Juvenile form gets the acid test as 18 sophomore colts line up for the first leg of the Japanese Triple Crown April 17 at Nakayama Racecourse.
The Satsuki Sho (Japanese Two Thousand Guineas, G1), features the winners of last year's Hopeful Stakes (G1), Killer Ability, and Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes (G1), Do Deuce. They will take on some late-developing types in the 2,000-meter (about 1 1/4 miles) race as they all look to become the 25th Satsuki Sho winner to go on to victory in the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby, G1).
Early indications are the best of the 2-year-olds from 2021 might have their hands full against the newcomers. Ask Victor More already has jumped up to relegate Do Deuce to second in one of the key Satsuki Sho preps, the Hochi Hai Yayoi Sho Deep Impact Kinen (G2) March 6 over the same course and distance.
Still, form must be respected and last year's grade 1 winners both have solid foundations for the Triple Crown campaign.
Do Deuce, a Heart's Cry colt out of the Vindication mare Dust and Diamonds, won all three starts in 2021, including the listed Ivy Stakes at Tokyo Racecourse in October with Ask Victor More third. His trainer, Yasuo Tomomichi, is so confident in his ability that he's not just looking at the race in front of him but six months down the road to the race that has frustrated Japan for decades—the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1).
"He has put on a lot more muscle, and looks like a horse that could now run well over 2,000 meters or further," Tomomichi said. "Providing he gets to run his own race, results will come his way. We are looking to the Japanese Derby and the Arc with him later this year."
Killer Ability, by Deep Impact from the Congaree mare Killer Graces, was 2-for-4 in 2021 with both wins coming at 2,000 meters.
Trainer Takashi Saito said Killer Ability has been showing "gradual improvement" in training.
"When it comes to a race, he knows when to switch on. While there are still a lot of tasks ahead for him, he definitely has the ability and I hope he'll show us that in this race," Saito said.
Typical of early-season races for 3-year-olds, the Satsuki Sho has not been particularly kind to favorites as only three of the last 10 winners went to the post as the mutuel choice.
Ask Victor More's trainer, Yasuhito Tamura, sees no reason why his colt can't move forward from his victory over Do Deuce.
"After that last race I can feel better about him, particularly in the way that he has tackled each race up to now," Tamura said April 15 after the colt drew gate No. 2. "Just to see him improving with each run gives me confidence as this race approaches."
Be Astonished won the other major steppingstone, the Fuji TV Spring Stakes (G2), and his trainer and jockey both said the colt's chances may depend on his behavior as much as his undeniable speed.
"His character's a little difficult," jockey Ryuji Wada said, "and he didn't want to run on the uphill training track, so we worked him on the Polytrack. He has been running well regardless of this. I think on the day of the race he might get a little worked up but he likes to run and certainly gets up speed, so I hope he can get into a good rhythm and settle well."
Justin Palace will get support in his seasonal debut after winning his first two outings in 2021 and finishing second to Killer Ability in the Hopeful.
The Satsuki Sho field also includes Born This Way, who finished third in the Deep Impact Kinen, and Danon Beluga, who is 2-for-2 with a win in the Kyodo News Hai Tokinominoru Kinen (G3). Both also are by Heart's Cry.
Geoglyph, a son of Drefong, won his first two starts in 2021 but was fifth in the Asahi Hai Futurity and second behind Danon Beluga in his 3-year-old debut.
Equinox, a Kitisan Black colt, defends his unblemished record in his third start after winning the Tokyo Sports Hai (G2). Christophe Lemaire has the mount but faces the challenge of starting from the No. 18 stall.
The race starts at the top of the stretch and runs right-handed around the inner loop of the Nakayama turf course. Last year's winner, Efforia, went on to a Horse of the Year and champion 3-year-old campaign, winning four of five starts with the only loss a heartbreaking second in the Japanese Derby behind this year's Dubai Sheema Classic (G1) winner, Shahryar.
