Dollars & Sense: Efforts Paying Dividends

The median price for a yearling in the sixth session of the Keeneland September Yearling Sale, $150,000, is up nearly 40% compared with the same session last year. As that sixth session Sept. 14 marked the halfway point of the 12-session sale, that number seems to be a strong indicator that the record-breaking success we've seen at this year's yearling sales goes beyond interest at the highest levels. We'll see as Keeneland September concludes with a six-session run that began Sept. 15. Incredibly, on Sunday, the sale surpassed last year's record gross—in just six sessions. Through the opening six sessions, the 2025 Keeneland September sale saw gross sales of $434,982,000 compared with the $428,097,000 in gross sales through the 12 sessions that produced the previous year's record mark. "Book 3 closed today on another high note, with packed grounds and strong competition in the ring," said Keeneland vice president of sales Tony Lacy. "To surpass last year's record-breaking gross—with six sessions still to come and so much depth of quality remaining in the catalog—speaks volumes about the health of the market that we have seen play out here." Depth in yearling interest already is showing. Through Sunday's session, about 37% of the yearlings expected to sell at auction this year have been sold. That percentage already suggests the industry has reached numbers beyond "top of the market," and session numbers continue to register well ahead of 2024. Bloodstock agent Justin Casse is seeing strong demand to successfully participate in horse racing at Keeneland September. That interest is carrying over from session to session. "I feel like basically Book 2 was like Book 1 five years ago," Casse said Saturday. "Now, I don't know if Book 3 is going to be like Book 2 five years ago, but it's almost like Book 1 was in a whole other stratosphere from what we've seen in the past. "The other books have shifted up as far as the value and all of the statistics as far as what horses are bringing. I mean, there's a real hunger, just wanting to see what lies ahead for Book 3, 4, and 5, because you have a different buyer base coming into town and leaving town, and the pedigrees are a lot different." Looking at BloodHorse numbers for past years, I'd expect about another 2,200 yearlings to sell at Keeneland Sept. 15-20, which will bring us to about three-quarters of the yearlings that will be sold in North America this year. The record gross of more than $636.7 million paid for yearlings at North American auctions in 2024 will be shattered and could be surpassed as early as Tuesday or Wednesday this week. The North American record will fall, and we'll keep an eye on just how well these later sessions and additional sales perform. Beyond that, regional markets also will need to be examined. State of the Market As for Kentucky, momentum continues. Early on in the Keeneland September sale, Mark Taylor of Taylor Made Sales Agency noted that a successful Keeneland September often puts the industry into a strong cycle. With its third record sale in four years, that cycle appears to be gaining momentum. "Keeneland is the epicenter of the business," Taylor said. "This sale is so important to the breeders. If they do well here, they reinvest at Keeneland November, and then the whole ecosystem is doing well. This sale has been fantastic." A number of factors will need to be examined to determine what is driving this interest but three that stand out to us are the success of Kentucky's commitment to purses through funds from historical horse racing, the industry successfully lobbying to have 100% bonus depreciation made permanent, and overall improved acceptance of horse racing through efforts such as the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority. There's a foundation in place, which is critical for a market that plays out over years.