Three Heating Up After Big Weekend of Racing

1. Emerging Market This week was an easy call for the top slot as Emerging Market showed plenty of grit in deep stretch of the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) to outduel game runner-up Pavlovian by a head March 21 at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots. I wrote in more detail in this week's Derby Prospect Profile on Emerging Market, a Candy Ride (ARG) colt who was making his stakes debut in only his second start while stretching out from 1 mile and 40 yards to 1 3/16 miles. He aced both the class and distance tests for trainer Chad Brown. Should he go on to Louisville, Ky., for the May 2 Kentucky Derby (G1), Emerging Market would be bidding to do something that has not been accomplished since Leonatus in 1883, winning the classic with two or fewer starts. While I'm skeptical he can rewrite history with an unprecedented win at Churchill Downs in his third race, Emerging Market might just be scratching the surface of his ability, and his final quarter-mile in :24.82 in the Louisiana Derby indicates he should handle an additional sixteenth of a mile. I think a top-three Derby finish is possible with an incremental step forward. 2. Fulleffort The gray or roan colt by Liam's Map lived up to his favoritism in the $777,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) Saturday at Turfway Park, closing from ninth to earn his first stakes win after back-to-back runner-up finishes in Turfway stakes. Fulleffort won two of four races as a 2-year-old, all on the grass, but has raced exclusively on the all-weather Tapeta Footings surface at Turfway for trainer Brad Cox at age 3. A year ago, Cox ran Final Gambit three times at Turfway, also culminating with a Jeff Ruby win, before he went on to run fourth in the Kentucky Derby at 17.55-1 odds. The game plan this year was similar with Fulleffort, and he finished the Jeff Ruby Steaks with a final eighth of a mile in :12.99 to win by 2 1/2 lengths. Fulleffort earned a new career-best 99 Equibase Speed Figure, a 6-point improvement, and boosted his best Beyer Speed Figure 11 points to a 94. Produced by the multiple stakes-winning Awesome Again mare Callmethesqueeze, Fulleffort is a half brother to Power Squeeze, winner of the 1 1/4-mile Alabama Stakes (G1) on the dirt in 2024. Having never competed in a race on the dirt, Fulleffort is a wild card for the 2026 Kentucky Derby... but he'll be in the starting gate and should be doing his best running late. 3. Pavlovian The Louisiana Derby runner-up ran a truly gutsy race Saturday, fighting back after being passed in the stretch before ultimately coming up a head short of winner Emerging Market. He earned a new career-best 90 Beyer Speed Figure and 89 Equibase Speed Figure and finished with a final quarter-mile in :24.96 after setting a solid pace through an opening half-mile in :46.23. I think it was probably a better race than the speed figures indicate, but with 10 starts, I also don't see quite as much room for improvement with Pavlovian as I do for the two 3-year-olds above him. The gray or roan colt by Pavel, who won the Sunland Park Derby in his previous race, essentially paired his speed figures, so he could take a small step forward on six weeks of rest. He also has a ton of foundation under him for two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Doug O'Neill and his spot in the Kentucky Derby field is secured. Also Eligible Stark Contrast made the switch from turf to all-weather for the Jeff Ruby Steaks, took the lead in early stretch Saturday at Turfway Park, and finished second to Fulleffort. Stark Contrast was unplaced in his lone previous start on dirt in his career debut last August at Del Mar and trainer Michael McCarthy has a decision to make with 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. That total most likely would be sufficient to secure a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, but the Caravaggio colt's Equibase Speed Figure dipped from a 107 to a 95, indicating that turf probably is his preferred surface.