The always self-assured Mike Repole may not be supremely confident heading into the Travers Stakes (G1), but he hasn't lost an ounce of faith in his homebred champion Fierceness.
As the Aug. 24 showdown for the 3-year-old division at Saratoga Race Course approaches, the billionaire businessman and owner/breeder is pretty much like most $2 bettors. He believes that on Fierceness' best day, he can win the $1.25 million Mid-Summer Derby and stake a claim to the division championship.
"He's capable of winning the Travers by five lengths," Repole said about the 2-year-old champion male trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher. "This horse keeps getting better."
Yet he's aware that the son of City of Light also has an irritating habit of following up a highly impressive performance with a baffling and disappointing one. In his seven-race career that features two grade 1 wins and a grade 2 score, he has yet to win back-to-back races. He has also never lost two races in a row.
And Fierceness is coming off a sharp, length victory over grade 1 winner Sierra Leone in the July 27 Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) at the Spa.
Could it be bounce time again?
"Obviously, sometimes he runs a big race and it takes a lot out of him," Repole said. "What we feel good about is that Todd told me he hasn't missed an oat since the Jim Dandy, which is real encouraging. He has looked great in the paddock. He's getting older and more mature, but if he wins by five or is fourth by seven, how can I be surprised?"
At the start of the summer, the connections faced a decision on how to address a 15th-place finish as the 3-1 favorite in the Kentucky Derby (G1) that came on the heels of a monstrous, 13 1/2-length score in the Florida Derby (G1). The original plan was to combat the colt's in-and-out nature by skipping the Belmont Stakes (G1) and running in the July 20 Haskell Stakes (G1) at Monmouth Park on 11 weeks' rest. Repole said Fierceness would then sit out the Travers five weeks later because of the relatively short break.
That plan was altered to give stablemate Mindframe a shot at a grade 1 win in the Haskell, where he finished second to Belmont Stakes winner and Travers favorite Dornoch. That put Fierceness in the Jim Dandy, when his wheel of fortune went round and round and landed on a victory.
A subsequent injury to Mindframe put the Travers on Fierceness' radar, but he will also be asked for consistency with just four weeks' rest. If five weeks of rest wasn't inviting in June, what's different now, other than the injury to Mindframe?
"Fierceness is doing really well. That's number one," Repole said. "If we don't go to the Travers, what's the next spot? That leaves the Woodward (G2) or the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) and that would leave five or six weeks to the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). So, if we have some spacing, we'd rather have spacing to the Classic. We'd rather have the spacing between the Travers and the Classic than the Jim Dandy and the Travers. We'll give him 10 weeks off for the Breeders' Cup."
In a race that could settle the 3-year-old male championship, Fierceness, the 3-1 co-second choice behind Dornoch, drew the outside post in a field of eight. Two-time grade 1 winner Dornoch (5-2), who can wrap up the title with a win in the 1 1/4-mile Travers, drew post seven, while Sierra Leone will begin his rally from the back of the pack from post two.
The X factor adding to the sizzle in the race is the presence of the fleet filly Thorpedo Anna (3-1), the winner of three straight grade 1s for females. She will break from the rail in a bid to become the first distaff winner of the Travers since 1915.
"I love the post," Repole said about post eight. "It gives (jockey John Velazquez) plenty of options."
While the Jim Dandy marked the first time Fierceness won by fewer than six lengths, Repole says it may have been his best race. The self-appointed commissioner of his National Thoroughbred Alliance liked what he saw in Fierceness' running style as he dug down and fended off Kentucky Derby runner-up Sierra Leone while prevailing in a stretch battle for the first time.
"Stylistically, I think the last race is the best race Fierceness has ever run. He sat a clear second and I think he proved he doesn't need to be on the lead or right on the leader. He made his move on the far turn when Johnny came wide on him. And then, when it looked like Sierra Leone was gaining on him, he found another gear and pulled away," Repole said.
"We know how easily he won the Florida Derby and Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1, by 6 1/4 lengths), but I liked the way he did it in the Jim Dandy. It was his most mature and professional race. It certainly wasn't his most dominant race, even though it came up fast on the speed figures. But he did a lot of things in that race that he never did before."
Now the son of the Stay Thirsty mare Nonna Bella will try to do something else he has never done: Win two races in a row.
"The fun part of a horse like him is that you only have to get worried about every other race," Repole said. "The Jim Dandy was his bounce-back race and he was looking great for it. Now he's looking great and feels great. But you know, I am going into the race with a smile on my face. If he's fourth by seven, then he'll win the Breeders' Cup Classic by five lengths. But it will be exciting to see if he can win the Travers, because if he can string two of them together, I guarantee he can string three wins together."
