Will Speed Prevail in the Coaching Club American Oaks?

The richest Thoroughbred horse race taking place in North America this weekend is Saturday's $500,000 Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) at Saratoga Race Course. The historic 1 1/8-mile prize has drawn a strong field of nine three-year-old fillies. The lineup includes Grade 1 winners #6 Always a Runner (9-5) and #1 Counting Stars (2-1), who have traded victories in recent starts. Many bettors figure to favor Always a Runner. The daughter of Gun Runner opened her career with three straight wins from February through May, culminating with a late-rallying triumph in the 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Oaks (G1). In the Oaks, she finished 2 1/4 lengths ahead of third-place finisher Counting Stars. But Counting Stars turned the tables on Always a Runner one month later in the 1 1/8-mile Acorn (G1) at Saratoga. Both fillies rated just off the pace in a small field, and down the homestretch it was Counting Stars who had more in the tank, drawing off to defeat Always a Runner by 3 3/4 lengths. Of the pair, I'm drawn to Counting Stars. She's arguably improved with every start this season, and I like how she finished strongly down the Acorn homestretch, clocking her final furlong in :12.73. She's sticking to the same track and distance for the Coaching Club American Oaks, and she has more tactical speed than Always a Runner, which could come in handy since the Coaching Club American Oaks contains very little pace on paper. But what if the lack of pace hands an insurmountable advantage to #7 Directive (6-1), an up-and-coming daughter of Gun Runner with a promising profile? Directive has raced three times for trainer Chad Brown, who also conditions Always a Runner. Directive debuted in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct Racetrack, in which she gobbled up ground from off the pace to finish second by 2 1/4 lengths. Only 27 days later, she stretched out for a one-mile maiden special weight over the same track and led all the way through solid fractions of :23.08, :46.20, and 1:10.43 to dominate by 7 3/4 lengths. Stepping up in class and distance for a 1 1/8-mile $55,000 allowance optional claimer at Saratoga resulted in another victory. Directive pressed splits of :23.33, :46.96, and 1:10.72 in second place before taking over and holding off a late rival to prevail by one length in 1:48.32. She ran her final furlong in :12.89 even while drifting around and racing greenly, perhaps in response to the whip. There's a good chance Directive will shake loose on an uncontested lead in the Coaching Club American Oaks. If two-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat is able to ration her speed and save enough for the homestretch, Directive can outkick Counting Stars and Always a Runner to spring an upset. It's encouraging to note Brown does well with horses making their stakes debut running long on dirt. According to Equibase Race Lens, he's gone 14-for-77 (18%) with such runners over the last five years. He's been particularly strong over the last year, going 6-for-20 (30%), with the winners including Always a Runner, Emerging Market, Paladin, and Iron Honor. Beyond Directive and the favorites, #8 Zany (9-2) is a logical candidate to include on superfecta tickets. She won her first three starts, including the Demoiselle (G2) and Suncoast S., before finishing second in the Ashland (G1) and sixth in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). Her form seems to have plateaued, but a top-four finish is likely within reach. However, #3 La Rascasse (8-1) may have just as strong a chance to crack the top four at nearly twice the price. The daughter of Authentic has gone 2-for-2 in Kentucky. First, she charged from just off the pace to win a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland by a head. Then she stretched out over 1 1/16-mile and employing pace-tracking tactics to take the Monomoy Girl S. at Churchill Downs by 2 1/4 lengths over a field including Ashland (G1) winner Percy's Bar. La Rascasse is progressing in the right direction and still has upside. Her tactical speed should allow her to sit a perfect trip in the Coaching Club American Oaks, perhaps stalking Directive. From there, she'll have every chance to factor down the homestretch. Selections 1st: Directive 2nd: Counting Stars 3rd: Always a Runner 4th: La Rascasse Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Coaching Club American Oaks? Special thanks to Equibase, which provided me with a free subscription to Race Lens in exchange for product promotion. All opinions remain my own. ***** Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contests page. There's a new challenge every week!