Breeders' Cup races bring together the best horses from coast to coast in the United States along with some top international contenders, which can make World Championships races unpredictable.
That unpredictability is a big part of the allure, not only for the competitors but for bettors who spend much of the year handicapping five- and six-horse fields and suddenly feast their eyes on a program filled with quality fields of 10-14 starters. To put it succinctly, if you have a strong opinion on Breeders' Cup day you will be rewarded when correct.
There are winners at double-digit odds at every Breeders' Cup, and even if your best bet is between 3-1 and 9-2 odds, you can bet them big to win or get creative with exactas/trifectas or multi-race bets to reach for a bigger payout.
Perhaps no race over the past 25 years has been as consistently unpredictable as the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), which has had 10 winners at double-digit odds from 1999-2023. Just last year, Fierceness rolled to a 6 1/4-length runaway victory Nov. 3 at Santa Anita Park in the 2023 Juvenile one start after losing by 20 1/4 lengths in his final pre-Breeders' Cup start. His backers in the Juvenile were rewarded with a $35 return for a $2 win bet.
Using the past 25 editions of the race as the guide, here are some key trends and historical nuggets to help you pick a winner for the 2024 Juvenile Nov. 1 at Del Mar.
Look for Lots of 1s
Let's set aside Fierceness last year for a minute. He looks like a clear anomaly over the past quarter-century as the only Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner to enter the race off an unplaced finish. The other 24 entered off a top-three finish with 16 of the 25 and 10 of the past 14 coming into the Juvenile off a win. The group as a whole won 55 of 86 starts for a 64% win rate.
In Fierceness' case, my best explanation is that he ran a hole in the wind in his debut and his seventh-place finish in the Champagne Stakes (G1) was a negative reaction to a monster race in his first start. He has since proved to be a bit of a quirky racehorse and also much better than his 16.5-1 odds in last year's Juvenile suggested.
Value Class
In evaluating the past 25 editions of the Juvenile, some winners have run exceptionally fast like War Pass in 2007 and Uncle Mo in 2010, both earning 123 Equibase Speed Figures. Others, like Shanghai Bobby (86 Equibase Speed Figure), ran winning races that were, well, not so fast. It seems obvious, but in terms of speed figures, consider these 2-year-old contenders in comparison with their peers rather than a historical benchmark.
Place a strong emphasis on class as 12 of the past 25 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winners had already won a grade 1 race and 15 were at least stakes winners. Only three were not either graded stakes-placed or a stakes winner. One of the three was Fierceness and the other two entered off maiden wins for Hall of Fame trainers: Action This Day (2003) and New Year's Day (2013).
Prior to Fierceness, the previous nine Juvenile winners were either grade 1 winners or had finished in the top three in a grade 1 race.
Top Trainers Are, Well, Hard to Top
When you glance at the list of Breeders' Cup Juvenile-winning trainers over the past 25 years, many of the names will be recognizable to casual fans: Bob Baffert (five wins), Todd Pletcher (four wins), Doug O'Neill (two wins), Chad Brown, Brad Cox, Richard Mandella, Mark Casse. Add in older Hall of Famers such as Carl Nafzger and Nick Zito and elite European trainer Aidan O'Brien and these are the trainers of 18 of the past 23 Breeders' Cup winners.
It makes sense as big trainers are training a higher percentage of the horse population, but suffice it to say to look in obvious places first when trying to find the 2024 Juvenile winner.
Profile of a Winning Favorite
Only five of the past 25 editions of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile were won by the race favorite, but all five of those runners were unbeaten, having combined to win all 14 of three pre-Breeders' Cup starts. They were rising stars for Nick Zito (War Pass, 2007), Todd Pletcher (Uncle Mo , 2010; Shanghai Bobby, 2012), and Bob Baffert (Game Winner , 2018; Corniche , 2021) who capped unbeaten championship campaigns. Four of the five were pace or press-the-pace types with only Game Winner preferring to rally from off the pace.
Uncovering Longshots
Seven of the 10 winners at double-digit odds from 1999-2023 came at Southern California venues, either Santa Anita or this year's host Del Mar. If you eliminate the two editions held on an all-weather surface in Southern California, six of the other nine editions in the state were won by double-digit longshots.
Keep an eye on closers. Of the 10 total double-digit longshots since 1999—ranging from 10-1 (New Year's Day, 2013) to 45-1 (Storm the Court, 2019) odds—six were fifth or worse after the opening quarter-mile and four were between 11th and 14th after a quarter-mile had been run in the 1 1/16-mile race. Five of the 10 were eighth or worse after a half-mile had been completed.
Only two of the 10 longshots entered off victories: Action This Day won at 26-1 off a maiden win in 2003 and New Year's Day won off of a maiden win in 2013. Seven of the other eight entered off a top-three finish in a grade 1 or grade 2 race. Only Fierceness was unplaced in his final start from among this group.
No Dominant Running Style
Five of the past 25 editions of the Juvenile were won by confirmed pacesetters, while three were press-the-pace type runners. Three closers won the race and another five prevailed who fit a stalker/closer mold. There also were seven who profiled as stalkers and two others who fit into the stalker/press the pace category, so no particular running style has been especially effective.
Tactical speed has been helpful with 10 winners running in either first or second after the opening quarter-mile and half-mile. Likewise, only two of the past 25 Juvenile winners were more than two lengths back in early stretch.
In the nine editions held on dirt in Southern California, six of the runners were in the top three after the first quarter-mile and seven of the nine were in first in early stretch, so it has been more difficult to close in the Breeders' Cup Juveniles held on dirt in California.
Bluegrass Appeal
Only one Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner in the past 25 years was not bred in Kentucky: Irish-bred Vale of York, a 30-1 longshot winner on the all-weather surface at Santa Anita in 2009. It's a safe bet that this year's Juvenile winner will be a Kentucky-bred 2-year-old.
2024 Contenders
Over the past 25 years, 10 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winners came out of prep races in California, five came out of the Champagne Stakes in New York, and four made their final pre-Breeders' Cup start at Keeneland in the Breeders' Futurity (G1), so it makes sense to start there.
Citizen Bull won the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita by two lengths for his second win in three starts for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has won 20% of the last 25 editions of the race. Citizen Bull is a strong win candidate, but others have more appeal to me.
East Avenue looks like the most likely winner coming out of a front-running, 5 1/4-length romp in the Breeders' Futurity. The Godolphin homebred trained by Brendan Walsh improved to 2-for-2 with the win and has tactical speed, but I don't think he's a need-the-lead type.
Chancer McPatrick is another unbeaten contender after closing from ninth to win the Champagne Stakes by 2 3/4 lengths for top trainer Chad Brown. He's 3-for-3 and comes out of a very productive prep race.
For bettors looking for a longshot, American Pharoah runner-up Getaway Car was favored over Bob Baffert stablemate Citizen Bull in that race. He was taken off the pace for the first time in the American Pharoah and ran pretty well. He could be the best value of Baffert's three prospective contenders. Likewise, Ferocious finished second as the favorite in the Breeders' Futurity after he unseated his rider before the race and then was bumped entering the first turn.
If you are looking for a true bombs-away longshot, I have two that might fit the bill. McKinzie Street finished a well-beaten third in the American Pharoah Stakes after a runner-up finish in the grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. He does his best running from off the pace and enters off a top-three finish in a key California prep race. Japanese invader Shin Believe, a Kentucky-bred for top Japanese trainer Hideyuki Mori, enters off a dominant maiden win at 1 1/8 miles in his career debut and very likely will be overlooked.
