Before the Kentucky Derby (G1) qualifying points era began in 2013—which placed greater emphasis on recent stakes performances than graded earnings over a horse's career—inexperienced 3-year-olds were infrequent participants in the Run for the Roses, let alone winners.
Going back to the early years of this classic, which has its 150th renewal in 2024, Leonatus captured the 1883 Kentucky Derby after making two prior lifetime starts. Regret would then capture the 1915 Derby after making just three races, as Big Brown would do nearly a century later in 2008.
Since then, a pair of three-race starters—Justify in 2018 and Mage in 2023—have captured the 1 1/4-mile first leg of the Triple Crown at historic Churchill Downs, and the overall participation of lightly raced horses has also increased.
Besides Justify and Mage, 12 other 3-year-olds in the qualifying points era have raced in the Derby with three of fewer existing starts, though none of the others would finish better than sixth.
This year's Derby will also likely include a few inexperienced horses. T O Password qualified for the May 4 race by winning each of his two starts in Japan, and three American runners—Catalytic, Deterministic, and Just a Touch are thrice-raced horses still listed by Churchill Downs as potential Derby starters among its top 25 horses on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard. The field is capped at 20 starters.
Christophe Clement, trainer of Deterministic, has said his 3-year-old is unlikely to compete. St. Elias Stable, Ken Langone, Steven Duncker, and Vicarage Stable's Deterministic ran eighth in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) in his lone two-turn race.
Catalytic, beaten 13 1/2 lengths last out by probable Derby favorite Fierceness when second in the March 30 Florida Derby (G1), and T O Password, who was all out to hold on for a head victory in the 1 1/8-mile Fukuryu Stakes March 23 in Japan, will be longshots if they compete in the Derby.
Saffie Joseph Jr. trains Catalytic, a son of Catalina Cruiser , for owners Tami Bobo, Julie Davies, and George Isaacs. Daisuke Takayanagi conditions T O Password, a Copano Rickey colt, for owner Tomoya Ozasa.
Just a Touch is the top threat among those with three or fewer starts. A speedy colt who broke his maiden in a six-furlong race at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots this winter, he, like Justify and Mage, never raced at 2, having debuted in late January. Before their successes, Apollo in 1882 was the last Derby winner to not race as a juvenile.
Just a Touch's ties to Justify go beyond their racing form. The Qatar Racing, Resolute Racing and Marc Detampel-owned runner is also a son of the Triple Crown winner. The Don Alberto Corp.-bred Just a Touch is out of the graded-winning Tapit mare Touching Beauty, winner of the one-mile Comely Stakes (G3) in 2010.
After Just a Touch's debut maiden win, trainer Brad Cox sent the colt north to Aqueduct Racetrack, where he finished second, beaten two lengths by Deterministic, when racing March 2 over a sloppy track in the one-mile Gotham Stakes (G3).
Cox then raced him in the April 6 Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland, and the colt ran well in defeat by finishing second to the Chad Brown-trained Sierra Leone, most likely the second favorite in the Kentucky Derby.
Chasing another Brown trainee, Top Conor, through demanding fractions of :46.48 and 1:10.83, he passed that tiring rival by midstretch but could not fend off Sierra Leone, who crossed the wire 1 1/2 lengths in front. Just a Touch earned a career-best 105 Equibase Speed Figure for his runner-up finish in this Blue Grass, in which Sierra Leone posted a 1 1/8-mile winning time of 1:50.08.
"We had a great trip," Just a Touch's jockey Florent Geroux said after the Blue Grass. "The pace was a little bit quicker than I thought it would be. It looked great turning for home. I thought I had it, but we just got run down by Sierra Leone."
Just a Touch ran quickly over much of the race, though not over his final eighth, timed in :13.71 according to Equibase global positioning system data.
Cox, who won the Kentucky Derby in 2021 with Mandaloun after the post-race disqualification of the Bob Baffert-trained Medina Spirit for a prohibited medication in the latter's system, said limited experience from his colt does not concern him.
"It actually gives me confidence that he has another step forward left," he said after the Blue Grass.
His other potential Derby starters are Godolphin's Lexington Stakes (G3) winner Encino, who has started four times, and Albaugh Family Stables' Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Catching Freedom, who has five races behind him.
The most experienced member of the Kentucky Derby lineup is expected to be 11-time starter Just Steel, runner-up in the March 30 Arkansas Derby (G1) for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas and owner BC Stables.
