Let's Score a Mild Upset in the Arlington Million

The first weekend in August is a busy one. Saturday includes a bevy of graded stakes from coast to coast, the richest being the $1 million Arlington Million (G1) at Colonial Downs. The morning-line favorite is #5 Burnham Square (5-2). The son of Liam's Map started his career on dirt and enjoyed a productive campaign, winning the Blue Grass (G1) and Holy Bull (G3) in addition to finishing second in the Matt Winn (G3) and sixth in the Kentucky Derby (G1). But Burnham Square has proven effective on turf as well. He enters the Arlington Million off three consecutive stakes wins on grass. First, he dominated the Elkhorn (G2) by 9 3/4 lengths. Then he trounced the Louisville (G3) by 4 3/4 lengths. Most recently, he prevailed by a neck in a hard-fought edition of the Chorleywood S. There is, however, a possible chink in Burnham Square's armor. His runaway triumphs in the Elkhorn and Louisville came racing 1 1/2 miles. His narrow score in the Chorleywood came over 1 3/8 miles. And prior to his win streak, he finished second by 2 1/4 lengths in a $62,500 allowance optional claimer (his first start off a lengthy layoff) and second by a head in the 1 5/16-mile Nashville Derby (G3), both on turf. You can make a case that Burnham Square--at least when he's racing on grass--is at his best running 1 1/2 miles, and is increasingly vulnerable as he shortens up in distance. The Arlington Million takes place over 1 1/4 miles, which could complicate Burnham's Square path to victory as he returns to the Grade 1 ranks. Keep in mind, the Arlington Million field is arguably the toughest Burnham Square has faced this year. The runners-up in his three turf stakes wins have compiled a combined 2-for-33 record against stakes competition. For these reasons, I'm going to oppose Burnham Square with #6 Test Score (9-2), who has repeatedly proven himself against Grade 1 competition on grass. Test Score first emerged as a force against graded stakes competition as a three-year-old in 2025. He won the 1 1/8-mile Belmont Derby (G1), 1 1/8-mile Twilight Derby (G2), and 1 1/16-mile Transylvania (G3), finished second in the 1 1/16-mile American Turf (G2), and ran third in the 1 1/8-mile Hollywood Derby (G1) and 1 3/16-mile Saratoga Derby (G1). Test Score's only misfire against graded stakes foes came when fourth in the Nashville Derby, in which he finished four lengths behind Burnham Square. But that race took place over the unique European-style turf course at Kentucky Downs, so I'm willing to overlook Test Score's defeat. As a four-year-old in 2026, Test Score remains a top-class competitor. He opened the year with a neck triumph in the 1 1/8-mile Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1). Then--following an uncharacteristic eighth-place finish in the 1 1/8-mile Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (G1)--he bounced back in a big way for the 1 3/16-mile Manhattan (G1), closing ground down the homestretch to finish second by half a length against multiple Grade 1 winner Deterministic. Test Score's Manhattan effort was strong on the clock. While Deterministic hit the finish line in the course-record time of 1:50.50, Test Score clocked his final quarter-mile in a swift :22.85 (per the Equibase GPS result chart) to finish only a tenth of a second behind. The previous course record was 1:51.40, so Test Score likewise clocked a final time will under the record. As a son of Lookin At Lucky out of a mare by Kitten's Joy, Test Score has the pedigree to handle stretching out over 1 1/4 miles. I think the Arlington Million distance will suit him better than Burnham Square, setting the stage for Test Score to post a mild upset. #4 Integration (4-1) finished fifth in the Manhattan, beaten only 1 3/4 lengths after running his final quarter-mile in :22.67. He might be 0-for-10 at the Grade 1 level, but he's recorded five top-three finishes against elite company. Integration has placed in the last two editions of the Arlington Million, running second by 1 3/4 lengths in 2024 and third by 1 1/4 lengths in 2025, and another top-three finish appears well within reach. #8 Gran Oriente (CHI) (10-1) is a longshot worth including in exotic wagers. A group 1 winner racing 2,000 meters (about 1 1/4 miles) in Chile, he made his North American debut with an 11th-place finish in the 2025 Breeders' Cup Mile (G1). He's campaigned heavily since then and recently showed respectable form when taking the Mr. Steele S. and Soldier's Dancer H. racing 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream Park. Stretching out over 1 1/4 miles could potentially unlock Gran Oriente's best North American performance to date. Selections 1st: Test Score 2nd: Burnham Square 3rd: Integration 4th: Gran Oriente Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Arlington Million? ***** Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contests page. There's a new challenge every week!