Claiborne Farm's War Front may be tracking outside the top 25 so far this year by progeny earnings, but in one of the most important categories for a stallion—3-year-old stakes winners—he leads the North American standings based on results since 2016.
The 18-year-old son of Danzig has sired 32 3-year-old winners giving him 11% winners in this category from 2016 through July 19 of this year. His black-type winners include 15 graded stakes winners and two grade 1 winners. His 3-year-old representatives were particularly strong in 2019 with high-profile Triple Crown series contenders Omaha Beach , who missed the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) due to an entrapped epiglottis but won three grade 1s that year; and, War of Will , who won the Preakness Stakes (G1).
Stallions whose progeny excel at 3 are particularly valuable because 3-year-old races are among the most sought-after prizes by owners (the Triple Crown series) and they offer the greatest earning potential. In 2019, North American 3-year-olds represented 28.5% of all runners and earned 32.5% of all purses, according to statistics from The Jockey Club Information Systems. Three-year-olds collectively earned more than $396 million in 2019, which is an average of $28,807 per runner. The average earnings for all North American runners in 2019 was $25,219.
In an attempt to make comparisons more equitable, our sire rankings by 3-year-olds performance have been subdivided into groups by number of runners. One of the challenges with percentages is that they can be skewed among sires that have relatively few runners. For example, Stonehedge Farm South's Cajun Breeze has 10% cumulative black-type winners because he has one black-type winner from 10 starters. By comparison, WinStar's Fed Biz and Airdrie Stud's Cairo Prince led the third-crop sire class with five black-type 3-year-old winners each, but Fed Biz has 4.1% stakes winners from 121 starters and Cairo Prince has 3.2% stakes winners from 155 starters.
Second-crop sires and third-crop sires have been divided into two groups: those with 50 or more 3-year-old runners and those with less than 50 runners. Stallions with three or more crops of 3-year-olds have been divided into three groups: Sires with 100 or more runners, sires with 50-99 runners, and those sires with less than 50 runners. Sires with less than 10 3-year-old runners have been excluded.
The other leading sires by percentage of 3-year-old stakes winners among sires with the highest number of runners is a list of the usual suspects. The late Scat Daddy is the second-leading sire by percent black-type sophomore winners at 9.7%, followed closely by Gainesway's Tapit at 9.6%, Ashford Stud's Uncle Mo at 8.2%, and Hill 'n' Dale Farms' Curlin at 8%.
Spendthrift Farm's marquee sire Into Mischief is hitting on all cylinders this year. By percentage of cumulative 3-year-old stakes winners, he ranks sixth at 7.7% but is poised to improve his position. He leads the 2020 standings as of July 24 by number of 3-year-old black-type winners (nine), number of 3-year-old stakes performers (17), number of 3-year-old grade 1 winners (two), and by 3-year-old progeny earnings ($3,665,680). The 15-year-old son of Harlan's Holiday is also the overall leading North American sire by progeny earnings ($7,166,794), by number of winners (100), by number of black-type winners (18), and by number of graded stakes winners (eight). He leads the rankings by 2-year-old winners, too, with the highest total juvenile progeny earnings ($321,190) and co-highest number of winners so far with six alongside Claiborne's First Samuari and Rancho San Miguel's Sir Prancealot .
Joining Feb Biz and Cairo Prince among the top third-crop sires with 50 or more 3-year-old runners by percent stakes winners is Spendthrift's Cross Traffic , who ranks second at 4% from four black-type 3-year-old winners out of 100 runners. Cairo Prince leads this group by number of graded stakes winners with three followed by Spendthrift's Goldencents and Adena Springs Kentucky's Mucho Macho Man , who have two graded stakes winners each. Following Cajun Breeze by percent black-type winners from runners among the sires with less than 50 runners are Calumet Farm's Real Solution (8%), the late Maryland stallion Seville (5.3%), and Double Tree Farm's Abstraction (5.3%).
Ashford Stud's American Pharoah leads the ranking by percent black-type winners at 6.7% among 2020's second-crop sires with 50 or more runners, and he is the leader among all second-crop sires by number of 3-year-old graded stakes winners with three. By percent black-type winners, American Pharoah is followed by Airdrie's Summer Front (5.4%) and WinStar Farm's Constitution (4%). In addition to being among the leaders by percent stakes winners, four sires have at least two 3-year-old graded stakes winners so far: Summer Front, Constitution, and Lane's End sires Honor Code and Tonalist .
Gainesway's Karakontie leads the second-crop sires with less than 50 runners with 7.5% 3-year-old black-type winners. The son of Bernstein actually has the highest percentage of black-type winners for his sire class and is close to our cutoff line separating the subgroups with 40 runners. With 10 more starters and one more black-type winner, Karakontie would own a commanding lead within his sire class by percent of cumulative black-type 3-year-old winners, no matter how you sliced it.
