Welcome to this capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail, provided by America's Best Racing. In this second edition of the blog for the 2025 Run for the Roses, the focus is on the changing landscape of the 3-year-old male division over the last three weeks.
1. Sandman
Judging from the response I've seen on social media and in print, I have plenty of company in coming away from the Southwest Stakes (G3) most excited about the runner-up. Take nothing away from Speed King, who held off the late surge of Sandman by a length in the $1 million, 1 1/16-mile race Jan. 25 at Oaklawn Park, but in terms of a Kentucky Derby (G1) candidate, give me Sandman six days a week and twice on Sunday.
The Southwest did not start off with promise for Sandman. There are bad starts and then Sandman's monstrosity coming out of the Southwest starting gate, when he was standing on two hind legs while rearing as the rest of the field charged toward the first turn.
Sandman regained composure quickly but was last of nine and 8 3/4 lengths back after the first half-mile while Speed King set an easy pace. Sandman unfurled a sustained rally to pass all but one opponent and was gaining ground on Speed King at the finish line. A $1.2 million purchase at the 2024 Ocala Breeders' Sales March Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training, the Mark Casse-trained Tapit colt has taken some time to mature but he's bred to run all day and he's improved his Equibase and Beyer Speed Figures in each of his last three starts. Sandman's career-best 101 Equibase Speed Figure for the Southwest and new top 92 Beyer Speed Figure make him very worthy of watching on the path to Louisville.
2. Disco Time
Disco Time's win in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) Jan. 18 at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots has been one of the more difficult Kentucky Derby prep races for me to evaluate in, well, forever, and I outlined the reasons in my profile on Disco Time from Jan. 21.
Essentially, the race was remarkably slow any way you look at it, but at the same time the Not This Time colt overcame an extraordinarily wide trip and closed from 10th of 13 despite a soft pace on a sloppy, sealed track. It was his first time that far back after previously pressing the pace and his first try on an off track.
While I cannot speak with certainty, in my view he was not aided by the surface but won in spite of it. The initial speed figures for the Lecomte were ... generously, not good. His 84 Equibase Speed Figure was a career low and the 77 Beyer Speed Figure regressed back to equal that of his career debut. Still, given the adversity he faced in the race, I believe that win might be better than it looks on paper, and the 12 Ragozin Speed Figure (lower is better for the Ragozin numbers) he received for the Lecomte win was better than I expected.
No doubt, the Brad Cox-trained Juddmonte homebred needs to improve and start running faster races, but he's 3-for-3 now and firmly in the hunt for a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby.
3. Speed King
I had very little confidence in Speed King entering the Southwest for one main reason: he faded late in the one-mile Remington Springboard Mile Stakes in his previous start and finished second after leading in deep stretch. I did not expect him to be able to carry his speed farther in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest on a track that has a reputation for being a deep dirt surface that can be tiring. He proved me (and others) wrong at 14.30-1 odds to earn a place on this list.
One could make a compelling argument Speed King belongs higher up among the top three given he beat my top choice fair and square, but the separator for me really comes down to stamina and the fact that I think Sandman wants every bit of the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby distance. On the other hand, I still have significant doubts about Speed King's ability to extend his speed even another sixteenth of a mile to 1 1/8 miles, much less another three-sixteenths of a mile. That being said, I'm extremely impressed with the Volatile colt. He's fast—receiving a 103 Equibase Speed Figure and 93 Beyer Speed Figure for the Southwest win—and his tactical speed gives him a chance to work out a perfect trip in all of his races.
The fact that Springboard Mile winner Coal Battle came back to win the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn flattered Speed King's runner-up finish. Speed King is just a very good 3-year-old racehorse with a bright future. If trainer Ron Moquett can build up his stamina, there is a good chance this is a Kentucky Derby horse.
