Five Weeks' Rest is Best for Belmont but Three Can Work

In terms of race spacing, should the sport get the Belmont Stakes (G1) showdown it's hoping for of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Sovereignty and Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Journalism, there are some positive trends for each horse that should bring a smile to the faces of their connections and backers. 

Godolphin homebred Sovereignty would be entering the gate for the Belmont June 7 at Saratoga Race Course off five weeks' rest from his previous start, a 1 1/2-length victory in the Kentucky Derby on a sloppy Churchill Downs surface. That five-week gap ahead of the Belmont has become the ideal in terms of winning performances in what is typically the final classic of the season.

From 2000-24, 14 horses have won the Belmont Stakes off five weeks' rest. That approach accounts for 56% of the Belmont winners since 2000. (We're including filly Rags to Riches in that group. She won the 2007 Belmont off her runaway victory in the Kentucky Oaks (G1); so for her the gap before her Belmont win was 36 days.)

After watching Sovereignty breeze five furlongs in 1:02.54 on the Oklahoma Training Track at Saratoga, trainer Bill Mott said his Derby winner appeared to be strong. Mott captured the 2010 Belmont with Drosselmeyer, who entered off four weeks' rest after a runner-up finish in the Dwyer Stakes (G2).

"He's almost a little more aggressive," Mott said. "(The Derby) hasn't set him back. He's just getting a little stronger than he was. He wasn't quite that strong (before the Derby)."

In looking at the past 25 editions of the Belmont, there are reasons for optimism for a horse making a three-week turnaround. And Journalism, who finished second in the Kentucky Derby before bulling his way between horses and launching the latest of rallies to win the Preakness three weeks ago, falls in line with those trends. 

In the 25 previous editions of the Belmont, six winners entered off of three weeks' rest. That's a 24% strike rate but there are other trends in Journalism's favor. Of those six winners, like Journalism, five won their previous starts with four of those five winners coming out of the Preakness. Those Belmont victors include Triple Crown winners Justify  and American Pharoah  as well as Preakness-Belmont winners Afleet Alex and Point Given.

A day after the Preakness win, such trends didn't seem to be a major concern for Aron Wellman of Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, co-owner of Journalism. He told BloodHorse the day after the Preakness that the horse ultimately will indicate if the three-week turnaround is a fit.

"(Journalism) will tell us whether he's ready to go back in three weeks," Wellman said. "It's something we'd like to do. It's something we are going to prepare for logistically in the event he does give us the green light. While we had a week between the Derby and Preakness to decide, we have two-plus weeks to decide now."

The Journalism ownership group also includes Bridlewood Farm, Robert LaPenta, Elayne Stables 5, breeder Don Alberto Stable, and Coolmore, which has secured the colt's breeding rights.

The other horses to win the Belmont off of three weeks' rest since 2000 are 2008 victor Da' Tara, who entered the Belmont off a runner-up finish in the Barbaro Stakes on the Preakness undercard; and 2002 winner Sarava, who won that same race on the Preakness undercard when it was called the Sir Barton Stakes.

Tiz the Law  won the Belmont off of 12 weeks' rest in 2020, a year in which COVID-19 played havoc with the racing schedule.

Three of the past four Belmont winners secured victory off five weeks' rest: Dornoch  last year, Mo Donegal  in 2022, and Essential Quality  in 2021. Arcangelo  followed his 2023 Peter Pan Stakes (G3) win with a Belmont victory four weeks later. Four weeks off ahead of the Belmont has produced four winners since 2000.

The two most recent horses to win the Belmont off three weeks rest are Triple Crown winners Justify, in 2018; and American Pharoah, in 2015.