Betting for an Upset in the Virginia Derby

For the second year in a row, Saturday's $500,000 Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs will serve as a Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier worth 50-25-15-10-5 points to the top five finishers. It's the highlight of three days of March racing at the Virginia oval. #1 Buetane (5-2) is the morning-line favorite for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. At first glance, his credentials are enticing. He's recorded top-three finishes in the Hopeful (G1), San Vicente (G2), and Southwest (G3) and could find the competition a bit easier in the Virginia Derby. But there may be chinks in Buetane's armor. The form of his runner-up finish in the San Vicente (in which he benefited from a blazing pace) took a hit when the victorious So Happy returned to finish third in the San Felipe (G2) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Also, when Buetane made his route debut in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest, he was right in contention until the final eighth of a mile, when he tired to finish third by 3 1/4 lengths. So far, Buetane has performed best sprinting. He's also lost ground from the eighth pole to the finish line in all three of his graded stakes starts. I'm not certain Buetane will relish stretching out over 1 1/8 miles, so I'll oppose him in the Virginia Derby. Instead, I'll side with #6 Lockstocknpharoah (5-1) as my top choice. Lockstocknpharoah is unbeaten and basically unchallenged in two starts over the Tapeta track at Turfway Park. He debuted in a six-furlong maiden auction race, and despite lunging at the start, he rallied nicely from fifth place to score a two-length win. Lockstocknpharoah improved dramatically when stretching out over one mile for his second start, a $62,500 allowance optional claimer. This time, he got off to a clean start, dashed to the lead through fractions of :24.04, :48.36, and 1:13.48, and roared away down the homestretch to dominate by 8 1/4 lengths in 1:39.04. The pace Lockstocknpharoah set in his second start is respectable given the slow nature of the Turfway Tapeta. And while he raced a little greenly in the homestretch, he was tons the best and drew off powerfully to win with his ears pricked. As a son of 2025 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah out of a mare by 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, there's a good chance Lockstocknpharoah will handle switching to dirt just fine. His early speed should help him stay out of kickback, and it's worth remembering how the Colonial Downs dirt played extremely fast on Virginia Derby Day in 2025. If the track is similarly fast in 2026, it may favor speed horses and thus lend an advantage to Lockstocknpharoah. Beyond Lockstocknpharoah, #5 High Camp (9-2) and #8 Confessional (4-1) are two logical horses to use in exotic wagers. High Camp has shown promise in maiden special weights sprinting at Gulfstream Park. He finished a good second in his debut dashing six furlongs, then stretched out for a seven-furlong sprint and closed late to win by one length. Jumping up to 1 1/8 miles is a question mark, but Brisnet statistics indicate trainer William Walden wins at a lofty 24% rate with horses running long for the first time, and Beyer speed figures suggest High Camp is fast enough to factor against the Virginia Derby field. As for Confessional, he struggled when well regarded in the 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis S. on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, tiring to finish seventh. But the caliber of competition was solid; he finished less than six lengths behind third-place finisher The Puma, who returned to win the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). If you draw a line through Confessional's Sam F. Davis misfire, his form is promising. Two starts back, he ran second in a seven-furlong $75,000 allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Park, beaten only by next-out Holy Bull (G3) winner Nearly. Confessional pulled 4 3/4 lengths ahead of third-place finisher Timeless Victory, who returned to dominate his next start over the same track and class level. Confessional's allowance effort earned an 88 Beyer. Among horses entered in the Virginia Derby, only Buetane has run faster. A rebound to that level of form should make Confessional formidable for trainer Brad Cox, who went 3-for-4 (75%) during the three-day March 2025 meet at Colonial Downs. One longshot worth considering is #7 Incredibolt (10-1). True, he never factored when kicking off his 2026 campaign in the Holy Bull, finishing a distant last behind Nearly. But he went 2-for-2 in route races as a juvenile, most notably launching a late charge to win the Street Sense (G3) by 1 3/4 lengths. A return to his two-year-old form could place Incredibolt in the hunt for a top-four finish at enticing odds. Don't count #3 Epic Desire (15-1) out of the mix either. He finished only three lengths behind The Puma when fifth in the Sam F. Davis. Epic Desire has yet to run particularly fast on the Beyer scale, but a top-four finish isn't out of reach for this Todd Pletcher trainee, especially if Commandment and/or Incredibolt fail to recapture their best form. Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Virginia Derby? ***** Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contests page. There's a new challenge every week! ***** The Unlocking Winners Road to the Kentucky Derby Handicapping Challenge is back! Check out the special contest page to play along.