Andrew Forsman already has a Caulfield Cup (G1) victory on his CV from his joint venture with Murray Baker, and nine years on from Mongolian Khan's triumph the Kiwi horseman is plotting another raid on the Oct. 19 race with his stakes-winning mare Positivity (Almanzor).
Across their decade-long partnership, Baker and Forsman prepared 24 group 1 winners on both sides of the Tasman Sea and while the latter has continued that trend in his native New Zealand courtesy of Mustang Valley, he is yet to win a race as a solo trainer at the very highest level in Australia.
Despite being priced at $41 in the early betting markets, Forsman firmly believes that provided she maintains the rapid rate of improvement she has shown since maturing from a filly to a mare, Positivity is quite capable of springing a surprise in one of the more open editions of the Caulfield Cup of recent years.
Bred by the late Sir Patrick Hogan and his wife Lady Justine, Positivity booked her place in the first major of the Victorian Spring Racing Carnival with a tough staying performance in the MRC Foundation Cup Naturalism Stakes (G3) at Caulfield, notching her third black-type win for Singapore-based businessman Ben Kwok.
Her subsequent effort from the outside gate in The Bart Cummings (G3), finishing just more than two lengths behind Just Fine, was precisely what her trainer wanted to see ahead of the biggest test of her career Saturday.
"She came through her run in the Bart Cummings in fantastic order," Forsman told ANZ Bloodstock News.
"From the wide barrier we always knew it was going to be a big ask to win the race, but I thought her run was full of merit and it topped her off nicely for the Caulfield Cup.
"She was quite lightly-raced as a 3-year-old but she's just got better and better this season. She's probably surprised me with just how well she has acquitted herself as a 4-year-old with some super performances against the older horses."
Should she run a bold race in Caulfield's AU$5 million flagship event, all roads could lead to Flemington on the first Tuesday in November, with Positivity still holding an entry for the Melbourne Cup (G1).
The 4-year-old, who will jump from barrier 9 Saturday under lightweight jockey Winona Costin, currently sits 30th in the updated Melbourne Cup order of entry which was released Oct. 15. However, given the expected attrition, she should virtually be guaranteed a run should connections decide to contest Australia's most iconic race.
"The Melbourne Cup is definitely still on the radar, but she would obviously have to run well in the Caulfield Cup for us to head to a race of that stature," said Forsman.
Her Caulfield Cup rivals include Ciaron Maher's group 1 winner Circle of Fire, another notable stayer produced by Almanzor who has now taken up permanent residence at Cambridge Stud, where he stands for a service fee of AU$30,000 (plus GST).
Forsman is an avid admirer of the stallion as is Kwok, who runs Lionrock Bloodstock and has multiple horses with the trainer including stakes winners Wessex and Ethereal Star.
The pair will be shopping for more Almanzor yearlings at the upcoming sales, having picked up Positivity for the relatively modest price of AU$160,000 out of Book 1 of the 2022 New Zealand Bloodstock Karaka sale.
"I've had a fair bit of luck with the Almanzors," said Forsman.
"Mary Shan is a multiple stakes performer back in New Zealand and although Moonlight Magic didn't fire in the Queensland Oaks, her two runs before that (in the Trelawny Stud Stakes and the Queensland Derby) were both excellent. So I really like the breed, they are usually very adaptable horses with good temperaments and constitutions and we'll be on the lookout for more for sure."
Almanzor's progeny are generally more adept on yielding tracks, but Positivity appears to be the exception rather than the rule in that she requires a firm surface in order to perform at her best.
"We definitely wouldn't want too much rain in the build-up to Saturday," admitted Forsman.
"She's got a big stride on her and she struggles to lengthen when the tracks get really wet, so we're hoping most of the rain misses and the rating is no worse than a Soft 5 or 6. But we won't be using the state of the track as an excuse, because she's had a faultless prep so far and she's ready to run a race."
