There's been some debate as to whether this upcoming Nov. 1 edition of the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) is the best since the series started in 1984.
What goes without question is that the field of 10 pre-entered in America's richest race is so deep and star-studded that gamblers will have a field day betting on the race and getting odds way above the horses' prices in recent races.
To help put that in perspective, Jon White, who retired in 2024 after 15 years as the oddsmaker at Santa Anita Park and constructed the morning lines for 8 editions of the Breeders' Cup, was asked to create a morning line for the Nov. 1, $7 million showdown at Del Mar.
As expected, there were bargains galore—starting with his choice for the favorite, Sovereignty. White put the Godolphin 3-year-old's ML odds at 8-5, which equates to $5.20-$5.40 on a $2 bet. That's substantially higher than the colt's final odds of 3-10 ($2.60) when he breezed to a 10-length victory in the Travers Stakes (G1).
"Sovereignty is the key to the betting and there's a chance he can go lower than 8-5," White said. "But I don't want to do that so that I can use those points to balance the line in regards to the odds on other horses. I don't want to raise other horses' odds to put him lower. That's why I am comfortable at 8-5."
White understands that with four straight wins, starting with the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1), Sovereignty has the kind of name recognition that will make him a red-hot item in the betting pools.
"He's THE horse coming into this and that's something I have to take note of," he said. "When you have these 'superstars,' they get overbet. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out a lot of people are going to bet on him."
As for the rest of the field ahead of the Oct. 27 post position draw after the scratch of Locked , here's White's complete line in order of odds: Sovereignty 8-5; Sierra Leone 9-2; Fierceness 9-2; Forever Young 6-1; Mindframe 8-1; Journalism 10-1; Antiquarian 15-1. Baeza 15-1; Nevada Beach 20-1; and Contrary Thinking 30-1.
A year ago, 3-year-olds dominated the race. Sierra Leone and Fierceness ran 1-2 in the Classic as Fierceness chased a blistering :44.96 opening half-mile and Sierra Leone took charge in the stretch and won by 1 1/2 lengths. Forever Young, who finished third in last year's Kentucky Derby, two noses behind Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone, rallied late for third in the Classic, 1 1/4 lengths behind Fierceness.
In the final odds for last year's Classic, Fierceness was the 5-2 favorite, with Forever Young 4-1, and the victorious Sierra Leone 6-1.
With all three back for their 4-year-old season and each owning a grade 1 win in 2025, it's not surprising they were the next choices.
In making Fierceness and Sierra Leone, the Whitney Stakes (G1) winner, co-second choices at 9-2, White had some trouble settling on odds for Fierceness. In his last start, the East Coast-based, Todd Pletcher-trained, Repole Stable-owned 4-year-old returned to Del Mar and faced 2-5 favorite Journalism in the Pacific Classic (G1).
Despite ducking in at the start, Fierceness registered a decisive 3 1/4-length victory over the younger Preakness Stakes (G1) winner. The victory came on the heels of a disappointing fifth-place finish as the 6-5 favorite in the Whitney.
"Fierceness is a tough one because he's a Jekyll and Hyde. I made him co-second favorite because that was a big race he ran in the Pacific Classic. After what happened to him early, he sat off the pace and won with authority. He didn't just beat Journalism; he beat his brains in. If he runs one of his freaky races, he can win."
The value in the 9-2 price on Fierceness is reflected in his last 10 races, when he was favored 7 times and never higher than 7-2.
White also debated over a price for $20 million Saudi Cup (G1) winner Forever Young before settling on 6-1.
"With Forever Young, I have that race in Saudi Arabia in my head and it makes me think about the Kentucky Derby again," White said. "Right off the bat, he's not far from Sierra Leone."
At some sportsbooks, Mindframe, who has been less than 2-1 in 6 of 8 career starts, has been offered at a double-digit price. But White expects him to attract interest off two grade 1 wins this year, including a length score over Sierra Leone in the Stephen Foster Stakes (G1).
"I tried to take into account who could be the 'wise guy' horse in the race and it might be him. I didn't want him at double digits," White said about Mindframe. "I can see him drifting down to 5-1 or 6-1, or drifting up to 10-1 or 12-1. Sometimes you have to throw your opinion into the mix, because if I think he can be a live horse, so will a lot of other people."
Making the odds harder to predict, a key element in Mindframe's past performances could lead to some people staying away and sparking a higher price.
Though Mindframe's 2025 record shows 3 wins in 4 starts, the loss came in his last try, the Jockey Club Gold Cup. (G1). On that day, as the 9-5 second choice, he took the worst of a scary crowding incident, and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. was knocked off the 4-year-old runner.
"That type of thing in the past performances could lead to some people staying away and create higher odds," White said.
Reflective of the depth of the race, three-time grade 1 winner Journalism was listed at 10-1, despite never being higher than 9-2 in his 10 career starts and going off as the favorite in his last six races.
As for Contrary Thinking, the controversial "rabbit" in the race, though he was 70-1 in both the Whitney and Jockey Club Gold Cup, White priced him at only 30-1, the highest price Breeders' Cup wanted him to use when he crafted morning lines for the series.
"It's going to be a great race," White said. "Of all the Classics, the only one with a better field was probably 1998 when Awesome Again won."
