Looking for a Longshot in the Iroquois Stakes

A competitive nine-horse field will race one mile over the Churchill Downs main track in Saturday's $300,000 Iroquois (G3), the first leg of the 2026-27 Road to the Kentucky Derby. The lineup is led by #7 Salahudin (8-5), a stoutly bred son of Uncle Mo out of the Smart Strike mare Weekend Strike. Under the care of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, Salahudin opened his career with back-to-back wins at Ellis Park. First, he won a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight by two lengths over a next-out winner. Then he trounced the seven-furlong Ellis Park Juvenile S. by 4 1/2 lengths. There's a lot to like about Salahudin. He should appreciate stretching out over one mile, and his combination of tactical speed and finishing power is appealing. But I can't pass up the chance to back #5 Real Goodbar (10-1) at a much bigger price. A son of 2020 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner and Horse of the Year Authentic, Real Goodbar impressed when debuting in a maiden special weight racing one mile on grass at Colonial Downs. Breaking from post 11, Real Goodbar was caught wide around the first turn, but nevertheless secured a forward position two lengths off the early tempo. He advanced to press the pace halfway through the race, then kicked away through a :23.96 final quarter-mile to triumph by 3 1/2 lengths. Trainer Kenny McPeek isn't known for cranking his juveniles to win on debut. When they do strike first-time out, it can be a sign of good things to come. Debut winners trained by McPeek in recent years include Thorpedo Anna, Smile Happy, and V V's Dream, three runners who went on to win graded stakes as juveniles. According to Equibase Race Lens, betting McPeek's debut winners when they race for the second time is a profitable exercise. Over the last five years, McPeek has gone 8-for-41 (20%) with such runners, and betting them all would have generated a +17% ROI. Keeping this in mind, I think there's a good chance Real Goodbar will improve significantly in his second start. Switching to dirt could trigger a step forward too. Real Goodbar has been training fast over the Churchill Downs main track, most notably clocking a bullet half-mile in :46 4/5 on Aug. 22, and his pedigree suggests the surface switch won't be an issue. At 10-1, I'm willing to bet Real Goodbar can spring a surprise in the Iroquois. For exotic wagers like the trifecta and superfecta, #1 Caribbean Life (6-1) is worth a long look. The son of promising young sire Life Is Good ran well when debuting in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis Park last month, pressing and then setting pace fractions of :22.64 and :45.82 before pulling away in the homestretch to triumph by 3 1/4 lengths. Caribbean Life clocked his final three furlongs in a respectable :37.48, suggesting he'll be effective while stretching out over one mile. A pair of five-furlong workouts in recent weeks should have him fit for a strong showing, and two-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat is picking up the mount, so there's a lot to like about Caribbean Life. I'm also intrigued by #6 Antivenom (6-1). Some bettors may knock his chances because he was part of a slow pace (:23.76 and :47.63) when winning his debut in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis Park. But Antivenom was full of run down the Ellis homestretch, clocking his fifth furlong in :11.86 and his final sixteenth in :06.03 to draw off and win by 3 1/2 lengths. This fast finish, coupled with Antivenom's pedigree (by Candy Ride out of a Tapit mare), suggests Antivenom may improve while stretching out over one mile--especially since the Iroquois pace is unlikely to be much faster (if any faster) than the pace in Antivenom's debut. #2 Blessed Flyer (9-2) is unbeaten in two starts and may attract some betting support off his win in the six-furlong Bashford Manor S. at Churchill Downs. But Blessed Flyer has been away from the races for 2 1/2 months, and the form of the Bashford Manor took a hit when runner-up #8 He Is No Lie (5-1) returned to finish fourth by 13 1/2 lengths in the Best Pal (G3). Stepping up in class and distance off a layoff could complicate Blessed Flyer's path to the winner's circle. Selections 1st: Real Goodbar 2nd: Salahudin 3rd: Caribbean Life 4th: Antivenom Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Iroquois? Special thanks to Equibase, which provided me with a free subscription to Race Lens in exchange for product promotion. All opinions remain my own. ***** Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contests page. There's a new challenge every week!