Handicapping a Wide-Open Pennsylvania Derby

Determining the most likely winner of Saturday’s $1 million Pennsylvania Derby (G1) at Parx Racing isn’t easy. The field is packed with talent, and I can picture at least five different horses visiting the winner’s circle. Even though leading sophomores Sovereignty and Journalism are skipping the Pennsylvania Derby, their shadows loom large over the 10-horse field. The expected favorites have all lost high-profile races to Sovereignty and/or Journalism. But some have performed admirably against the division leaders. One such runner is #8 Baeza. He’s had the misfortune to knock heads with Sovereignty and Journalism repeatedly this season. He posted triple-digit Beyer speed figures when finishing second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) to Journalism, third in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont (G1) to Sovereignty and Journalism, and second in the Jim Dandy (G2) to Sovereignty. Baeza’s Jim Dandy performance could make him the Pennsylvania Derby favorite. He was beaten only one length by Sovereignty after battling gamely down the homestretch and pulling 9 1/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher. But even though Baeza’s form lines and speed figures are excellent, his tendency to settle for minor awards is at least a little concerning. He had every chance to beat Sovereignty in the Jim Dandy (and Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby), but couldn’t quite seal the deal. I wonder if Baeza is still a work in progress who hasn’t quite figured out what winning is all about. That’s why I prefer the chances of #9 Gosger. Even though he’s similarly fallen short in his toughest contests, he’s shown a more consistent tendency than Baeza to get out in front and fight for first prize. Gosger broke his maiden racing one mile at Gulfstream Park and soon stepped up in class to win the Lexington (G3) by two lengths over future Travers runner-up Bracket Buster. He was a 15-1 longshot when joining the Triple Crown trail in the Preakness (G1), but he ran a giant race. After pressing the pace in second place, he seized a five-length lead in midstretch, only to get run down in the final strides by an otherworldly late surge from Journalism. Gosger was beaten only half a length in second place. Gosger produced a similar effort in the Haskell (G1), his latest race. He dropped farther off the pace than usual (back to fifth place) before rallying to lead in midstretch. Victory was in his grasp, but once again Journalism produced a last-minute surge to win by half a length, leaving Gosger in second place. Getting away from Journalism should help Gosger break through and secure his first Grade 1 win. He’s improving with every start and enters the Pennsylvania Derby off a bullet half-mile workout in :59 3/5, so another peak performance appears likely. From the outside draw, I’m optimistic Gosger will work out a clean trip in this speed-packed field and outkick Baeza when called upon in the homestretch. Some bettors may opt to support #3 Magnitude, who has run faster than Baeza and Gosger on the Beyer scale. He was eye-catching when wiring the Risen Star (G2) and Iowa Derby by blowout margins, but he regressed in the Travers last time out, tiring to finish a distant third behind Sovereignty. Perhaps Magnitude will bounce back in his third start off a lengthy layoff; certainly the raw talent is there. But there are enough other pace players in the Pennsylvania Derby field that I’m concerned he’ll get caught up in a destructive pace. One up-and-coming price horse I’m interested to support is #4 David of Athens. He caught my eye last fall, when he rallied from three lengths behind to win his debut sprinting six furlongs at Keeneland over a field including future two-time Grade 1 winner Patch Adams. Unfortunately, David of Athens didn’t race again for over eight months. He failed to impress in his return, but his second start back yielded a huge gate-to-wire win in a one-mile allowance at Ellis Park. David of Athens romped by 7 1/4 lengths, and his form was flattered when third-place finisher Dive Bomber and fifth-place finisher U Devil You both recorded next-out wins. I don’t think we’ve seen David of Athens’ best yet, and his versatility in terms of running style sets the stage for a favorable trip regardless of how the Pennsylvania Derby unfolds. I believe he has a big chance to finish in the Pennsylvania Derby top three, and there may even be a path to victory. #6 Goal Oriented is another contender to finish in the top three. He hails from the barn of Bob Baffert, who has won the Pennsylvania Derby four times with Bayern (2014), West Coast (2017), McKinzie (2018), and Taiba (2022). Goal Oriented opened his career with back-to-back maiden and allowance wins before finishing a significantly troubled fourth in the Preakness. With a clean trip in the Haskell, he bounced back nicely, fighting down the lane to run third by three-quarters of a length while beaten only a neck for second place by Gosger. Fast workouts since the Haskell, including a stiff seven furlongs in 1:24 1/5 earlier this month, should have Goal Oriented poised for another strong showing in the Pennsylvania Derby. Selections 1st: Gosger 2nd: Baeza 3rd: David of Athens 4th: Goal Oriented Now it’s your turn! Who do you like in the Pennsylvania Derby? ***** Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contest page. There's a new challenge every week!