The road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1) winds its way back down to Hot Springs, Ark., Feb. 23 for what shapes up to be a crucial prep race at Oaklawn Park. A full field of 14 3-year-olds is entered in the 65th edition of the Rebel Stakes (G2), which distributes Kentucky Derby qualifying points on a 50-25-15-10-5 basis to the top five finishers and offers a lucrative $1.25 million purse.
Get to know each of the contenders (post position order) along with some betting analysis in ABR's Rebel Stakes Cheat Sheet.
1. Coal Battle (10-1 morning-line odds)
Jockey: Juan Vargas
Trainer: Lonnie Briley
Owner: Norman Stables
Career record: 6 starts - 4 wins - 0 seconds - 0 thirds
Career earnings: $453,875
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 96
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 20
Pedigree: Coal Front—Wolfblade, by Midshipman
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Press the pace
Analysis: Every once in a while, a Kentucky Derby contender emerges with connections that haven't been represented on the Triple Crown trail in past years. Coal Battle is the first Derby prospect for owner Norman Stables and veteran trainer Lonnie Briley, and the working-class colt is a legitimate contender based on his back-to-back victories in the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes (where he defeated Rebel foe Speed King by a half-length) and the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn. In the Smarty Jones, Coal Battle seized command early and led the field from start to finish going 1 1/16 miles, a departure from his previous races when he settled in a stalking position and then rallied. That Smarty Jones strategy was a snap decision by jockey Juan Vargas when no other horse vied for the early lead, and in the Rebel Coal Battle will have to deal with front-running Speed King plus other forwardly placed horses such as Innovator and Smoken Wicked. Whether he duels for the early lead or sits back and pounces, Coal Battle must be respected in this field.
2. Admiral Dennis (12-1)
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Trainer: Brad Cox
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables
Career record: 4 starts - 2 wins - 0 seconds - 1 third
Career earnings: $119,800
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 97
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 2
Pedigree: Constitution —Gulf Coast, by Union Rags
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: This son of good young stallion Constitution disappointed as the 4-5 favorite in his previous Derby prep race, finishing fourth and 16 1/2 lengths behind Built in the Gun Runner Stakes in December at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots. Admiral Dennis had an excuse in the Gun Runner, however, as he stumbled at the start and then had his rallying move fizzle on the second turn of the 1 1/16-mile race. Trainer Brad Cox brought Admiral Dennis back for another race at Fair Grounds going the same distance, and this time the colt showed some of the promise he first displayed in his maiden win in November at Churchill Downs, taking over in the stretch to score by three quarters of a length. Now he faces a tough assignment against a loaded Rebel field, but Admiral Dennis has connections who've been successful on the Derby trail over the past 10 years and should not be overlooked. His morning-line odds of 12-1 figure to drop in the single-digit range by the time the race is run.
3. Sandman (4-1)
Jockey: Cristian Torres
Trainer: Mark Casse
Owners: D. J. Stables, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds, and CJ Stables
Career record: 6 starts - 2 wins - 1 second - 1 third
Career earnings: $344,595
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 101
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 14
Pedigree: Tapit —Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor
Color: Gray or roan
Running style: Closer
Analysis: Sandman is the 4-1 morning-line favorite in this year's Rebel, and those odds are indicative of this race's quality. The striking gray or roan Tapit colt had a disastrous start in his prior race, the 1 1/16-mile Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Jan. 25, when he reared up and veered sideways, nearly unseating jockey Cristian Torres. He recovered, though, and after trailing the field for the first half-mile he began to rally entering the far turn and really picked it up in the stretch, taking aim on front-running Speed King. Although he nearly capped off an amazing comeback, Sandman "ran out of real estate," as racetrackers say, and finished a length back in second. This colt, who was purchased as a yearling for $1.2 million, has tantalizing potential, and if he can take the next step forward in development and (of course) avoid a terrible start, he should be rolling thorough the Rebel stretch with a great chance to win or at least finish in the top three and pick up some more Derby qualifying points.
4. Hypnus (10-1)
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Owner: Brookdale Racing
Career record: 1 start - 1 win - 0 seconds - 0 thirds
Career earnings: $36,000
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 91
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Into Mischief —Dream Tree, by Uncle Mo
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: Hypnus is a current "buzz horse" on the Kentucky Derby trail based on his eye-catching debut Jan. 18 at Fair Grounds. The son of leading sire Into Mischief out of grade 1 winner Dream Tree, by Uncle Mo, stalked the pace early in a 1 1/16-mile maiden event on a sloppy track and took over impressively in the stretch, drawing clear to win by 2 1/2 lengths. He was a 16-1 longshot in that race, and despite the fact that he's moving from a maiden win to face a far tougher field in a Kentucky Derby prep, Hypnus figures to carry lower odds in Sunday's Rebel. He earned a good speed figure in his debut, and if he can improve in start number two—like many 3-year-olds do—he has a chance to finish in the top three Sunday and join the upper echelon of Kentucky Derby contenders. Trainer Ken McPeek and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. teamed up to win last year's Derby with Mystik Dan, and by Sunday evening we'll have a better gauge on whether Hypnus can lead them back to Churchill again.
5. Madaket Road (9-2)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owners: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert Masterson, Tom Ryan, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan
Career record: 3 starts - 1 win - 1 second - 1 third
Career earnings: $80,000
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 97
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 6
Pedigree: Quality Road —Frolic's Dream, by Smoke Glacken
Color: Gray or roan
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: Starting in 2010, California-based Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has won an impressive eight editions of the Rebel, a 50% success rate (the Rebel was held in two divisions in 2019, resulting in 16 overall races and Baffert has had 16 starters). This year, Baffert will be represented by Madaket Road, a colt that many racing analysts say is one of his second-string horses among a stacked group of Kentucky Derby prospects. The son of Quality Road has reeled off three solid races in his career, debuting with a runner-up finish in a Del Mar stakes race in November, winning a six-furlong sprint at Santa Anita Park in late December, and then finishing third behind a pair of stablemates in his two-turn debut, the one-mile Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita Feb. 1. In that race Madaket Road tired in the stretch to check in six lengths behind Citizen Bull and 2 1/4 lengths behind Rodriguez, and that is cause for concern as he ships halfway across the country and competes against a full field going an extra sixteenth of a mile in the Rebel. As the above record shows, however, a Bob Baffert entrant should never be dismissed in this race, and Madaket Road picks up the services of top jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. for the first time.
6. Publisher (20-1)
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Owner: Gus King and the Estate of Brereton Jones
Career record: 5 starts - 0 wins - 1 second - 3 thirds
Career earnings: $77,756
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 100
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: American Pharoah —Indian Pride, by Proud Citizen
Color: Bay
Running style: Closer
Analysis: This son of 2015 Rebel Stakes winner and Triple Crown hero American Pharoah was ambitiously entered in his previous race, the Jan. 25 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, despite still being a maiden. Publisher had a rough start in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest and was also bumped hard by American Promise in the stretch as he began to rally, and he crossed the finish line in seventh but was moved up to sixth due to that interference. In his start prior to the Southwest, Publisher earned a good speed figure when finishing second to American Promise in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race held in late December at Oaklawn on a muddy track. His connections must feel Publisher was not able to show his true talent in the Southwest, so they are bringing him back in an even more challenging race and also assigning Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat to ride for the first time. He's worth a look as a longshot candidate that could be used in trifecta and superfecta bets but would be a very surprising Rebel winner, especially when considering that his recent rival American Promise finished fifth when beaten by 13 lengths in last week's Risen Star Stakes (G2).
7. Dreaminblue (15-1)
Jockey: Francisco Arrieta
Trainer: Randy Morse
Owners: Randy Patterson, Sam Vogel, and Joe Morgan
Career record: 4 starts - 1 win - 1 second - 0 thirds
Career earnings: $99,500
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 104
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Street Boss—Dreamy Blues, by Curlin
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: Here's an intriguing longshot contender in the Rebel who has shown enticing talent in his recent two races held at Oaklawn but faces a new challenge Sunday as he competes in a two-turn race for the first time. Dreaminblue finished fourth in his first two career starts but improved significantly in late December at Oaklawn, rallying through the stretch only to lose by a head to Innovator in a six-furlong maiden race. Next, Dreaminblue tried the same conditions again Jan. 25 and surged to an impressive 3 1/2-length win. Jockey Cristian Torres was aboard this colt for both of those Oaklawn races, but he will ride Sandman in the Rebel. Underrated jockey Francisco Arrieta takes the mount on Dreaminblue. He'll match up against Innovator again drawn just to his outside Sunday plus several more accomplished horses, and his pedigree suggests he's best suited to one-turn races. Still, based on speed figures, Dreaminblue fits in well with the top Rebel contenders, and he stands an outside chance at posting the upset in this year's loaded race.
8. Innovator (15-1)
Jockey: Tyler Bacon
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Owner: BC Stables
Career record: 8 starts - 1 win - 4 seconds - 1 third
Career earnings: $197,555
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 101
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 6
Pedigree: Authentic —Inspired, by Unbridled's Song
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Pacesetter/press the pace
Analysis: This colt from the stable of Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas projects to be one of the early leaders in Sunday's Rebel. He served in that role in his prior race, the Lecomte Stakes (G3) held at the same 1 1/16-mile distance as the Rebel, holding a clear lead into the homestretch before tiring late to finish a close fourth, only three-quarters of a length behind winner Disco Time. That was Innovator's two-turn debut, and he had competed well in seven prior starts dating back to last summer for Lukas, including posting a head victory over Dreaminblue in a December sprint race at Oaklawn and losing by a head to highly regarded Barnes in another sprint race in November at Churchill. Innovator's pedigree as a son of Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Authentic suggests he should run better in route races than sprints, so if he improves in his second start at 1 1/16 miles he'll be a threat to finish in the top three at what should be high post-time odds. Apprentice jockey Tyler Bacon was aboard Innovator's win in December where he led from start to finish and gets back aboard for the Rebel.
9. Smoken Wicked (8-1)
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Owner: Valene Farms
Career record: 8 starts - 4 wins - 1 second - 1 third
Career earnings: $307,542
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 112
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 2
Pedigree: Bobby's Wicked One —Street Smoke, by Street Boss
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Press the pace
Analysis: After competing in four consecutive stakes races last summer and autumn against some of the best colts in his division and finishing no worse than fourth in each contest, Smoken Wicked has improved by leaps and bounds in his three most recent starts, all victories. The last two of those came in sprint stakes races restricted to Louisiana-breds at Fair Grounds, and Smoken Wicked dominated both times, winning by a combined margin of seven lengths. That level of competition is much lower than what this colt will face in the Rebel, and on top of that, he'll be attempting to race two turns for the first time as well. Smoken Wicked has a sprinter's pedigree but also has the highest Equibase Speed Figure among the Rebel field—a 112 earned in his most recent win at Fair Grounds. Furthermore, his only poor race to date came at the longest distance he's tried, that being a fourth-place defeat by 15 1/2 lengths in last fall's Champagne Stakes (G1) held at one mile around one turn. He appears to be over-valued at 8-1 morning-line odds in this competitive field, but Smoken Wicked is far too consistent to completely dismiss. Look for jockey Tyler Gaffalione to be aggressive in the early stages and have Smoken Wicked situated among the top three or four horses through the first turn and backstretch.
10. Bullard (5-1)
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Owners: St. Elias Stable, Talla Racing, Three Chimneys Farm, and West Point Thoroughbreds
Career record: 3 starts - 2 wins - 0 seconds - 1 third
Career earnings: $129,000
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 105
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Gun Runner —Reve d'Amour, by Warrior's Reward
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: Bullard joins Madaket Road as West Coast-based Rebel starters this year, and he'll be looking to rebound from a somewhat disappointing 3-year-old debut in the Jan. 4 San Vicente Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita, where he finished six lengths behind leading Kentucky Derby prospect Barnes in third. That followed a perfect 2-for-2 campaign for Bullard last fall as a juvenile, highlighted by a dominant 4 3/4-length win in the Bob Hope Stakes (G3) at Del Mar. Both the Bob Hope and San Vicente were held at seven furlongs, so Bullard will be stretching out to two turns for the first time in the Rebel. He's got the bloodlines to handle more distance as a son of Breeders' Cup Classic winner Gun Runner and sporting a female family that includes top-shelf broodmare Better Than Honour, who produced two Belmont Stakes (G1) winners. Bullard is the true wild-card contender in this year's Rebel. He might be overlooked by bettors in favor of locally based horses or even Bob Baffert-trained Madaket Road. The Rebel should give bettors and fans a clearer picture as to whether this talented colt peaked early in his racing career or still has the potential to accomplish greater things at age 3.
11. Speed King (6-1)
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Trainer: Ron Moquett
Owners: Triton Thoroughbreds, Naber Racing, Bryan Hennigan, Doug Rapier, and Ron Micetic
Career record: 3 starts - 2 wins - 1 second - 0 thirds
Career earnings: $669,000
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 103
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 25
Pedigree: Volatile —Athenian Beauty, by Corinthian
Color: Gray or roan
Running style: Pacesetter
Analysis: This properly named colt has been consistent so far in his young career—he prefers to be on the early lead and, as horse racing fans say, he "can get brave" if left alone in front. After an impressive maiden win last fall, Speed King set the pace in the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes in December and ran well in defeat when passed by Coal Battle in the late stages, losing by a half-length. In his 3-year-old debut, he was aggressively handled by jockey Rafael Bejarano as he broke from the outside post in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest Stakes Jan. 25 at Oaklawn, and he set the pace throughout en route to a one-length win over a rallying Sandman. Bejarano is back aboard for Sunday's Rebel, and Speed King won't be a 14-1 longshot this time. It will be interesting to see which, if any, contenders from the group of Coal Battle, Innovator, and Smoken Wicked move up to test Speed King in the early stages of the Rebel assuming he breaks well and takes the lead as he did in the Southwest. If he's got clear solo sailing again ... well, bravery is indeed a virtue.
12. Brereton's Baytown (50-1)
Jockey: Joseph Bealmear
Trainer: Paul McEntee
Owners: Baytown Partnerships and Trawitzki Thoroughbreds
Career record: 9 starts - 2 wins - 0 seconds - 0 thirds
Career earnings: $54,523
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 77
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Upstart —Kika, by Birdstone
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker/closer
Analysis: This gelding based at Turfway Park is also entered in that track's John Battaglia Memorial Stakes Feb. 22, a Kentucky Derby prep with a lower points distribution than the Rebel. If he is shipped to Arkansas, Brereton's Baytown will be taking a quantum leap in class in the Rebel, which will be his second stakes appearance and first since he debuted in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint stakes at Saratoga Race Course back in July and finished a well-defeated fifth. Between that start and his upcoming one, he had little success racing on the Kentucky circuit through five races but improved once relocated to the Mid-Atlantic circuit, where he won a 6 1/2-furlong maiden race at Hollywood Casino at Charles Town Races in December and in his most recent start captured a claiming race going 1 1/16 miles at Laurel Park. That level of competition is a galaxy away from what Brereton's Baytown is set to face Sunday, and it's hard to envision him doing anything more than (perhaps) passing a few tired runners in the stretch to finish in midpack with his best effort.
13. Tiztastic (8-1)
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Owners: Winchell Thoroughbreds, Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, and Derrick Smith
Career record: 6 starts - 2 wins - 1 second - 2 thirds
Career earnings: $909,800
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 99
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 14
Pedigree: Tiz the Law —Keesha, by Tapit
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Closer
Analysis: This son of Belmont Stakes winner Tiz the Law profiles as a solid mid-tier candidate in the Rebel, coming off of a good third-place finish to Speed King and Sandman in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest Jan. 25 at Oaklawn. Tiztastic had a troubled trip in the Southwest, as did Sandman, yet still came with his rally in the stretch to finish 2 1/2 lengths behind free and clear Speed King. He also ran well in two Kentucky Derby preps last fall at Churchill, finishing second to Sovereignty in the Street Sense Stakes and third to First Resort and Jonathan's Way in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), both held around two turns. Prior to those races, Tiztastic won two starts on turf. These are impressive credentials overall, and they make Tiztastic a must-use horse in exacta and trifecta tickets in the Rebel as he and his connections seek to acquire more Kentucky Derby points.
14. Hot Gunner (50-1)
Jockey: Harry Hernandez
Trainer: Scott Young
Owner: 7 Cedars Farm
Career record: 8 starts - 2 wins - 0 seconds - 2 thirds
Career earnings: $80,900
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 75
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Exaggerator—You Flatter Me, by Flatter
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Closer
Analysis: Hot Gunner joins Brereton's Baytown as a distant outsider candidate in the Rebel, and like that contender he enters Sunday's race off of a win. His came in a one-mile allowance race in mid-January held at Sam Houston Race Park, where he rallied from seventh of eight runners to win by a head. It was Hot Gunner's first win since his debut victory at Lone Star Park in July. In between those starts the Exaggerator gelding competed in four stakes races, with his best performance coming in a minor stakes at Prairie Meadows in August when third by 2 1/2 lengths. His race prior to the win at Sam Houston is telling, as Hot Gunner competed in the 1 1/16-mile Smarty Jones Stakes Jan. 4 at Oaklawn and tired badly to finish 12 1/4 lengths behind Coal Battle. The best-case scenario for this come-from-the-clouds closer would be filling out the Rebel superfecta at gargantuan odds, and even that is highly unlikely.
