It seems only a matter of time before a challenger from Japan captures the Kentucky Derby (G1). Indeed, it could well have happened in 2024, as it's easy to imagine Japanese runner Forever Young, who was beaten by a pair of noses by Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone, could have prevailed with a cleaner trip.
With that in mind, it's well worth keeping an eye on the Japan Road to the Derby, the first step of which is the Cattleya Stakes that Natural Rise captured Nov. 24.
Natural Rise won by three-quarters of a length over a strong-closing Clay King (from the first crop of Arkansas Derby, G1, division winner Nadal), with Kentucky-breds T O Elvis (Volatile ) and Snappy Dresser (Union Rags ) occupying third and fourth, respectively. The Cattleya was the second win in two starts for Natural Rise, who scored by six lengths on his debut, an about eight-furlong maiden special weight at Sapporo back in July.
Natural Rise is a product of the formula we recently discussed with regard to Do Deuce—winner of the Japan Cup (G1) this weekend—that of crossing a Sunday Silence line stallion over a U.S.-pedigreed mare.
Kizuna, the sire of Natural Rise, is one of the top runners for his own sire, Deep Impact, who is the dominant stallion son of Sunday Silence. Kizuna was particularly successful at 3 when he took the Mainichi Hai (G3) and the Tokyo Yushun-Japan Derby (G1). Sent to Europe, Kizuna held Epsom Derby (G1) winner Ruler of the World at bay by a nose in the Prix Niel (G2), and ran fourth in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1) to the formidable trio of Treve, Orfevre, and Intello. Voted champion of his class in 2013, Kizuna won the Sankei Osaka Hai (G2) on his debut at 4, but was found to have sustained a small fracture to his left hind leg after finishing fourth in the Spring Tenno Sho-Emperor's Cup (G1). Out for the rest of that year, he returned at 5 but never recovered his best form, retiring to Shadai Stallion Station after suffering another injury that September.
At stud, Kizuna made a bright start, ending 2019 as the leading freshman sire in Japan. He's represented by 37 black-type stakes winners from his first six crops, 24 of them graded, including the grade 1 scorers Songline, Justin Milano, and Akai Ito.
Natural Rise's dam, Lady Madonna, was foaled in Japan but conceived in the U.S., having been imported in utero, after her dam, Dreamwriter, was acquired by Narvick International on behalf of Grand Stud for $285,000 at Fasig-Tipton's 2015 The November Sale. A winner twice in six starts in Japan, Lady Madonna produced Natural Rise as her first foal.
Dreamwriter, a daughter of Tale of the Cat, was a winner at 2 in England. She is half sister to the 2014 Breeders' Futurity (G1), Blue Grass Stakes (G1), and Tampa Bay Derby (G2) victor Carpe Diem ; to J. B.'s Thunder, successful in the 2010 Breeders' Futurity; to the five-time graded stakes-winning filly Farrell; and to Doncaster Rover, a multiple group-placed, three-time stakes winner in England. Two other half sisters to Dreamwriter produced stakes winners: Star Sighting is the dam of Pegasus Stakes scorer Salute the Stars, and I'm Wonderful is the dam of last year's Black Gold Stakes winner, Wonderful Justice.
Dreamwriter's dam, Redbridled Dreams (by Unbridled's Song), won the Money Penny Stakes at Hawthorne Race Course and earned graded black-type with a third in the Silverbulletday Stakes (G2) at Fair Ground Race Course & Slots. She is out of Key Cents, a daughter of the Danzig son Corridor Key, who won 13 races, including a pair of restricted New York-bred black-type events.
Centimeter, the dam of Key Cents, was foaled in New Jersey, but she is out the Calumet Farm-bred Penny One. By Best Turn out of a Tim Tam mare, Penny One had an interesting pedigree, as Best Turn's granddam Miz Clementine was a sister to Two Lea, the dam of Tim Tam. The sisters were accomplished runners and producers for Calumet. Penny One's fourth dam, Twilight Tear, was an even more distinguished product as the co-champion 2-year-old filly, and not only division champion at 3 but also 1944's champion handicap mare and Horse of the Year.
Natural Rise is bred on something of a reverse cross to the Peter Pan Stakes (G2) winner Sunday Break, who was by Distorted Humor's sire, Forty Niner, out of Kizuna's dam, Catequil. He's also inbred 3x4 to Kizuna's broodmare sire, Storm Cat, a pattern that appears in two of Kizuna's stakes winners.
