Favored Renegade Must Overcome Inside Post in KY Derby

Renegade will attempt to outrun a 40-year-old post position curse when the 4-1 morning-line favorite breaks from the rail in the $5 million Kentucky Derby (G1) May 2 at Churchill Downs. Post 1, from which no horse has won the Kentucky Derby since Ferdinand in 1986, is considered a disadvantage in the Derby, the most prestigious race in North America, and also its deepest, with a field that can have as many as 20 3-year-olds. With such a sizable group of horses scrambling for position—most stakes races are capped at 14 starters—the field compresses to the inside of the racetrack, which can result in inside horses getting bumped or shuffled back. Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Renegade, however, is an established closer, which potentially could negate the need for a hustling ride under Irad Ortiz Jr. The five-time Eclipse Award-winning rider has never hit the board in nine mounts in the Derby, which includes a fifth-place finish from the rail-drawn Mo Donegal in 2022. Horses breaking from the inside post have won eight editions of the Derby (8.3%) since the use of a starting gate in 1930, though many of those winners raced when fewer horses competed in the opening leg of the Triple Crown. Neither Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, nor the colt's ownership of breeders Robert and Lawana Low and Mike Repole of Repole Stable, were on-site at Churchill Downs for the draw. Danielle Bricker, assistant racing manager for Repole Stable, relayed a text she exchanged with Repole in which he replied to her that "he would rather have that than the 18, 19, or 20." Those outside posts, in which horses are in the clear but can potentially lose ground because of wide trips, are respectively occupied by Further Ado, Golden Tempo, and Fulleffort. With more than a quarter-mile run into the first turn, jockeys have opportunities to tuck in their mounts from wide draws. Rich Strike upset the 2022 Derby at 80-1 odds from the outside post 20. The outside posts are not as extreme now as they were in the Derby for many earlier runnings, when the track used a standard gate and a smaller auxiliary one to accommodate the large Derby field. In 2020, Churchill Downs began using a continuous 20-horse starting gate, which is narrower than the two prior gates combined and allows the horses starting from the outside posts to not be as wide toward the stands. Post positions can change with scratches, causing outside horses to move closer to the inside. Last year's winner, Sovereignty, for example, drew post 18 but ultimately started from post 16 following two scratches. Horses retain their initially drawn post numbers for betting. In terms of Saturday's draw, trainer Brad Cox trains two of the three outside runners, Blue Grass Stakes (G1) winner Further Ado and Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) winner Fulleffort, plus Commandment, who is scheduled to start from post 6. Cox likes the posts for Further Ado, a stalker, and Commandment, a late runner, but was less enthused about post 20 for Fulleffort, a strong-finishing colt making his dirt debut after previously racing on turf and all-weather tracks. Asked for his thoughts on favored Renegade drawing the rail, he answered, "Better him than us. But I will say I drew the one hole a few years back with Hit Show, and my horse got an excellent trip from down inside there (to run fifth). You can win from there if you have the horse." Three-time Derby winner John Velazquez—one of two jockeys in the race with multiple victories, the other being two-time winner Mike Smith on Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner So Happy (post 8)—rides Spendthrift Farm's Further Ado, a modestly sized but agile son of Gun Runner. Luis Saez is on Wathnan Racing's Commandment, a son of Into Mischief, and Tyler Gaffalione is aboard Fulleffort, a Liam's Map 3-year-old for Starlight Racing and St. Elias Stable. The field includes three foreign-trained horses in Danon Bourbon (post 7), Wonder Dean (JPN) (post 10), and Six Speed (post 17). Jockey Junior Alvarado and Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, who teamed to win the 2025 Run for the Roses with Sovereignty, will attempt to go back to back by running Michael and Katherine Ball's Chief Wallabee (post 12). Mott also won the 2019 Kentucky Derby with the Flavien Prat-ridden Country House via the demotion of Maximum Security for interference. Chief Wallabee, the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) runner-up and third-place finisher from the Florida Derby (G1), races with blinkers added, an equipment change designed to improve his focus and finish. Mott is unconcerned that they could make his colt too keen in the early stages of the race. "With his disposition, I would doubt that's going to happen," Mott said. Among Chief Wallabee's 19 rivals in the body of the Derby field are two longshots trained by Mott's son, Riley—Albus (post 2) and Incredibolt (post 11), both campaigned by Pin Oak Stud and the last horses assigned post positions during the random draw April 25. "The owners were actually asking if I had remembered to enter," Riley Mott said with a smile. The early speed in the Derby could come toward the outside from Pavlovian (post 16) and Six Speed. Regarding Six Speed's draw of post 17, no horse has won from there in 46 attempts, which seems a statistical aberration. Posts 16 and 18 have five wins and two wins, respectively. Litmus Test (post 4), adding blinkers, and Potente (post 14), both trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, also figure to be prominently placed early. Litmus Test is 30-1, and Potente is 20-1. Besides Renegade, the only horses lower than 10-1 odds on Nick Tammaro's morning line are co-second choices Further Ado and Commandment at 6-1, just ahead of fourth choice Chief Wallabee at 8-1. Tammaro, who replaced longtime oddsmaker Mike Battaglia this year, said he did not alter the odds as a result of the draw, saying it would be "too unwieldy to kind of start adjusting prices." He acknowledged that the inside post may cool betting on Renegade. "I think what it definitely did was it took out the possibility, to me, that he goes off at less than 4-1," he said. There are four Derby alternates known as also-eligibles—Great White, Ocelli, Robusta, and Corona de Oro—all of whom are projected by Tammaro to start at 50-1 if they get a starting berth. Also-eligibles can gain spots if scratches occur before 9 a.m. ET May 1 and, if so, draw into the race on the outside. Rich Strike drew into the Kentucky Derby in this manner. Trainer John Ennis confirmed Great White will be cross-entered in the Pat Day Mile Stakes (G2) on the same card as a backup if the horse does not draw into the Derby. Post time for the 152nd Kentucky Derby, race 12 on a blockbuster program Saturday at Churchill Downs, is 6:57 p.m. ET. The Derby and much of the card will be televised nationally on NBC.