A massive storm system forced Oaklawn Park to cancel racing this weekend, but there are multiple-stakes programs awaiting horseplayers Feb. 5 at Aqueduct Racetrack, Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park, and Tampa Bay Downs.
Aqueduct had to cancel their last race Thursday due to dense fog and was expected to receive a wintry mix of precipitation Feb. 4. In the good news department, things are expected to clear out for their first two graded stakes of the year—the Toboggan Stakes (G3), which was originally scheduled for Jan. 29; and the Withers Stakes (G3), a points qualifier for the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1).
There are five grade 3 stakes for 3-year-olds at Gulfstream, capped by the Holy Bull Stakes (G3), which, like the Withers, is worth 17 Derby points on a 10-4-2-1 scale.
In something of a rarity, the Thunder Road Stakes (G3T) is the opener on a Santa Anita program that also features the seasonal debut of presumed female sprint champion Ce Ce in the Santa Monica Stakes (G2) and Express Train going for a second straight score in the San Pasqual Stakes (G2).
Tampa Bay cards a pair of turf stakes at 1 1/16 miles, the Endeavour Stakes (G3T) and Tampa Bay Stakes (G3T).
As you might expect, we've come up with some potential price plays.
Endeavour (Tam, race 6, 2:42 ET): In a shocker, Chad Brown has a couple of up-and-coming grass fillies in Bleecker Street (2), a daughter of Quality Road who is 3-for-3, and In Italian(GB) (7), a Dubawi filly who was a good-looking winner of a first-level allowance in her Jan. 12 comeback.
Stunning Princess (4) and Lady Speightspeare (3) ran second and third in a well-rated edition of the Tropical Park Oaks to conclude their 3-year-old campaigns. They face older turf stakes rivals for the first time.
Oyster Box (10) won off a layoff over the local course last winter and attempts to do the same thing after closing out 2021 with three straight seconds in stakes company.
The horse I want to try and get on the board with some combination of the above is Morning Molly (9), who is 10-1 on the line as she stretches out to her preferred trip after a five-furlong sharpener. Morning Molly is 1-2-0 from three starts over the Tampa Bay layout, notably an allowance win at 32-1 and a close second in the 2021 Hillsborough Stakes (G2T) at 11-1.
A - 9
B - 2, 3, 4, 7, 10
Withers (Aqu, race 8, 4:25 ET): The field of 11 includes seven exiting races on wet tracks, five of those out of the Jan. 1 Jerome Stakes run over an inside-biased sloppy strip. Courvoisier (5) benefited from the conditions to win that race over Smarten Up (3), Cooke Creek (11), Unbridled Brother (6), and Mr Jefferson (10).
It's interesting, then, that Jose Ortiz, who has been riding in top form at Gulfstream recently, returns to New York—not to reunite with Courvoisier, but to stick with Early Voting (9), a debut winner for Chad Brown Dec. 18 going a one-turn mile. Early Voting spots seasoning, but I like the fact that Brown is getting aggressive with this Gun Runner colt, and it's worth noting that in terms of first-out speed figures, Early Voting's was fastest.
Constitutionlawyer (1) earned the top figure overall for wiring maidens Jan. 2, but that was in the mud with first-time Lasix, and no one runs with Lasix in here.
Smarten Up and Unbridled Brother have both posted bullet workouts at five furlongs since hindered by the bias in the Jerome, and they are keys along with Early Voting in a wide-open event.
A - 3, 6, 9
B - 1, 5, 10, 11
Sweetest Chant (GP race 10, 4:37 ET): Opalina (2), Ocean Safari (6), and Battle Charge (8) all returned from short freshenings and began their current form cycles by posting improved figures. Ocean Safari and Opalina were second and third in the Ginger Brew after contending to deep stretch, while Battle Charge was a pace-pressing optional/allowance winner first time on turf at Tampa Bay.
We're going to use the three likely favorites in backup mode, however, and focus on Nostalgic (1) and Ambitieuse (4).
Nostalgic, a Godolphin homebred, uncorked a strong rally to beat maidens when unveiled on the main track at Belmont Park and followed with a wide run off a slow pace to finish fourth in the Demoiselle Stakes (G2) for Bill Mott. Her late-running style is a good fit for turf.
Ambitieuse finished with interest when third in her turf debut at the Big A, then impressed with a maiden win on Gulfstream's recently installed Tapeta track a few weeks later for Graham Motion. Two improved workouts since then may have her primed for a forward move.
A - 1, 4
B - 2, 6, 8
Holy Bull (GP, race 11, 5:10 ET): I would've liked White Abarrio (8) and Giant Game (9) a lot more had they not drawn the two outside posts in this 1 1/16-mile race that features a short run to the first turn and a short stretch run that ends at the first finish line.
Tiz the Bomb (6) was the most promising U.S.-based grass juvenile of 2021 and makes his first start since finishing strongly in a controversial running of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1T). Although the first of his three wins came on dirt, that was an off-the-turf maiden race at Ellis Park, and he has since developed into a deep closer. That's a difficult way to win 1 1/16-mile races on this track.
The keys from cozy posts are Galt (1) and Mo Donegal (2).
Mo Donegal has been freshened since a gutsy win in the Remsen Stakes (G2), and figures to go favored for Todd Pletcher, who has won nine stakes at Gulfstream since Dec. 18 capped by the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes Presented By 1/ST Bet (G1) and Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes presented by Baccarat (G1T) Jan. 29.
Galt is tabbed at 15-1 on the line, but this Bill Mott-trained full brother to Songbird returned from an 11-week break to beat maidens over this track Dec. 26 with blinkers removed. That effort was significantly better than his first two starts last fall, and he projects for another inside-stalking trip sitting behind expected pacesetter Simplification (4). The latter tries two turns after wiring the Jan. 1 Mucho Macho Man Stakes with everything his own way up front.
A - 1, 2
B - 4, 6, 8, 9
