The Oct. 2 Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1) has always been the ultimate destination for Luxembourg. His journey to France may have been delayed in a few places and there was also a detour to the Fitzdares Royal Whip Stakes (G3) at the Curragh along the way, but he is here now and he is favored.
Not since Camelot in 2012 has there been a Ballydoyle-based favorite in the Arc, and that runner finished seventh in the mile and four-furlong test. While Found led home a 1-2-3 finish for Aidan O'Brien in 2016 and Dylan Thomas did the business under Kieren Fallon in 2007, two Arcs is not a lot for the master trainer, who has dominated so many group 1 events all over the world.
Luxembourg was unbeaten as a juvenile, winning the Vertem Futurity (G1) on soft ground at Doncaster on his third outing, and there was plenty to like about his fine effort in the Two Thousand Guineas (G1) when third to Coroebus on his first start at 3. An early stumble had him on the back foot there.
A muscular injury ruled him out of the Cazoo Derby (G1), a race he was ante-post favorite for, and he needed a month of box rest for it to heal. O'Brien has said he had to do unnatural work to get him back on track, but he has taken it all in his stride and a workmanlike Royal Whip win Aug. 13 followed by an Irish Champion Stakes (G1) success Sept. 10 that was both classy and courageous has teed him up perfectly for D-Day in Paris.
"It's a case of so far, so good," O'Brien said of Luxembourg. "We've been very happy all the time since Leopardstown. Everything has gone as good as it could have gone at this stage. We've been very pleased with all his runs and he really put his head down and fought to the line in the Irish Champion."
Longchamp officials are expecting testing ground once again for the Arc after the forecast rain moved closer to the time of the race, and clerk of the course Charles de Cordon said: "The rain never arrived on Friday night but now we are expecting some on Saturday night and again on Sunday afternoon. I think we'll be racing on ground that reads around 4.0 (very soft)."
Regarding the conditions and Luxembourg's chances, O'Brien said: "I don't think anybody wants extremes of ground and we are the same, but he did run on soft in the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster last year."
It will be Luxembourg's first try over the distance, but O'Brien doesn't envisage it being a problem.
"We always felt he was going to be very comfortable at middle-distance trips," he said.
O'Brien is also represented by Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (G1) winner Broome, the mount of Wayne Lordan.
'Alpinista Possibly has the Best Form'
Since starting out as a trainer in 1970, Sir Mark Prescott has only once had a runner in the Arc, yet he has never before had a horse like Alpinista, the magnificent mare who attempts to deliver a victory that would be cheered throughout British racing and beyond.
It was 21 years ago that Foreign Affairs finished tenth as a 42-1 outsider under George Duffield. Connections never really fancied him to do much better, but Alpinista is an altogether different sort of animal, comparable to Foreign Affairs only in that both were bred by Kirsten Rausing.
Alpinista also races in Rausing's silks, colors Luke Morris has worn when guiding her to five consecutive group 1 triumphs, the first three in Germany—in one of which she defeated last year's subsequent Arc hero Torquator Tasso—the fourth in France and the most recent at home in Britain, where she confirmed herself a genuine Arc player by winning the Darley Yorkshire Oaks (G1).
That has left Alpinista vying for favoritism and leaving Prescott in a position with which he is unaccustomed.
"I think she quite possibly has the best form in the book," the trainer said. "At some time or other she has beaten nearly all of them or she holds them through collateral form. There is also that tantalizing hope she might improve again. Alternatively, she might have reached the glass ceiling. I honestly don't know the answer, but I do have a feeling that, to date, she has run a little bit better in every one of her last seven races.
"Number six historically seems to be a good spot, but three very hot rivals are all around us, so they are in a good spot. Unfortunately, there is also this ghastly statistic that the last 5-year-old mare to win was in 1937. Even by my standards that's a fair while ago."
Prescott, who is hoping no further rain falls at Longchamp, added: "If she could win it would probably be the high spot of my training career, other than interesting records like Masafi winning seven races in 17 days or Misty Halo winning 25 races as a mare. They were great days but they were only really great days for me. I don't suppose many other people thought they were all that good. If you win the Arc, however, everybody notices.
"The truth is that if I had known Alpinista was going to win five consecutive group 1 races, I wouldn't have cared about the Arc. If she could win the Arc it would be a good wodge of icing on the cake and a bit of marzipan as well."
Torquator Tasso Aims for Title Defense
Frankie Dettori will rely on defending winner Torquator Tasso to provide him with a record-extending seventh Arc, but they must first overcome a challenging draw.
The 5-year-old caused a 72-1 shock last year when powering through the heavy ground to deny Tarnawa by three-quarters of a length for German trainer Marcel Weiss and jockey Rene Piechulek, who due to his retainer will ride Mendocino.
That opened the door for Dettori to partner Torquator Tasso in the Grosser Preis von Baden (G1) last month, when he finished a head behind Mendocino, and in the Arc.
Torquator Tasso began his season ominously when finishing down the field in a Baden-Baden group 2 but bounced back at Hamburg, winning the Grosser Hansa-Preis (G2) before lining up in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1) in July, when he showcased his versatility in finishing 2 3/4 lengths behind Pyledriver on good to firm ground.
Dettori was given a 14-day ban for overusing his whip aboard Torquator Tasso at Baden-Baden, but connections have stuck with him here.
Weiss said: "This is obviously a different situation to last year when we were much more relaxed going into the race as relative outsiders aiming to be in the first three. This year he is among the favorites and if we're not in the first three I'll be disappointed.
"Immediately after Baden-Baden we made the decision with the owner to stick with Frankie. He agreed there and then."
Torquator Tasso is in stall 18 of 20, but his jockey has previous when it comes to defying difficult draws. Dettori won from stall 15 aboard Sakhee in 2001 and was drawn wide in 14 when giving Golden Horn a masterful ride in 2015.
You have to go back to 1989, when Carroll House struck from stall 16, to find a winner drawn wider than that pair, while only seven horses in the 102-year history of the race have defended their title.
Torquator Tasso is prominent in the market behind the Sir Mark Prescott-trained Alpinista and Luxembourg, and while Weiss is aware of the challenge facing his runner, he believes softer conditions at Longchamp could play into their hands.
"I have a lot of respect for Alpinista—who has been prepared exclusively for one day—and Luxembourg, while you shouldn't underestimate Mendocino," he said. "Ultimately the ground will play a big part and stamina could be key. Looking at his work he is in exactly the same shape this year as he was before the Arc when he won."
Titleholder Leads Japanese Challenge
If there is one horse in the 2022 Arc line-up who has improved beyond all recognition this year it is Hiroshi Yamada's Titleholder. According to France Galop's handicapper, Titleholder is not just the highest-rated among four Japanese-trained challengers but the best horse in the entire race.
He comes into the Arc with two dominant performances at the top level. He dispatched the re-opposing Deep Bond and a host of other good horses over two miles in the Tenno Sho (G1) before showing he was just as effective over a mile and three furlongs when carrying all before him in the Takarazuka Kinen (G1) in late June.
On both occasions his relentless galloping style left his rivals gasping for air, and if the son of Duramente is to succeed where his compatriots have previously come up short, it seems almost certain to be in swashbuckling front-running style.
Asked if he would feel compelled to make the running in the Arc, Titleholder's rider Kazuo Yokoyama said: "That's a good question. The horse will decide at what rhythm he wants to run and I will just adapt."
Yokoyama may be riding in his first Arc—as are Rob Hornby on Westover and Bauyrhzan Murzabayev on Australis—but he gained a feel of the Longchamp track when jetting in from Japan two weeks ago for a single ride in a class 2 race over a mile.
For Titleholder's trainer Toru Kurita, this is also a first Arc experience, and one which he is determined to make the most of.
"Titleholder has made enormous progress this year, both mentally and physically, and that is the reason for his improved performances," said Kurita. "It was the owner's choice after we discussed it together. The trials are quite close to the race, and even though he had a long break over the summer, he arrived here with a good base to his preparation.
Kurita added: "It's difficult to put a number on it with the unknown about how the ground will ride, but he is getting better and better and he's coming just right for the race."
The Arc is a Breeders' Cup Challenge event for the Nov. 5 Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (G1T) at Keenland.
