Will an Up-and-Comer Win the Holy Bull?

Winter weather has wreaked havoc on the U.S. racing calendar this week, but although it could be a little rainy and chilly at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, the $275,000 Holy Bull (G3) should be able to run as scheduled. That's significant since the 1 1/16-mile contest for three-year-olds is a major stop on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, awarding 20-10-6-4-2 qualification points to the top five finishers. Nine horses have entered the Holy Bull, though Hopeful (G1) runner-up #6 Buetane is expected to scratch, and #9 Game for It will likely withdraw too, leaving us with seven expected starters. The most accomplished entrant is #1 Incredibolt (9-2). There's quite a bit to like about his chances. The son of Bolt d'Oro has gone 2-for-2 since stretching out over route distances, employing pace-tracking tactics to win a one-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs before charging from last place to take the 1 1/16-mile Street Sense (G3) over the same track. The final time of the Street Sense (1:44.67) was modest and yielded an unremarkable 82 Beyer speed figure, making Incredibolt one of the slower Holy Bull entrants on paper. But the slow time was due at least in part to a pedestrian pace; the early leader carved out splits of :24.29, :48.83, and 1:13.40. The slow pace should have compromised Incredibolt, but instead, he blazed his final three furlongs in a swift :36.86 to beat the pace-pressing favorite Universe by 1 3/4 lengths. Generally speaking, I think Incredibolt is a promising prospect with a potentially bright future on the Kentucky Derby trail. But historically, many graded stakes-winning juveniles have struggled in the Holy Bull, falling to defeat against up-and-coming maiden and allowance winners. Often, the big names are short of their best while returning from layoffs in the Holy Bull, and that could potentially be the case for Incredibolt as well. He's posted only half a dozen timed workouts since the Street Sense, and four of them have been on the slow side. He may need to get a race under his belt before returning to peak form. As a result, I'm siding with a last-out maiden winner to take home top honors: #5 Cannoneer (2-1). Cannoneer debuted way back on June 1 in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. On that occasion, he set the pace before weakening in the final furlong to finish third behind Comport, who later sandwiched a win in the Ellis Park Juvenile S. between runner-up finishes in the Iroquois (G3) and Bashford Manor S. Cannoneer subsequently went to the sidelines and didn't race again until Nov. 29. His second start came in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, and this time, he was ready to roll. Despite being pressured early by a riderless horse, Cannoneer turned back a midrace challenge from an actual competitor and drew off down the homestretch to dominate by 7 1/4 lengths in the quick time of 1:21.63. The 1 1/16-mile distance of the Holy Bull is a new obstacle for Cannoneer, but his pedigree suggests the longer trip won't be an issue. He's a son of perennial leading sire Into Mischief (who has sired three Kentucky Derby winners) out of the Malibu Moon mare Catch the Moon, who has previously foaled 1 1/8-mile Haskell (G1) winner Girvin, 1 3/16-mile Preakness (G1) and 1 1/4-mile Travers (G1) runner-up Midnight Bourbon, and 1 1/16-mile Iroquois (G3) winner Cocked and Loaded. Cannoneer took less time off over the winter than Incredibolt and has recently posted a trio of five-furlong workouts over the slow training track at Payson Park, which should have him fit for a strong sophomore debut. I'm optimistic Cannoneer will deliver a big performance in the Holy Bull, cementing his status as a serious Kentucky Derby contender. #7 Nearly (9-5) is another logical contender. The Todd Pletcher trainee never factored in his first start at Aqueduct, but is unbeaten and unchallenged in two subsequent starts at Gulfstream Park. First, he trounced fellow Florida-breds in a six-furlong maiden special weight, winning by 9 1/4 lengths. Then he overcame a bumping start to rally and win a seven-furlong $75,000 allowance optional claimer by five lengths. Nearly's allowance win earned a flashy 97 Beyer speed figure, the highest number in the Holy Bull field. He has every chance to give Pletcher a third win in the Holy Bull, following Algorithms (2012) and Audible (2018). But I wonder if Cannoneer has even more talent and upside. Selections 1st: Cannoneer 2nd: Nearly 3rd: Incredibolt Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Holy Bull Stakes? ***** Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contests page. There's a new challenge every week!