The group of trainers of this year's winners in six of the traditional key prep races for the Kentucky Derby (G1)—Bill Mott, Chad Brown, Phil D'Amato, Todd Pletcher, Bob Baffert, and Brad Cox—started me wondering about how much a few stables dominate the top of this sport and how that has changed over the years.
The findings of a quick study of the biggest Derby preps reveals this consolidation trend is very much the case.
I looked at the winning trainers from six Derby preps in five-year increments: the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2), Blue Grass Stakes (G1), Santa Anita Derby (G1), Florida Derby (G1), Arkansas Derby (G1), and Louisiana Derby (G2). I also put five-year breaks into each period studied to allow us to move further back in time.
Of the four five-year stretches examined, 2020-24, 2010-14, 2000-04, and 1990-94, the current five-year stretch saw the fewest number of winning trainers, 14, accounting for the 30 winners. In this stretch, Pletcher claimed seven wins, Cox sent out the winner in five of prep races, Baffert had three, and Steve Asmussen, Brown, Saffie Joseph Jr., and Tim Yakteen each landed two victories.
That total of 14 different trainers to win at least one of these 30 races from 2020-24 is down 42% from the first five-year stretch examined, 1990-94 (not exactly ancient history), when 24 different trainers secured wins in these races. No trainer in the 1990-94 stretch had more than two wins in these races during that stretch.
In each five-year period examined, the number of trainers to win at least one of these races declined. After the 24 winners in 1990-94, there were 20 in 2000-04, 18 in 2010-14, and 14 in 2020-24.
Final 2024 standings, trends
- Blue Grass Stakes winner Sierra Leone finished atop this year's Road to the Derby points list with 155. He will try to become the first points leader to win the Derby since California Chrome in 2014.
- In the past three years, the Derby winner entered the race ranked 10th or lower in the final points standings. Last year's winner, Mage , ranked 15th while 2022 victor Rich Strike was 21st on the list and made the field off the also-eligible list. In 2021 winner Mandaloun was ranked 10th. He was placed first after the disqualification of Medina Spirit, who was ranked eighth.
- This will be the 12th Derby to use the points system to determine the field of 20 (if needed). In the previous 11 years, five of the winners finished in the top four in the qualifying points standings.
