1. Caldera
With a nice win bet on Caldera in the Feb. 16 Sunland Park Derby, I started to count my money in early stretch when he rallied boldly on the outside of pacesetter Getaway Car and seized command. I was obviously disappointed when Getaway Car battled back to prevail by a nose after a thrilling stretch duel, but I came away impressed nonetheless by the runner-up.
A robust gray or roan colt by Liam's Map trained by Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, Caldera seemed to lose focus a bit after he took the lead and allowed the winner to fight back on his inside. He was equipped with blinkers to limit his vision and might have thought his work was done when he hit the front, only to find out big races like this are rarely easy. He dug back in gamely and fought to the finish line only to come up just short.
Caldera was making his stakes debut after a 5 1/2-length win in his third career start Jan. 17 at Oaklawn Park and shows a promising trajectory. He has improved both his Equibase Speed Figure and Beyer Speed Figure in each of his four starts, with a career-best 99 Equibase Speed Figure and 91 Beyer Speed Figure for the Sunland Park Derby. Caldera still has some maturing to do but Lukas will give him every opportunity to prove he belongs on the Kentucky Derby (G1) trail.
2. John Hancock
John Hancock was a tepid 5-2 favorite for the Sam F. Davis Stakes Feb. 8 at Tampa Bay Downs coming off an impressive three-length debut win at the track in January, and he proved up to the task with a front-running half-length score for trainer Brad Cox.
He faced some pressure through a half-mile in :46.23 and had enough petrol in the tank to win the race with a final furlong in :12.95. He wasn't flying but the Constitution colt finished reasonably well under the circumstances.
Likewise, the speed figures were OK—a 96 Equibase Speed Figure and an 85 Beyer Speed Figure, both incremental steps forward—but with only two starts to date there is room for improvement for this unbeaten colt with tactical speed.
3. Baeza
After an unplaced finish on grass in his career debut and a runner-up finish to well-regarded Rodriguez in his second start, Baeza broke through with a win Feb. 14 at Santa Anita Park in his third try for trainer John Shirreffs.
The McKinzie colt pressed a strong pace from second under Hector Berrios and proved much the best late in a 4 3/4-length victory going a mile, completing the final eighth of a mile in :12.57.
Shirreffs won the Kentucky Derby (G1) 20 years ago with Giacomo, so this half brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Dornoch is in good hands. He earned a career-best 100 Equibase Speed Figure for the maiden win and an eye-catching 93 Beyer Speed Figure. He looks like a colt Shirreffs brought along slowly who is now starting to figure things out, plus he's bred to be a star.
Also Eligible
I dabbled with using the final spot on Getaway Car but his stock just did not rise much in my estimation in victory in the Sunland Park Derby. There is a level of class with Getaway Car that is pretty firmly established at this point—he's placed in a grade 1 race and won multiple stakes but looks a step below the best of the 3-year-old division. Getaway Car showed me some grit in the Sunland Park Derby, fighting back determinedly to turn back a challenger with all of the momentum. I'm just not sure how high the ceiling is for this Curlin colt after he matched a career-best 99 Equibase Speed Figure, the fourth time he's earned that number.
Chunk of Gold finished 9 3/4 lengths behind runaway Risen Star Stakes (G2) winner Magnitude Feb. 15 at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots. The victor would have been an absolute slam dunk for the top spot in this week's edition of this blog had he not come out of the race with an injury. But given how far back he was at the finish line, Chunk of Gold, who passed six horses for second place at 43-1 odds, was difficult to evaluate. He had shown promise in two previous races—a debut win sprinting and a runner-up finish in the one-mile Leonatus Stakes, both on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park—but I'll reserve judgment until his next start on the Derby trail.
