bestfriend Rocket, Ron Moquett-trained Speed King, and Bob Baffert-trained Cornucopian. "They'll have some pretty honest fractions, and I think that will help him. Sit off the pace and make his run," Briley said. "He's training good, right along. He's sound, he's had his works. He's not a big workhorse where he's going to go out there and set crazy fractions. He takes care of himself. He's feeling good, we'll see what happens." Despite his success over the track, Coal Battle is still an underdog story as he was installed as the 7-2 third choice on the morning line. Favoritism, at 7-5, was awarded to Cornucopian, who is owned by the partnership of SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert Masterson, Tom Ryan, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan. While Briley is seeking his first grade 1 victory in three decades of training, Baffert is targeting a sixth win in the Arkansas Derby itself. Cornucopian drew much attention on the Rebel undercard when he debuted a flashy 5 3/4-length winner. He then returned to California after the race and fired a bullet work at the same six-furlong distance March 17. The son of Into Mischief does have a tough task ahead of him as he stretches out from six furlongs to 1 1/8 miles in just his second start. That is not an unprecedented path for a Baffert trainee as Taiba made the same distance jump to win the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in 2022. Also ahead of Coal Battle on the morning line is D. J. Stable, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds, and CJ Stables' Sandman at 3-1. The $1.2 million purchase at the 2024 Ocala Breeders' Sales March Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training has been the buzz horse on the Oaklawn trail as his closing kick has helped him overcome a disastrous break in the Southwest Stakes (G3) and potential track bias in the Rebel. Both races he hit the board less than two lengths from winning. The added distance should be no problem for the son of Tapit as Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse makes the swap from Cristian Torres to Jose Ortiz in the saddle. With 29 points on the Kentucky Derby (G1) trail already, a top four performance in the race that offers 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points to the top five finishers will likely clinch his spot at Churchill Downs May 3. Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen targets his fifth win in the Arkansas Derby with Gus King and the Estate of Brereton Jones' Publisher. The son of 2015 Arkansas Derby and Triple Crown winner American Pharoah should benefit from the projected hot pace after experiencing troubled trips in both the Southwest and Rebel. Triton Thoroughbreds, Naber Racing, Bryan Hennigan, Doug Rapier, and Ron Micetic's Southwest winner Speed King is 15-1 on the morning line following a disappointing run in the Rebel. Settling off the pace for the first time in his career, the son of Volatile was stuck wide on a track Moquett believes was playing favorably to inside, forwardly placed horses. "I think last time wasn't the most advantageous trip for us," Moquett said. "The way the track was playing, you needed to be on the inside and forwardly placed to be successful. We were five wide and not. After missing all the training and stuff, I just think it was too much for him to overcome. We're looking for a smoother trip and a clearer definition of what we are." Oaklawn has been hit by several winter storms that have caused cancellations of training, including for several days leading up to the Rebel. In fact, the Rebel was delayed one day because of the storms. With a more consistent training schedule ahead of the Arkansas Derby, Speed King has fired consecutive bullet works since the Rebel. "He seems to be coming around at the right time," Moquett said. Moquett's instructions to jockey Rafael Bejarano will simply be to work out a good trip. "Any time you say to stay off somebody or whatever, that's when you run into setting a plan for something that didn't happen," Moquett said. "When we inherited the lead in the Southwest, I didn't say go out there and be part of the lead. But I did tell him to take back in the Rebel and I think it cost us because of the way the track was playing." Rounding out the field are Rebel eighth-place finisher Brereton's Baytown, Southwest fifth-place finisher Monet's Magic, and stakes-debuting First Division. The race will be televised nationally on CNBC and streamed on Peacock. Insights From Thoro-Graph First Division is slow relative to these (7 3/4 top) going in, but he's been inching forward and could be ready for a jump. Publisher is trying to get back to the figure (5 1/2) he popped out of nowhere in December and might be ready to do it. Speed King won a weak Southwest with a new top (6 1/2) before bouncing, but he needs to improve a lot to compete in graded races going forward. Sandman has a classic pattern of development reminiscent of Victory Gallop. He hit a new top in January (4 1/2), then paired it up, a sign of strength. This colt probably won't get fast enough soon enough to win the Derby, but the Belmont Stakes (G1) could be another story, and Tapits have done well in that race. Sandman isn't the fastest horse in the Arkansas Derby, but he's the most likely to run his race. Coal Battle has marched forward in his last four and last time produced the second-fastest figure (3) run by anyone in this race. But that was both a big jump and represented a lot of development in a short time frame, and is more likely to take something out of him than be a stepping stone to another forward move. Cornucopian ran crazy fast (zero) in his debut and now tries going much further while coming off a huge effort. This is the kind we usually automatically take a stand against, but this one has two other factors to consider: 1) Baffert, and 2) this colt's siblings handled added distance just fine (see the far right of his Thoro-Graph sheet). Nothing that this one does now would surprise us either way. Thoro-Graph performance figures are calculated based on a race's time with adjustments for beaten lengths, track speed, ground loss, weight carried, and when necessary, wind. The lower the number, the better the race. Complimentary sheets for the Arkansas Derby can be found online at Thoro-Graph. Learn more about how to analyze Thoro-Graph data at www.thorograph.com/basics.