This column has made it to another Kentucky Derby (G1), and after weeks of giving you the stats and trends of the big prep races we'll close it out with some nuggets that give some amount of hope for every horse in the race.
Let's take a look at this year's field in post position order:
1. Citizen Bull: While a Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) winner has won the Kentucky Derby (G1) just twice, those two occasions have come in the past 18 years. There were nine years between the first horse to sweep the two races, Street Sense in 2007 and Nyquist in 2016. This year marks another nine-year gap.
Trainer Bob Baffert, who has won this race six times, is aiming to become the first trainer to win it seven times. While there have only been five gate-to-wire winners of the Derby since 1976, two of those horses—Authentic and War Emblem—were trained by Baffert. Citizen Bull is a candidate to lead this race early.
2. Neoequos: As one would guess, most of the Derby winners were bred in Kentucky, with Mystik Dan taking that number to 116 last year. But the state that ranks second on that list is Florida, with six. Neoequos, the lone Florida-bred in the field, will try to become the state's seventh Derby winner off his third-place finish in the Florida Derby (G1).
3. Final Gambit: In the fifth start of his career, Final Gambit will race on dirt for the first time Saturday in the Kentucky Derby off a victory on the all-weather surface in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park. In 2011 Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby in his first start on dirt in the fifth start of his career off a victory in the Spiral Stakes (now named the Jeff Ruby).
4. Rodriguez: Scratched
5. American Promise: The Virginia Derby winner is trained by four-time Derby-winning trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who in 2022 won the Kentucky Oaks (G1) at age 86 when he sent out Secret Oath to victory. Last year he added a Preakness Stakes (G1) score with Seize the Grey . No reason to think another Derby win is not on the horizon.
6. Admire Daytona: While no horse has completed the UAE Derby (G2)-Kentucky Derby double, Forever Young nearly pulled it off with an impressive third-place finish in the 2024 Kentucky Derby.
7. Luxor Cafe: While no Japan-trained horse has won the Kentucky Derby, Forever Young came close last year as he finished third but missed victory by two noses despite a rough stretch run.
8. Journalism: The son of Curlin is undefeated in two-turn races and will try to become the 11th Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner to take the Kentucky Derby. Six favorites have won the Derby since 2013, the most recent of those being Justify in 2018. Justify is also the most recent Santa Anita Derby winner to win the Kentucky Derby.
9. Burnham Square enters the Derby off a victory in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). While it's been 34 years since a Blue Grass winner went on to win the Derby, that 1991 winner, late-running Strike the Gold, rallied from fourth of six to win the Blue Grass before rallying from 12th to win the Derby. Burnham Square raced last of seven in the Blue Grass early before his late run carried him to a narrow victory.
10: Grande has improved his Equibase Speed Figure in each start and finished second in his last-out stakes debut, the Wood Memorial Stakes. An improving horse for two-time Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher deserves a long look.
11: Flying Mohawk figures to be one of the longest shots in this year's Derby off a runner-up finish in the Jeff Ruby. In 2022 Rich Strike won the Derby at odds off 80-1 off a third-place finish in the Jeff Ruby.
12. East Avenue: Godolphin homebred rolled through his first two career starts last year, cruising to a 5 1/4-length victory in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland. After stumbling at the start of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and losing all chance and then a poor effort in the Risen Star Stakes (G2), he looked to be back to his 2-year-old form when a close second in the Blue Grass. If he can improve off that effort, he's dangerous.
13. Publisher: While he enters the Derby without a win as he tries to become the first maiden to win the Derby since Brokers Tip in 1933, he boasts some strong Derby breeding as a son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah out of a mare by 2002 Derby runner-up Proud Citizen.
14. Tiztastic: Like Publisher, he is trained by Steve Asmussen who leads all conditioners with 10,863 wins through April 30 but is looking for his first Derby win. It seems a safe bet for that win to eventually arrive and he's had horses run well in the Derby as five of his runners have hit the board, including Epicenter 's runner-up finish in 2022.
15. Render Judgment: This son of Blame figures to be one of the field's longest shots, as his only win arrived in a maiden race last year at Churchill. Trainer Ken McPeek landed his first Derby win last year; perhaps lightning can strike twice.
16. Coal Battle: He finished third in the Arkansas Derby (G1), but the most recent start doesn't always tell the full story. The son of Coal Front reeled off four straight stakes wins before that effort.
17. Sandman: In graded stakes the son of Tapit saw his late kick come up short four times but he appeared to put everything together in his most recent start, rallying from 13 lengths back to win the Arkansas Derby under Jose Ortiz. Eclipse Award winner Ortiz is looking for his first Derby win—certainly a breakthrough candidate here.
18. Sovereignty: Throw out the stats and just look at this Godolphin homebred race or gallop, or run or stand. He's something. If we need a stat though, he's a son of multiple leading sire Into Mischief , who boasts two winners since 2020 in Authentic and Mandaloun .
19. Chunk of Gold: The odds say winning the Derby will be a high hurdle for this son of Preservationist, but he's never been overmatched in a race as he's finished first or second in all four starts. He enters off a runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2).
20. Owen Almighty: Like Chunk of Gold, this son of Speightstown brings consistency to the Derby. Before his off-the-board finish in the Blue Grass, he'd finished first or second in every race.
21. Baeza (also-eligible): With the May 1 scratch of Rodriguez, this son of McKinzie has drawn into the race. He brings a four-race record in which he's improved his Equibase Speed Figure in each start and he'll try to become the fourth Santa Anita Derby runner-up since 1997 to take down the Kentucky Derby.
