1. Tiztastic
Last Saturday was an interesting stop on the Kentucky Derby (G1) trail as three 3-year-olds I really did not view as bona-fide Kentucky Derby contenders stepped up and punched their tickets to Louisville, Ky., for the first jewel of the Triple Crown May 3 at Churchill Downs. Leading off is Tiztastic, who had placed three times in four previous graded stakes attempts before his breakthrough victory in the March 22 Louisiana Derby (G2). There is no doubt he benefitted from a well-timed and clean ride under Joel Rosario, but he looked like a colt who relished the 1 3/16-mile distance and delivered his best race to date, earning a career-top 99 Equibase Speed Figure and 95 Beyer Speed Figure.
I'm a little skeptical of his chances to win the Kentucky Derby because closers like Tiztastic are dependent upon others to ensure a solid pace and traffic is a major concern in a 20-horse race, but I have no doubt this Steve Asmussen trainee will be picking off horses in the Churchill Downs stretch with a big shot to finish in the top three. Add in the fact that he will have six weeks to rest between races, plus a solid foundation of eight starts to date, and I think there is much to like in this late-blooming colt from the first crop of Tiz the Law .
2. Final Gambit
Trainer Brad Cox said on the March 24 BloodHorse Monday podcast he was unsure on the morning entries for the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) were drawn that Final Gambit would even be included in the main body of the field. Cox said he was making preparations to reroute him to the Rushaway Stakes, which did not offer Kentucky Derby qualifying points, earlier on the same card at Turfway Park. Both horse and trainer were fortunate that he did secure a place in the Jeff Ruby, because in the Turfway stretch Final Gambit looked like he was blasted out of a cannon as he finished with a final quarter-mile in :24.02 and a final eighth of a mile in :11.91 to win by 3 1/2 lengths at 15.07-1 odds.
A Juddmonte homebred colt by Not This Time , Final Gambit's previous three races had come against maidens, one on grass and two on the all-weather surface at Turfway. While he had never been worse than third and showed significant ability in a 2 1/4-length win going a mile Feb. 15 at Turfway, Final Gambit was trying stakes competition for the first time while navigating an extra eighth of a mile. He handled both tests with aplomb and earned career-best Equibase (96) and Beyer (90) speed figures.
His next challenge—if his connections opt for the Kentucky Derby, and it sounds like they are leaning that way—will be much trickier as he would make his first start on a dirt main track in the Kentucky Derby. It's easy to look at his sire, Not This Time, and his dam's sire, Tapit , and think that since both were graded stakes winners on dirt Final Gambit should be just fine. But Not This Time has had quite a few nice turf runners and the bottom half of this pedigree definitely slants toward turf. That makes Final Gambit a wild card, albeit a fast and intriguing one with a starting spot in the Derby secured.
3. Flying Mohawk
Like Jeff Ruby Steaks winner Final Gambit, runner-up Flying Mohawk has never competed in a race on the dirt but has a spot in the Kentucky Derby likely secured with 50 qualifying points. This will mark the second year in a row that retired MLB World Series champion Jayson Werth has a starter in the Run for the Roses should trainer Whit Beckman send Flying Mohawk on to the first jewel of the Triple Crown. Werth's Two Eight Racing was a part-owner last year of Dornoch , who finished 10th in the Kentucky Derby but went on to win the Belmont Stakes (G1) and Haskell Stakes (G1).
Two Eight Racing owns Flying Mohawk in partnership with Berry Family Racing and Kaleta Racing, and the dark bay or brown colt by 2014 Breeders' Cup Mile (G1T) winner Karakontie has taken a much different path to Louisville than Dornoch. While Dornoch was a standout on the dirt from the start, Flying Mohawk made his first five starts on the grass, including a pair of dominant wins in his two most recent races on turf. He switched to the all-weather surface at Turfway for the Jeff Ruby and closed powerfully for second after a troubled start.
READ: Connections Celebrate Flying Mohawk Derby Qualification
It's tough to predict which 3-year-olds will handle a surface switch on Kentucky Derby day given there are so many other variables involved, such as a rowdy crowd of 150,0000 and 19 other horses, but Flying Mohawk is another contender who should be passing horses late and doing his best running in deep stretch.
Keep in mind, Animal Kingdom used the Turfway path to Kentucky Derby glory in 2011, Rich Strike prepped in the Jeff Ruby before winning the Kentucky Derby in 2022, and Two Phil's won the Jeff Ruby in 2023 before running second in the Kentucky Derby. Both Jeff Ruby winner Final Gambit and runner-up Flying Mohawk went from completely off the Kentucky Derby radar to securing spots in the field in about a minute and 50 seconds March 22 at Turfway. Amazing how fast things can change!
