If ever there is a race in which to expect quality it is the Dewhurst Stakes (G1). Many an age-old contest now trades on its reputation but this Newmarket showpiece is at least as good as ever.
After it was founded in 1875, the first four winners went on to land classics. And the last four winners have done the same, albeit the globalization of racing in the last century and a half means some of those victories were gained in Ireland or France.
All of which is to say that this is a proper championship event and any colt without pretensions of belonging in the very top drawer is unlikely to be good enough.
The Lion In Winter certainly passes that test, as a classily bred son of Sea The Stars who scored impressively first time out then looked smart in landing the Acomb Stakes (G3) at York in August.
He looks even better now that the York second Wimbledon Hawkeye has taken the Royal Lodge Stakes (G2) and fourth-placed The Waco Kid the Tattersalls Stakes (G3). He is clearly high class and open to plenty of further improvement too.
But the favorite is a short price and is actually 3 pounds behind Middle Park Stakes (G1) winner Shadow of Light on Racing Post Ratings. That rival has had twice as many opportunities to show what he can do, including in group 1 company, and his four-length winning margin in the Middle Park here may have owed something to the distance-extending soft ground.
Charlie Appleby's suggestion afterwards that he might be a six-furlong Commonwealth Cup (G1) horse next year does not engender total confidence for this step up to seven furlongs on the Rowley Mile, for all that he looks as though he should stay the trip.
Godolphin also runs the unbeaten Ancient Truth, who proved his stamina and quality when landing the Superlative Stakes (G2) on the July course in the summer and is clearly still on the up.
The Superlative second Seagulls Eleven hinted at the quality of that contest by running a fine third in the Vincent O'Brien National Stakes (G1) at the Curragh, where he wasn't helped by being bumped late and did enough to earn another crack at a group 1 here.
Expanded defied greenness to make a successful debut at the Curragh last week and has the classy pedigree to be expected of a Ballydoyle 2-year-old. But no once-raced horse has taken this prize since Kala Dancer back in 1984.
Aidan O'Brien has the chance to write two great trainers out of the Dewhurst Stakes record book. John Porter, who prepared three different Triple Crown winners in the Victorian era, and Frank Butters, an eight-time champion between 1927 and 1949, each took this race on eight occasions. O'Brien could surpass them both by landing a ninth victory in a contest he has come to dominate since his initial success with Rock of Gibraltar in 2001.
And the betting suggests that is more than likely, with The Lion In Winter long-time favorite to join a list of Ballydoyle Dewhurst winners that also includes this season's top 3-year-old City of Troy.
"The Lion In Winter is in good form and so far so good," O'Brien said. "Everything has been good with him since York and everyone seems happy. You'd have to be delighted with him at York and on the first day at the Curragh. He looks a classy and very straightforward type.
"We were very happy with Expanded at the Curragh. He's still a baby and it's soon to be going back again but we think the experience will do him good. Rock of Cashel ran well in the National Stakes and we think we haven't seen the best of him yet and he's been in good form since."
Charlie Appleby has got an awful long way to go to match Aidan O'Brien but he is heading in the right direction.
The Godolphin trainer has won the Dewhurst with two of his last three runners—Pinatubo in 2019 and Native Trail two years later. He authorized a £35,000 supplementary entry for Shadow of Light, who took the Middle Park here Sept. 28 and is the mount chosen by William Buick.
"Shadow of Light has come out of the Middle Park in great order," Appleby said. "We know the Middle Park-Dewhurst double has only been achieved a few times but we are confident that he will see out the seven furlongs."
James Doyle comes in for the ride on Appleby's unbeaten Ancient Truth, who completed a hat trick in the Superlative Stakes in July.
"We purposely missed the National Stakes to head here in the best condition," the trainer said. "He looks fantastic, he's strengthened with the break and has done everything right in the lead-up. We have two exciting colts who will hopefully be very competitive against The Lion In Winter."
