In 2022, a Steve Asmussen-trained son of Not This Time rebounded from a defeat in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) to stamp himself as a major Kentucky Derby (G1) contender with a decisive victory in the Risen Star Stakes (G2). That horse, Epicenter , would go on to add the Louisiana Derby (G2), and following seconds in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes (G1), would capture the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and Travers Stakes (G1)—in which he defeated the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners—to earn the title as champion 3-year-old male of 2022.
Three years later, Magnitude, another Asmussen-trained son of Not This Time appeared to be charting a very similar course. Unfortunately, how far those similarities would have extended will remain unknown as Magnitude—so impressive in this weekend's Risen Star—came out of the race with ankle chip that was surgically removed Feb. 19.
Despite the parallels between the careers of Epicenter and Magnitude up to the Risen Star, there are also some marked differences. Epicenter came into the race as a proven performer having won the 2021 Gun Runner Stakes by 6 1/2 lengths, then missed by just a head in the Lecomte, caught late by a closer after prevailing in a pace duel. By way of contrast, although Magnitude had taken his maiden by 5 3/4 lengths last July, then added a Churchill Downs allowance in November, he had seemed exposed when tackling better, finishing seventh in the 2024 Iroquois Stakes (G3) and then going down by 6 3/4 lengths when second to Built (who finished third in the Risen Star) in the Dec. 21 Gun Runner. And, where Epicenter's Risen Star triumph was decisive, seeing him go wire to wire to score by 2 3/4 lengths, Magnitude's victory was a demolition. The 43.2-1 shot romped by 9 3/4 lengths while setting a record time for the event at that distance (the Risen Star was first contested at 1 1/8 miles in 2020), and running a Beyer Speed Figure of 108, a stratospheric number for a 3-year-old in a Derby prep.
It should be noted that Magnitude did run uncontested on the lead throughout, and on a speed-favoring rail, but it's also worth noting that his other two wins were achieved in wire-to-wire fashion. One hopes that Magnitude will be able to return in late summer, and we'll get a chance to find out to what degree the performance was an artifice of circumstance, and to what degree it revealed his emergence as a true top-class horse.
Magnitude is from the fifth crop of Not This Time, a son of Giant's Causeway who ran just four times, all at 2, winning the 2016 Iroquois Stakes by 8 3/4 lengths, and missing by just a neck to Classic Empire in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). Three of those five crops were sired at an advertised fee of $15,000, with the fourth conceived at $12,500. His fifth crop was conceived on a $40,000 fee. Despite this, Not This Time has already been represented by 44 stakes winners, and in addition to Epicenter and Magnitude, they include 2023 champion turf male Up to the Mark , and other grade 1 winners Cogburn , Just One Time, Princess Noor, Sibelius, and Sacred Wish. His current 3-year-old crop includes another classic trial winner in the undefeated Disco Time, winner of the Lecomte Stakes.
Magnitude is out of the once-raced Bernardini mare Rockadelic. She is a daughter of the top-class Octave, successful in the 2007 Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), 2007 Mother Goose Stakes (G1), and 2006 Adirondack Breeders' Cup Stakes (G2), and also runner-up in the 2007 Kentucky Oaks (G1), 2006 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), 2007 Ashland Stakes (G1), and 2006 Matron Stakes (G1). Incidentally, Octave is by Unbridled's Song, the sire of the brilliant Liam's Map out of the dam of Not This Time. Liam's Map himself came close to having a Derby trial winner of his own at the weekend, his son Caldera missing by a nose in the Sunland Park Derby.
Octave is full or half sister to three other stakes winners, the most notable of which is the Belong to Me product, Belle Cherie, winner of four graded stakes events, including the 1999 Top Flight Handicap (G2), which she took by 7 1/4 lengths. She subsequently produced a pair of stakes winners, including Beau Choix, who also achieved grade 1-placed status. Octave's dam, Belle Nuit, is a stakes-winning half sister to the prolific Ms. Eloise, winner of 16 races, six black-type, including the 1987 Shuvee (G1) and Top Flight handicaps. The second dam of Belle Nuit, Christmas Belle II, was bred in Britain by American financier Richard King Mellon, and imported by him. Christmas Belle's own granddam, Kisaki, was half sister to 1946 Irish Two Thousand Guineas captor Claro and to Dama II, the granddam of Wild Again, hero of the inaugural 1984 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), and later a successful sire.
Magnitude is one of eight stakes winners from 61 starters by Not This Time out of mares by A.P. Indy and sons and grandsons, others including grade 1 winner Sibelius, and graded winners Arzak and Disco Time. Not This Time's half brother Liam's Map has also sired grade 1 winners Colonel Liam and Wicked Whisper out of mares by Magnitude's broodmare sire, Bernardini.
Beyond this, the pedigree is an extremely interesting one, and although it's not obvious from a five-cross pedigree, it builds up a remarkable accumulation of strains associated with Florida's Tartan Farm. The pedigree of Not This Time's dam, Miss Macy Sue, features In Reality (by Intentionally, out of 1959 champion 2-year-old filly My Dear Girl, by Rough'n Tumble). Her dam, Yada Yada, is inbred 2x3 to twice champion sprinter Ta Wee (by Intentionally out of Aspidistra) and is by Great Above (by a son of Rough'n Tumble out of Ta Wee).
Magnitude's broodmare sire, Bernardini, is out of a mare by Quiet American, who is 3x2 to Dr. Fager (by Rough'n Tumble out of Aspidistra, so half brother to Ta Wee, and closely related to Great Above). Octave is by a son of Unbridled, who brings in Dr. Fager and In Reality, and is inbred to Aspidistra, and is out of a mare by Dr. Carter, whose own dam is out My Dear Girl, and so half sister to In Reality. All in all this gives Dr. Fager 7x6x7, Aspidistra 6x7x8x7x8x8, Rough 'n Tumble 8x6x8x7x8x9x7, Intentionally 7x6x7x8, and My Dear Girl 7x8x6, mostly through related individuals.
