Baeza Needs a Rich Strike-Like KY Derby Opportunity

The connections of Baeza need some Rich Strike-like Kentucky Derby (G1) fortune. When post positions will be drawn for the Derby at Churchill Downs just after 7 p.m. ET April 26, Baeza will be an alternate in the oversubscribed race, which is limited to 20 starters, just as Rich Strike was three years earlier. A scratch by the morning of the May 2 Kentucky Oaks would allow Baeza, an also-eligible, to draw into the race and start from the far outside post, as Rich Strike did as the No. 21 horse in 2022—using that opportunity to upset the first leg of the Triple Crown at 80-1 odds. Baeza, the runner-up to Kentucky Derby favorite Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), would be no such surprise. Derby handicappers and analysts highly regard him, but the late developer was disadvantaged under Churchill Downs' preference system, in which prospects earn qualifying points in designated stakes races. Under a new rule implemented this year, points were reduced for later preps in the series with short fields. So late-developing Baeza earned just 37.5 points toward the Derby for his runner-up finish in a grade 1, less than the 50 points that Flying Mohawk and Grande garnered for one-race point-earning placings in the lower-graded races in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) and Wood Memorial Stakes (G2), respectively. The Jeff Ruby Steaks is run on a synthetic surface at the Churchill Downs. Inc.-owned Turfway Park. Baeza is 1-2-0 in four starts with rapid progression since February. "Our horse is a good horse," Baeza's trainer John Shirreffs said. "I know he fits in the race, so we gotta wait and see if we can draw in." The son of McKinzie is out of the 2024 Broodmare of the Year Puca, making him a half brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Dornoch. A $1.2 million purchase by Mayberry Farm from the Runnymede Farm consignment to the 2023 September Yearling Sale at Keeneland, he races for Lee and Susan Searing's C R K Stable and breeder Grandview Equine. Asked if the second leg of the Triple Crown, the May 17 Preakness Stakes (G1) at Pimlico Race Course, would become the target if Baeza does not gain entrance to the Derby, "I would think that would be the decision; it's day to day, obviously." The California-based Shirreffs is a past Derby winner, taking the race in 2005 with Giacomo. A gray and/or roan, he is now mostly white at age 23. He stands at stud at Oakhurst Thoroughbreds in Oregon. Reflecting on Giacomo's Derby win for owners Jerry and Anne Moss 20 years ago, Shirreffs said, "It was just a great thrill and accomplishment, and then to come here, it just brings it back a little bit." He has run four other horses in the Derby since, with Honor A. P. performing best of those by grabbing fourth in 2020. Baeza is stabled in the same barn as Giacomo, one of the barns reserved for ship-ins that extend near the early part of the backstretch chute, with a grassy area separating the barn from nearby Longfield Avenue. "I think Giacomo was in a similar stall to where Baeza is right now," Shirreffs said. The Mosses' eventual Hall of Famer Zenyatta was stabled on the other side of the same barn when Shirreffs started her for the final time in the 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs. Slow into stride in her first start over the local dirt surface, she fell a head short of catching Blame, her only loss in 20 starts. She now resides at Lane's End Farm in Versailles, Ky. "She really showed her class and desire" in defeat, Shirreffs said.