In the words of President George W. Bush, "Fool me once ... shame on you. If ... fool me you can't get fooled again."
We got the gist. Apparently, though, no one's been heeding the advice of the former chief executive, at least when it comes to the young horses of trainer Keith Desormeaux stepping up in the springtime for any number of Triple Crown preps. For instance:
In January of 2022, Desormeaux came out firing with the Midnight Lute colt Call Me Midnight to win the Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds, knocking off 3-year-olds trained by Steve Asmussen, Brad Cox, and Mark Casse. He paid $59 for a $2 bet.
Back in 2013, Desormeaux did a number on the history books with Ive Struck a Nerve, a son of the sprinter Yankee Gentleman, who was 33-1 when he finished a distant fourth in the Lecomte. However, come the Risen Star Stakes (G2) one month later, Ive Struck a Nerve nailed the Bob Baffert-trained Code West on the line to win by a nose at odds of—gulp—135-1. Among the other stunned victims were eventual Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Oxbow and Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Palace Malice.
This year, Desormeaux was up to his old tricks again on Feb. 25 at Oaklawn Park, where he sent out Confidence Game, by Candy Ride , to win the Rebel Stakes (G2) at a fat 18-1. It was a handsome piece of business under Irish Jimmy Graham, who kept his colt relatively far from the muddy crowd over a wet, slippery course to win by a length.
However, it has been seven weeks now since the Rebel. Major Derby preps have come and gone without a trace of Confidence Game. Rumors swirled that he might have turned up on Saturday at Keeneland for the Lexington Stakes (G3), but no such luck. It was time to go to the horse's mouthpiece to find out if this bonafide Derby hopeful still had a pulse.
"It's been a little bit of a challenge—a fun challenge—trying to figure out what's the best for him to be in peak form for the Derby," Desormeaux said this week from his Louisiana digs. "It required thinking through the logistics of shipping from Louisiana to possibly Oaklawn again, back home, and then to Churchill Downs. I just didn't like the idea of him going back and forth that much. And since we're not up against the pressure of gaining more points to get into the Derby field, I'm able to concentrate on what's good for the horse, and what would get him there in top shape fitness-wise."
Desormeaux does go on, and bless him for being a trainer who can deliver more unfiltered patter than most of his colleagues. It did sound like Desormeaux had been wrestling around with the alternatives, including the Lexington as a competitive bracer, before settling on the outrageous idea of trying to win the Derby off a 10-week break between races. It helps to know your horse.
"He gives us everything we ask for in the morning, which is not always true with a lot of these horses," Desormeaux said. "Also, in terms of his physical constitution, he's not a big, heavy, weight-bearing horse. He's pretty light on his feet. So I'm just not concerned he needed another race before the Derby."
Confidence Game is out of the Bernardini mare Eblouissante, a half sister to Balance, winner of the 2006 Santa Anita Oaks (G1) and the 2007 Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap (G1). It had been 34 years since a filly had swept both those West Coast prizes; her name was Susan's Girl.
Balance was a handful, kind of a Harley Quinn with four feet and an attitude problem. Dave Hofmans channeled the patience of Job and trained her to win more than a million dollars for John and Jerry Amerman. Balance made her final start in the 2007 Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) at Monmouth Park, then 25 days later at Hollywood Park, Balance's half sister Zenyatta made her winning debut for John Shirreffs.
The less said here about Zenyatta the better. No horse should be saddled with that kind of family pressure. Let the record show that Desormeaux got Confidence Game for $25,000 as a yearling. While she reigned, Zenyatta's shoes were worth that much.
"I knew the family before there was a Balance or a Zenyatta," Desormeaux said. "I bought the first foal out of Vertigineux, their dam, for $4,000. She was the last horse through the sale one day during the second week at Keeneland."
The filly, by European champion 2-year-old Aljabr, was indeed last call of Session 9 that September of 2003, wearing Hip No. 3281.
"I won a little stakes with her, and then when Balance broke her maiden coming down the hill at Santa Anita I got an offer," Desormeaux said. "We sold her for a good chunk of money, enough to put my son through college."
Which was perfect, since Where's Bailey was named for the trainer's son, Bailey Desormeaux.
"When he was little, folks didn't care about Keith anymore," Desormeaux said. "Any time I showed up they'd ask, 'Where's Bailey?'"
With nearly $800,000 in earnings, Confidence Game already has made his $25,000 yearling price look like highway robbery.
"How did that happen?" Desormeaux said. "I'd heard he had some issues on his X-ray. But I didn't care. I just knew he didn't belong in the second week, the way he was conformation-wise, how he was balanced, tight-jointed. That horse was coming home with me. The price went rapid fire up to $24,000, they did their thing, then opened up the bids again. I raised my hand and they dropped that hammer so fast. If there was something up I didn't care. As far as I'm concerned, he's perfect."
Desormeaux will care even less when he gets heat for the 10-week spread between starts for his colt. There is precious little room for other voices in his head. Animal Kingdom went six weeks between starts when he won the 2011 Derby. Barbaro (2006) and Needles (1956) each had five weeks off before taking the roses. Ten weeks, though, seems like an eternity, even in these more reluctant days of limited campaigns. Buffs must go back more than a century to Morvich, who won his 11th race without a defeat on Nov. 5, 1921, and did not appear under silks again until May 13, 1922, to win the 48th Derby. That's 27 weeks, but who's counting?
"I like to think of training as an art form," Desormeaux said. "It's not a rodeo. Ten weeks might seem out there, but I don't think it's farfetched. If Confidence Game had only three starts it would be a different ballgame. But he's had seven races, five at a route, and he's been routing since last September.
"Justify won in the face of that 'baby' curse," the trainer added, referring to the colt who won the 2018 Derby without racing as a 2-year-old. "I think I'm doing something way easier than that."
