Emerging Market Edges Pavlovian in Louisiana Derby

No matter the 3-year-old that Chad Brown sends from South Florida to run at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, the five-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer means business. After taking the Feb. 14 Risen Star Stakes (G2) with Paladin—who runs next April 4 in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland—Brown struck again March 21 at Fair Grounds by taking the track's richest race, the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2), with Klaravich Stables' Emerging Market. Similar to Paladin's Risen Star half-length victory, this one didn't come easily. Emerging Market, who bid from fifth, needed the length of the stretch to wear down pacesetting Pavlovian. He finished a head in front, timed in 1:55.18 for 1 3/16 miles on a fast track under Flavien Prat. Emerging Market improved to 2-for-2, paying $6 to win. "In his first race, he showed a lot of professionalism," Prat said of a debut victory last month at Tampa Bay Downs. "I was a little worried about the 9 (post), but we worked out a good trip. He fought hard. It was a good run, very professional. Honestly, when I turned for home, I thought I would win easily, but Pavlovian gave us a good challenge." His time was the third fastest of seven runnings of the Louisiana Derby since Fair Grounds extended the race in distance to 1 3/16 miles beginning in 2020. Epicenter ran 1:54.38 in the Louisiana Derby in 2022, and Hot Rod Charlie was clocked in 1:55.06 a year earlier. Both placed in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Five participants from the Louisiana Derby have gone on to glory in the Run for the Roses, the most recent of which was Mandaloun, who, after a sixth-place finish in the 2021 Louisiana Derby, took the Kentucky Derby later that spring via the disqualification of Medina Spirit for a medication violation. Black Gold (1924) and Grindstone (1996) are the only horses to win both races. Lecomte Stakes (G3) winner Golden Tempo, racing with blinkers for the first time, rallied to show in Saturday's race after a troubled start, though his rally stalled over the final eighth of a mile. He checked in a length behind the top two finishers. Universe was another 5 1/2 lengths back in fourth, and Chip Honcho ran a tired fifth. The Louisiana Derby and Saturday's Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) were the first races on the 2025-26 Road to the Kentucky Derby to offer 200 qualifying points toward the Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs, distributed on a 100-50-25-15-10 basis to their top five finishers. Churchill Downs uses qualifying points as a preference system when the race overfills beyond its capacity field size of 20 horses. Pavlovian, who proved a stubborn foe to pass in the Louisiana Derby after setting splits of :22.65, :46.23, and 1:10.85, now has 70 points, having picked up 20 points earlier with a nose victory in the Feb. 15 Sunland Park Derby. The third- through fifth-place finishers could also potentially qualify for the first leg of the Triple Crown due to having also accrued points in earlier races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Golden Tempo has a total of 60 points, Universe has 38, and Chip Honcho has 49. Thirty-nine points were required to make the body of the Derby field in 2025, though after a scratch, Baeza drew into the race as an also-eligible, with 37.5 points. The winner, a chestnut son of Candy Ride (ARG) bred in Kentucky out of the Empire Maker mare Wild Empress, was a $185,000 purchase from the consignment of breeder Stoneriggs Farm at the 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. He has 100 qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby. Emerging Market earned $600,000 for Saturday's win, increasing his earnings to $618,880. His first victory came over a route against maidens at Tampa Bay Downs Feb. 7 in fast time. Brown has run horses in the Derby for Seth Klarman of Klaravich Stables through the years, but they have also exercised caution at times with lightly raced runners—moves that have paid dividends in the second leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes (G1), contested just two weeks after the Derby in Maryland. Back in 2017, Brown scored his first win in a Triple Crown race when he won the 1 3/16-mile Preakness with Klaravich Stables and William Lawrence's Cloud Computing, and five years later, he struck again with Early Voting for Klaravich Stables. Those horses lost their preps leading into the Derby. Brown, in a postrace interview with BloodHorse, expressed interest in running Emerging Market in the opening leg of the Triple Crown. He plans to meet with Klarman March 22 to discuss options. "I think taking the Derby off the table is being too conservative at this point," Brown said. Brown is 0-2-1 with nine runners in the Derby. His in-the-money finishes came for other owners: a second from Good Magic in 2018, a third from Zandon in 2022, and a nose runner-up finish from Sierra Leone in 2024. This year, he has three horses already qualified for the race on points: Paladin, Gotham Stakes (G3) winner Iron Honor, and Emerging Market. Paladin is the early favorite for the Derby. Only one horse has won the Derby without having at least three starts, Leonatus in 1883. According to Churchill Downs publicity, only seven others have competed after making only one or two prior starts, the most recent of which was the Japanese horse T O Password (JPN), who finished fifth in 2024. Brown said Emerging Market wouldn't run again ahead of the Derby if he and Klarman move forward to run the colt in the May 2 race. Regret (1915), Big Brown (2008), Justify (2018), and Mage (2023) captured the Derby after starting three times previously. Following the success of Hit Show in the Mineshaft Stakes (G3) this winter, Emerging Market is the second graded stakes winner of 2026 for Candy Ride, who stands this year for $60,000 at Lane's End in Kentucky.