Anticipation High Ahead of Craven Breeze-Up Sale

Buying racehorses is a puzzle. And when it comes to finding future talent, the yearling sales is a bit like attempting a 1,000-piece jigsaw blindfolded. There are so many unknowns that even if you somehow manage to identify all the necessary pieces, getting them in order is a whole other matter. However, at the breeze-ups, so much more is revealed. That is not to say finding a good horse in this market is easy. But this is less 1,000-piece jigsaw blindfolded, and more like tackling a Rubik's Cube wearing oven gloves. Identifying the right moves is a bit more straightforward, even if making them still proves something of a challenge. When vendors bring what buyers perceive to be the right article to market, there is a fat margin for profit. Purchasers understandably feel the additional layers of data are removing the guesswork and increasing their chances of buying a fast horse. The odds are more in their favor. Although buyers and sellers may have differing opinions on the value of using data to buy flesh and blood, they tend to be united in their optimism. The strength of the market at last year's yearling sales was, in no small part, down to Amo Racing's remarkable recruitment drive. Whether that intensity of trade can be maintained into the breeze-ups remains to be seen, but vendors likely breathed a sigh of relief when they clocked Amo principal Kia Joorabchian and his team among those doing their due diligence at Park Paddocks April 14, ahead of Tattersall's Craven Breeze-Up Sale. Joorabchian was far from alone, as plenty of other prospective purchasers were on the ground, including talent spotters from the likes of Coolmore, Godolphin, and the emerging Wathnan Racing operation. One observer said footfall on the Rowley Mile during the breeze was "as busy as I've ever seen it." And buyers have at least five good reasons to be optimistic about the Craven. The last four renewals have produced five group 1-winning graduates, including top-class 2-year-olds Native Trail (GB) and Vandeek (GB), as well as last year's Futurity Trophy (G1) scorer Hotazhell. The other two group 1 winners, namely Believing (IRE) and Cachet (IRE), were both bought by Highclere Agency, and both cost less than the average price at their respective renewals. Believing was secured for 115,000 guineas in 2022, while Cachet fetched 60,000gns 12 months earlier. Although Believing did not carry the Highclere silks to victory in this year's Al Quoz Sprint (G1), her sale to Coolmore for 3 million guineas probably went some way to softening the blow. Highclere's Jake Warren was also among those combing the grounds on Monday afternoon, and took a brief pause from his inspections to explain how he dovetails data with a more traditional approach. "We look at the times, but we by no means have it as our central mechanism for buying," he said. "I was brought up on physicals, so we consider the overall make and shape compared to the pedigree, then factor in the times to a degree. Sometimes the times and the data can lead you down the wrong path, so we try to keep all the variables open and not be too dependent on any one thing." He added: "I really like to see what I call a progressive time; a horse that is getting faster as it's going, relative to the distance. I like to see them finishing strongly and watch the gallop out beyond the timing gates, that's something we keep an eye on visually."