Newmarket has been and gone, and the Curragh is still to come, but it is the turn of Longchamp to provide the next chapter of the European classic season May 11, starting with the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French Two Thousand Guineas, G1).
Ruling Court and Desert Flower ensured last weekend ended in Godolphin dominance, but the Poulains has an open feel to it and, as ever, the draw could be crucial.
A low draw over a mile of the Grande Piste is even more important than for the Arc over half a mile further. On the likely good ground facing an 18-strong field for the Poulains, the chances of Camille Pissarro (drawn 15), Luther (16), and Sahlan (13) look to have taken a significant knock, but favorite Henri Matisse looks favorably berthed in stall 6.
It is straightforward geometry that places a premium on a low number, with the long sweep of the right-handed bend coming up barely a furlong after the stalls.
Going back to 2000, 13 of the 22 Poulains to be run at Longchamp have attracted a field of 12 or more, among which only the exceptional Lope de Vega won from a double-figure stall.
Charlie Fellowes, trainer of Luther, said his Frankel colt may have what it takes to overcome.
"What he brings to the party and his biggest strength is just how uncomplicated he is. He's so straightforward and he's got the most wonderful temperament. He's the sort of horse you could put anywhere, and I know he's not going to run keen or do something stupid," Fellowes said. "We didn't want a wide draw, but he is bombproof."
A high draw can get you close—Intello, New Bay, and Indesatchel each ran mighty races to be placed from deep on the track—but Longchamp is even more favorable to low numbers when the ground is good. While the cutaway rail in the home straight may make for fewer traffic problems, there are enough of the fancied runners drawn low to concentrate on.
Hotazhell brings excellent 2-year-old form into the race as the winner of the Beresford (G2) and Futurity Trophy (G1) stakes, and Shane Foley won't be afraid to make use of his good fortune in stall 2.
Henri Matisse has a verdict over Hotazhell at the Curragh from last August, and Ryan Moore can save ground from stall 6 aboard a horse who has mostly been held up and whose only try at a mile was a victory around two turns in the 2024 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1T) at Del Mar.
"Henri Matisse is good and has been good since Leopardstown. We think the track and the nice ground will suit him, as will the trip so I'm looking forward to seeing him," Aidan O'Brien said.
His run on soft ground here in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (G1) was the worst of his career, but it's not unfair to think that the soft ground rather than the track configuration was the undoing of Henri Matisse that day.
Charlie Appleby and William Buick may want to bottle the feeling of combining for a Guineas double at Newmarket last weekend but Aomori City's habit of dwelling at the start might count against him.
"We are delighted with how Aomori City has come out of the Craven and he has a sensible draw for Longchamp in stall 8," Appleby said. "We have a little to find on the book with a few of the field, but he goes into this in great shape and with plenty of experience under his belt. I'm expecting a good run."
A Chelmsford conditions race may seem an unconventional classic trial, but both Detain and runner-up Luther are viable on the balance of their form. Stall 9 is just about workable for Colin Keane on Detain, while Oisin Murphy must find plenty of inspiration from 12 aboard Jonquil, who showed a lot of speed in the Greenham Stakes (G3) and isn't absolutely guaranteed to get home.
The French form suggests that Prix de Fontainebleau (G3) first and third, Ridari and Misunderstood (the likely pace angle) can play a hand from low draws, while the returning Houquetot and the experienced Selenien shouldn't be underestimated.
More chances for Juddmonte
Juddmonte left the Rowley Mile with something of a feeling of what might have been after Two Thousand Guineas (G1) favorite Field of Gold failed to get to Ruling Court in time, but they have two chances to go one better at Longchamp.
Jonquil and Detain were elected as the candidates for Paris following winning returns at Newbury and Chelmsford. Of the two, the market favors Greenham winner Jonquil, the mount of Murphy and trained by Andrew Balding.
Barry Mahon, racing manager for Juddmonte, said: "It's a slightly easier mile at Longchamp, and Oisin felt like Jonquil would stay a mile, but he said he has a lot of pace and until you try it you can't be sure. I think he was pretty ready for the first day. Andrew says he's training as well as he was the first day and he's very happy with him, and we're looking forward to seeing what he can do.
"The Chelmsford race is worth a lot of money, so John and Thady Gosden said they'd use that as a trial for France for Detain. That means he's only had the one start on turf, but he trains on grass and works well. He's a son of Wootton Bassett, and I don't envisage that being a problem as long as the ground is good."
