One of the premier prep races for the Kentucky Derby (G1) is set for March 29 at Oaklawn Park, when the 89th Arkansas Derby will be held. The 1 1/8-mile race has been very influential on the Triple Crown trail this century, sending several horses on to shine in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes (G1), and Belmont Stakes (G1)--led by 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and including last year's 150th Kentucky Derby winner, Mystik Dan.
Last year, Oaklawn officials raised the Arkansas Derby purse to a rich $1.5 million, which stays the same for 2025. The qualifying points distribution also is bountiful, with the top five Arkansas Derby finishers receiving Derby points on a 100-50-25-15-10 basis. The race drew a field of nine led by two-time Oaklawn Park stakes winner Coal Battle and Bob Baffert-trained Cornucopian, who will be making only his second career start but was made the 7-5 morning-line favorite.
The race will be broadcast on CNBC, FS1, and FanDuel TV, with a scheduled post time of 7:48 p.m. ET.
Read on for information about each of the Arkansas Derby contenders plus some betting insights:
1. Brereton's Baytown (30-1 morning-line odds)
Jockey: Marshall Mendez
Trainer: Paul McEntee
Owners: Baytown Partnerships and Trawitzki Thoroughbreds
Career record: 10 starts—2 wins—0 seconds—0 thirds
Career earnings: $85,773
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 86
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Upstart —Kika, by Birdstone
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker/closer
Analysis: This gelding enters the Arkansas Derby after finishing eighth of 13 starters in Oaklawn's third of four Kentucky Derby prep races, the Rebel Stakes in late February. He dropped more than 20 lengths off the pace early on in that 1 1/16-mile race won by Coal Battle, and passed tiring horses late to finish 11 3/4 lengths behind the winner. Brereton's Baytown was a 188-1 longshot in the Rebel Stakes (G2), and he'll carry very high odds once again Saturday. His two prior wins came in low-purse races at Hollywood Casino at Charles Town Races and Laurel Park, and his career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 86 (earned in the Rebel) is about 15-20 points lower than what will be required to win the Arkansas Derby based on past runnings. Could he be another Rockamundo, who shocked racing fans in 1993 with a 108-1 win in the Arkansas Derby? Highly doubtful.
2. First Division (20-1)
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Owners: Deann Baer, Brett Logan, and Bill Baxter
Career record: 3 starts—1 win—1 second—1 third
Career earnings: $79,800
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 92
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Omaha Beach —Ice Women, by Street Sense
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker/closer
Analysis: This son of 2019 Arkansas Derby winner Omaha Beach profiles as a good longshot to use in exacta and/or trifecta wagers Saturday, although he'd need both a career-best effort plus dud performances by the top contenders to win. First Division has made all three of his career starts at Oaklawn Park, winning his debut in January sprinting six furlongs and then finishing third and most recently second in 1 1/16-mile allowance-optional claiming races. After a poor start, he rallied to end up a head short of Bestfriend Rocket in his lead-in race to the Arkansas Derby and has since posted a couple of good workouts at Fair Grounds in Louisiana. This colt is only making his fourth career start and is eligible to move forward, and if he does that Saturday a third- or even second-place finish is within his reach. Trainer Ken McPeek and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. finished third in last year's Arkansas Derby with Mystik Dan prior to winning the Kentucky Derby.
3. Publisher (6-1)
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Owners: Gus King and the Estate of Brereton C. Jones
Career record: 6 starts—0 wins—1 second—3 thirds
Career earnings: $137,756
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 100
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 10
Pedigree: American Pharoah—Indian Pride, by Proud Citizen
Color: Bay
Running style: Closer
Analysis: Despite still being a maiden (a horse yet to win), Publisher will be making his third consecutive start in a Kentucky Derby points race at Oaklawn Park. He shipped to Oaklawn last December after finishing third in all three of his prior starts, finished second in his debut on this track behind recent Virginia Derby winner American Promise, and then was entered in both the Southwest Stakes and the Rebel Stakes earlier this year. Publisher finished seventh of nine in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest as a 53-1 longshot after an extremely rough trip, and then improved to check in fourth, defeated by 3 3/4 lengths, in the Rebel at the same distance. He also endured some traffic trouble when rallying in the Rebel, and as a result will be fitted with blinkers for the Arkansas Derby. Obviously, Publisher is highly regarded by his owners and trainer Steve Asmussen and perhaps he'll fulfill his potential in Oaklawn's marquee race. He'll face Rebel winner Coal Battle, Southwest winner Speed King, and Sandman(who hit the board in both races) once again, however, making this a very difficult spot to secure that elusive first victory.
4. Bestfriend Rocket (20-1)
Jockey: Nik Juarez
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing Operations
Career record: 6 starts—3 wins—0 seconds—1 third
Career earnings: $142,450
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 92
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Curlin —Noble and a Beauty, by Noble Causeway
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Press the pace/stalker
Analysis: This colt, who is by standout sire, two-time Horse of the Year, and 2007 Arkansas Derby winner Curlin, has had an interesting career path through six starts. He debuted last summer and made no impression in two starts in New York before he was transferred to trainer Brittany Russell and did much better with her on the Maryland circuit, winning two of three races to close out his juvenile campaign. Bestfriend Rocket then changed trainers for the third time and resurfaced this winter at Oaklawn Park with Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, and he won his debut for "the Coach" in gritty fashion, holding off First Division in a 1 1/16-mile allowance-optional claiming race in early March. He's got a pedigree suited for Triple Crown-distance races through his sire and also through his dam's (mother's) family, where he's related to another leading sire in Tapit. Look for jockey Nik Juarez, who recently won the Virginia Derby for Lukas aboard American Promise, to position Bestfriend Rocket right behind projected pacesetters Speed King and Cornucopian through the backstretch and attempt to overtake them on the far turn. He'll need to improve his career-top Equibase Speed Figure (set in his March Oaklawn win) by about 10 points to have a chance at an Arkansas Derby upset.
5. Speed King (15-1)
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Trainer: Ron Moquett
Owners: Triton Thoroughbreds, Naber Racing, Bryan Hennigan, Doug Rapier, and Ron Micetic
Career record: 4 starts—2 wins—1 second—0 thirds
Career earnings: $700,250
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 101
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 25
Pedigree: Volatile —Athenian Beauty, by Corinthian
Color: Gray or roan
Running style: Pacesetter
Analysis: A bounce-back race and a reversion to the "let him run" strategy will be necessary for Speed King to win the Arkansas Derby. In his first three career starts, he set the early pace and was rewarded with two wins, including in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, as well as a close runner-up finish to Coal Battle last December in the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes at Remington Park. But in his start after the Southwest, Speed King did not show his customary early speed when breaking from an outside post in the 1 1/16-mile Rebel Stakes in late February at Oaklawn, racing in fourth early and then fading to finish 10th of 13 runners and 15 lengths behind Coal Battle. He's posted two swift workouts on Oaklawn's track since the Rebel, and jockey Rafael Bejarano figures to be aggressive with his mount early on after Speed King exits a more advantageous post position this time. Doing so will give this talented and fast colt his best chance to post another upset in an Oaklawn Kentucky Derby prep after he won the Southwest at odds of 14-1.
6. Sandman (3-1)
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Trainer: Mark Casse
Owners: D. J. Stable, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds, and CJ Stables
Career record: 7 starts—2 wins—1 second—2 thirds
Career earnings: $444,595
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 101
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 29
Pedigree: Tapit —Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor
Color: Gray or roan
Running style: Closer
Analysis: As he prepares for career start number eight, Sandman shapes up as one of the more consistent contenders on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard. This deep closer has gradually matured since last summer to hold his own against some of the best in the division, and he's been very good in three starts at Oaklawn while still seeking that true breakout performance. This son of top sire Tapit was purchased for $1.2 million as a 2-year-old and won his second career start last summer at the prestigious Saratoga meet. Since moving to Oaklawn, he won a one-mile race around two turns in December, rallied impressively after a horrendous start to finish second behind Speed King in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest Stakes, and then closed again to check in third and 1 ¾ lengths back of Coal Battle in the Rebel Stakes, also at 1 1/16 miles. Sandman should relish an extra sixteenth of a mile to work with in the Arkansas Derby, but on the other hand he might not have a very fast pace to close into. Jockey Jose Ortiz will be aboard Sandman in the Arkansas Derby; he rode the colt once last year but not in any of his starts at Oaklawn. Look for Ortiz to keep Sandman more in touch with the field through the early stages of the Arkansas Derby than he was in the Southwest and Rebel with the hopes of not leaving him with too much ground to make up during his stretch rally. Sandman already has 29 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby, so a third-place finish should punch his ticket to Louisville.
7. Monet's Magic (20-1)
Jockey: Luan Machado
Trainer: Ben Colebrook
Owner: Midway Racing 2023
Career record: 7 starts—2 wins—0 seconds—1 third
Career earnings: $206,139
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 93
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 2
Pedigree: Good Magic —Rontos Lily, by Big Drama
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: Since shipping to Oaklawn Park from Kentucky last December, Monet's Magic has held his own in two starts despite having traffic trouble each time, posting a half-length win in a one-mile allowance-optional claiming race and then outperforming 44-1 post-time odds to finish fifth of nine in the Southwest Stakes (Speed King and Sandman finished first and second, respectively). He's done his best racing around two turns having defeated recent Holy Bull Stakes (G3) winner Burnham Square in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Churchill Downs last fall, and has shown a willingness to compete in stretch duels as well. On the other hand, Monet's Magic's top speed figures are about 10-12 points lower than the historical standard for Arkansas Derby winners. Luan Machado rode Monet's Magic four times last year, all in Kentucky, and he travels to Oaklawn to get back aboard in the Arkansas Derby fresh off of a win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), a Kentucky Derby points race run this past weekend at Turfway Park. A third- or fourth-place finish appears to be the best-case scenario for this longshot.
8. Coal Battle (7-2)
Jockey: Juan Vargas
Trainer: Lonnie Briley
Owner: Norman Stables
Career record: 7 starts—5 wins—0 seconds—0 thirds
Career earnings: $1,053,875
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 104
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 70
Pedigree: Coal Front—Wolfblade, by Midshipman
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Press the pace/stalker
Analysis: There might not be any Cinderellas left in the NCAA men's basketball Sweet Sixteen heading into this weekend, but barring any setback there'll be at least one on the grounds at Churchill Downs for Kentucky Derby week in Coal Battle. He's a true working-class hero racehorse who in the past three months ascended from trainer Lonnie Briley's Louisiana home base to reel off commanding wins in two Oaklawn Park Kentucky Derby points races, the Smarty Jones Stakes and Rebel Stakes, and secure his position as one of 20 possible starting-gate contenders for the most prestigious race in North America. Since he's safely in the Kentucky Derby, the pressure meter is set on low for Coal Battle Saturday, but he's been for too consistent (a perfect 5-for-5 on dirt) to expect anything less than a top-three finish against this field. Coal Battle has shown versatility in his running style, having won the Smarty Jones Stakes by setting the pace and the Rebel Stakes using stalk-and-pounce tactics. With Cornucopian unproven at a route distance and Speed King the only other confirmed front-runner in the Arkansas Derby field, look for Coal Battle to be prominent early under regular jockey Juan Vargas, racing close to the projected pace horses and in a position to bid for the lead on Oaklawn's far turn.
9. Cornucopian (7-5)
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owners: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert Masterson, Tom Ryan, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan
Career record: 1 start—1 win—0 seconds—0 thirds
Career earnings: $66,000
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 108
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Into Mischief —Magical World, by Distorted Humor
Color: Bay
Running style: Pacesetter/press the pace
Analysis: All eyes will be on certifiable Kentucky Derby "buzz horse" Cornucopian when the Arkansas Derby gates spring open Saturday evening. Talk about being ambitiously placed—the son of leading sire Into Mischief will be making his second career start in a 1 1/8-mile Grade 1 Kentucky Derby prep after winning a sprint race five weeks ago. How he won that race is the key, though. Cornucopian dominated nine opponents in a six-furlong dash on the Rebel Stakes undercard at Oaklawn, breaking well, taking pressure on the turn, and then drawing away effortlessly after changing leads in the homestretch to score by 5 3/4 lengths and earn a 108 Equibase Speed Figure. It was a very impressive debut to say the least, and based on the way he finished, his stride, and his physique, Cornucopian has the look of a colt that will crave racing around two turns (he's also got an excellent pedigree for stamina). That being said, moving up to this high level off of only one race is challenging, and although California-based trainer Bob Baffert has shipped horses into Oaklawn to win the Arkansas Derby five times (tied for first in the race's history), he's also had a few that haven't run to their reputation—Concert Tour in 2021 and Cupid in 2016, for example. How this exciting prospect handles his class test holds the key to the Arkansas Derby outcome: if he improves when stretching out and no other opponent, including aptly named Speed King, tries to run with him early, Cornucopian could win this race from start to finish under Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez. He will need to finish first or second to secure a spot in the Kentucky Derby based on the points cutoff in recent years.
