Three Heating Up: Further Ado Tops Final Charge

1. Further Ado After what I would characterize as a slightly disappointing start to his 3-year-old campaign—a runner-up finish in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) March 7—Further Ado turned on the afterburners in the Keeneland stretch April 4 in the $1,237,813 Blue Grass Stakes (G1) on his way to an 11-length romp. He completed the final quarter-mile in :25.20 to earn a career-best 106 Beyer Speed Figure (the best for any 3-year-old this year) and a 107 Equibase Speed Figure, also a personal best. The Gun Runner colt clearly relishes the main track at Keeneland, where he won a maiden race as a 2-year-old by 20 lengths, but he also owns a win on the main track at Churchill Downs in last fall's Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). He's put together a consistent four-race string of three wins and the second at Tampa Bay Downs, which came following a three-month layoff and looks better after Tampa Bay Derby winner The Puma finished a stout second to Commandment in the Florida Derby (G1) March 28. Kentucky Derby (G1)-winning trainer Brad Cox should have Further Ado well positioned to fire a big one in his third start of the year. There is a chance he could react negatively to a career-best race, but he's the fastest horse in the field, has tactical speed, and is bred to relish the 1 1/4-mile distance of the Kentucky Derby. 2. So Happy The Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner was the subject of this week's Kentucky Derby Prospect Profile and he could be overlooked May 2 because he doesn't have a classic pedigree—he's sired by 2015 champion male sprinter Runhappy. While distance limitations are a possibility—they are for nearly all of the Kentucky Derby entrants while trying 1 1/4 miles for the first time—So Happy looked very strong when putting away San Felipe Stakes (G2) winner Potente in the stretch of the April 4 $501,000 Santa Anita Derby. He finished with a final eighth of a mile in :12.85 and a final quarter-mile in :25.38 to prevail by 2 3/4 lengths and earn a career-top 100 Beyer Speed Figure. He improved significantly in his second try navigating two turns after fading to third in the San Felipe, and he settled nicely in the early going under Mike Smith in the Santa Anita Derby before launching his winning rally. So Happy showed the ability to track a fast pace and still finish well, and he beat a quality 3-year-old in Potente. I think he'll be right in the mix entering the long Churchill stretch with a shot to win on Derby Day. 3. Albus Albus made his stakes debut a memorable one in the $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) April 4 at Aqueduct Racetrack, closing from eighth in the field of 12 to win by 1 1/4 lengths and punch his ticket to the Kentucky Derby. He entered the Wood Memorial off a 6 3/4-length maiden win Feb. 27 at Tampa Bay Downs and passed the class test while also stretching out to 1 1/8 miles for trainer Riley Mott. I thought there was a sizable gap between my top two (Further Ado and So Happy) this week and Albus, however, when projecting to the Kentucky Derby May 2 at Churchill Downs. None of the three betting favorites in the Wood Memorial ran up to expectations, and Albus did not finish fast while rallying from far back despite an easy pace, completing his final three-eighths of a mile in :38.78 and final quarter-mile in :26.03. He'll need to finish much faster to be a factor in the Derby and the speed figures (89 ESF, 83 Beyer) indicate it would take a massive leap forward to be a real win threat May 2 at Churchill. Albus has secured his spot in the starting gate, however, and four Derby winners at 50-1 odds or more since 2005 prove that anything can happen. Also Eligible Distant Blue Grass Stakes runner-up Ottinho and Wood Memorial Stakes second-place finisher Right to Party both earned their way into the Kentucky Derby field thanks to those efforts. Neither looks fast enough to be a real threat to win the first jewel of the Triple Crown, but both are off-the-pace runners who could pass tiring horses late. Of the runners-up, I prefer Santa Anita Derby second Potente, who looks like he'll be the lone Kentucky Derby starter for six-time Derby winner Bob Baffert. A well-bred colt by perennial leading sire Into Mischief, Potente was much better when rallying from off the pace in the San Felipe Stakes. He dueled for the lead in the Santa Anita Derby and looked a little gassed in the stretch. Potente could be a nice longshot in the Kentucky Derby with a change back to the San Felipe tactics.