Will Desert Gate Wire the Ohio Derby?

Since the purse of the Ohio Derby (G3) jumped to $500,000 in 2015, the 1 1/8-mile race at Thistledown has consistently drawn competitive fields pitting Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness (G1) alumni against promising up-and-comers who skipped the Triple Crown. The 2026 edition is no exception. The 10-horse field includes five horses who competed in the Kentucky Derby and/or Preakness. Nevertheless, the morning-line favorite is one of the newcomers: #8 Desert Gate (5-2). Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, Desert Gate showed promise against quality competition in California last year, finishing second in the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity (G1) and 1 1/16-mile American Pharoah (G1). Unfortunately, he faltered in his 2026 debut, finishing fourth in the one-mile Robert B. Lewis (G3). That defeat wound up taking Desert Gate out of the Kentucky Derby picture, but he's bounced back nicely in two subsequent starts against easier competition. He wired the one-mile Hot Springs S. by 9 3/4 lengths and led almost all the way to trounce the 1 1/16-mile Texas Derby by 6 1/4 lengths. Desert Gate made a nice visual impression in the Texas Derby. After bumping with a pace rival in the early stages of the race, he assumed command and couldn't help but widen his advantage around the final turn. He turned for home with a daylight lead and extended it to the wire. And while it's fair to question the caliber of competition he defeated, the distant runner-up--Chad Allan--had previously run second by half a length in the Bathhouse Row S., so the decisive margin by which Desert Gate prevailed is impressive. The big question for Desert Gate is whether he can successfully step up in class for the Ohio Derby. I'm optimistic he can. Desert Gate did win at the graded stakes level in the six-furlong Best Pal (G3) last year, romping by 8 3/4 lengths over future Louisiana Derby (G2) runner-up and Kentucky Derby participant Pavlovian. Furthermore, Equibase Race Lens reveals that over the last five years, Baffert has compiled a stellar 9-for-20 (45%) record with horses joining the graded stakes ranks off a win in an ungraded stakes. Several of them--Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) winner Splendora, Awesome Again (G1) conquerors Nevada Beach and Medina Spirit, Woody Stephens (G1) hero Arabian Lion, and La Brea (G1) victor Fun to Dream--won at the Grade 1 level. Cementing Desert Gate as a compelling win contender is the fact he's the only definite frontrunner in the Ohio Derby field. There's a good chance he'll shake loose on an uncontested lead and score his third stakes win in a row. The biggest danger to Desert Gate is arguably #10 Albus (10-1). Albus has shown early speed in the past, most notably employing pace-tracking tactics to dominate a one-mile and 40-yard maiden special weight at Tampa Bay Downs by 6 3/4 lengths. But he's employed deep-closing tactics with mixed results in his two graded stakes starts. First, Albus rallied from eighth place--nearly a dozen lengths off the pace--to beat a deep field by 1 1/4 lengths in the 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial (G2). Among his beaten rivals were future Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Ocelli, eventual Preakness 1-2 finishers Napoleon Solo and Iron Honor, and next-out Peter Pan (G3) runner-up Talk to Me Jimmy. Unfortunately, Albus failed to replicate that performance in the Kentucky Derby. But it wasn't necessarily his fault. Breaking from post 2, he was repeatedly smashed between rivals during the early stages of the race. He wound up racing over a dozen lengths off the pace and never recovered, finishing 15th. The good news is, Albus has posted three timed workouts since the Kentucky Derby and appears to be none the worse for wear. He has every chance to break cleanly while starting from the far outside post at Thistledown, and dropping in class should help his chances. While I slightly prefer Desert Gate given how I project the Ohio Derby pace will unfold, I believe Albus will be closing strongly down the homestretch, and I wouldn't want to leave him out of multi-race wagers. Another logical contender is #3 Chip Honcho (3-1). While not the most consistent horse in training, he's shown flashes of talent against tough competition. He pulled 5 1/2 lengths clear of future Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner Golden Tempo when second by half a length in the Risen Star (G2), and in the Preakness last time out, he raced reasonably close to a quick pace before staying on for third place by 4 1/2 lengths. #5 Ocelli, the third-place finisher from the Wood Memorial, is a must-use horse for exotic wagers like the trifecta and superfecta. Although he's winless in eight starts, Ocelli competed admirably in the first two legs of the Triple Crown, finishing third by one length in the Kentucky Derby and fourth by 7 1/4 lengths in the Preakness. Ocelli's complete lack of early speed is a concern, since it tends to leave him at the mercy of the pace. But he usually comes on to snag a spot in the superfecta. I wouldn't count #2 Robusta (20-1) out of the mix either. True, he's been beaten by double-digit margins in each of his last three starts. But those were the Santa Anita Derby (G1), Kentucky Derby, and Preakness, so Robusta was facing fierce competition. Also, he didn't receive ideal trips in any of those races. Back in March, Robusta employed pace-tracking tactics to finish second by a head in the San Felipe (G2). He pulled 2 1/4 lengths ahead of next-out Santa Anita Derby winner So Happy. A return to that level of form could put Robusta in the hunt for a top-four finish in the Ohio Derby. Don't forget, trainer Doug O'Neill won this race in 2017 with Irap, who was bouncing back from an 18th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. Selections 1st: Desert Gate 2nd: Albus 3rd: Chip Honcho 4th: Ocelli Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Ohio Derby? Special thanks to Equibase, which provided me with a free subscription to Race Lens in exchange for product promotion. All opinions remain my own. ***** Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contests page. There's a new challenge every week!