Shadow of Light Faces Juddmonte Duo in Commonwealth Cup

I joke sometimes that the six-furlong Commonwealth Cup (G1), rather than the St. Leger (G1), ought to be treated as the fifth classic. I would not pretend to have a fully costed argument to back it up. Still, look at this year's race and the comparison can be made. The market is dominated by horses representing major breeding operations Godolphin, Juddmonte, Coolmore, and Aga Khan Studs, while relatively new superpower owners Qatar, Amo, and Wathnan also have runners. What the Commonwealth Cup also shares with the St. Leger is the sense that a lot of its contenders are here because they failed in the "proper" classics. Derby winners rarely run in the Leger; Derby also-rans tend to win it. Similarly, a chunk of the Commonwealth Cup field tends to come via one of the Two Thousand Guineas, or at least dabbled in a Guineas trial. There are a couple of quite forceful examples this year. Favorite Shadow of Light (GB) was third in the Two Thousand Guineas (G1), and Jonquil (GB) won the Greenham Stakes (G3) before finishing second in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French Two Thousand Guineas, G1). Four of the 10 winners of this race had run in either the Two Thousand Guineas or the Greenham. Horses dropping back in trip on Ascot's straight course is an angle that crops up regularly. This is as apt a race as any to test it. The theory has a lot to recommend it. Of the 566 horses since 2010 who have run over six furlongs here having run over further last time, 50 have won. You would have expected 42 winners by a simple analysis that gives all horses an equal chance, and around 44 if you factored in their prices. By either measure, trip-droppers over six furlongs at Ascot are winning more than 10% more often than expected. That is an unalloyed positive. Restricting the search to just listed and group races shows a muddier picture. Here the angle still exists, 14 winners from 76 runners is about 9% higher than what you would expect. However, in these races it is overbet. Backing such runners at SP would have resulted in a level-stakes loss of more than £40. Shadow of Light and Jonquil deserve to be the prices they are for the June 20 Commonwealth based on their class edge, but their demonstrable form over further is not adding much further to the positives column. Babouche (GB) is the clear pick of the out-and-out sprinters. She is a group 1 winner who convincingly beat Whistlejacket (IRE) last time, and besides two forgivable runs in the meantime could be said to be seriously progressive. She is also drawn right beside Shadow of Light, and many of the likely pacesetters, in stall 18. But with the lack of depth and up to five places on offer, there is an opening to play the Commonwealth Cup each-way. Big Mojo (IRE) and Diablo Rojo (IRE), the first two from the Commonwealth Cup Trial Stakes (G3) over course and distance, are being underestimated. As the ground quickens, the appeal of the United States-trained Shisospicy grows. She has moved through the ranks in her homeland, most recently winning by a yawning margin at Churchill Downs last month in the Mamzelle Stakes (G3T). That was over 5 1/2 furlongs and around a bend. The clear doubt is whether Shisospicy will last home, it being intuitive that a race which can suit erstwhile Guineas horses would also struggle to play to the strengths of an American flyer. Not all Commonwealth Cup winners arrived here with sprinting as their day job, but it is worth remembering that they all finished their careers in the speed ranks. Long-term plan comes to the boil for Juddmonte The biggest threat to Shadow of Light appears to come from Juddmonte's one-two punch of Babouche and Jonquil, but it is not as simple as arrowing in on who Colin Keane rides as the organization's newly retained rider as his partnering of Babouche here owes plenty to continuity. Keane has never sat on Jonquil, while he has been on board for all six of Babouche's runs. Juddmonte's racing manager Barry Mahon said: "Both are in good form. This has been the plan for Babouche since the start of the season. She won her trial at Naas very impressively and the ground should be fine for her. "Colin has stuck with her. The fact he's ridden her in all her starts and hasn't had a sit yet on Jonquil meant that made sense, as he knows her so well. We'd be hopeful of a good performance." With Jonquil's Greenham and French Guineas partner Oisin Murphy required to ride Shisospicy for Qatar Racing, Christophe Soumillon deputizes on the horse beaten just a head by Henri Matisse (IRE) at Longchamp. "This wasn't plan A for Jonquil, but he's been rock solid all year," added Mahon. "He looked great in the Greenham and was just touched off in the French Guineas. The form of that looks good after Henri Matisse ran so well in the St James's Palace. He'll love the ground, and whether he handles the drop back in trip or not we'll find out on the day."