Given that he's sired four Belmont Stakes (G1) winners—Tonalist , Creator, Tapwrit, and Essential Quality —the offspring of three-time leading sire Tapit have made surprisingly little impact in the Kentucky Derby (G1). In fact, they've only twice made the first three—champion 2- and 3-year-old male Essential Quality took third after a wide trip in 2021, and Tacitus stayed on to gain the same spot in 2019. Oddly enough, both Essential Quality and Tacitus actually finished fourth and required the disqualification of the first past the post—Medina Spirit in 2021 and Maximum Security in 2019—to advance to the placing.
Perhaps the answer is that many of the Tapits that flourish over a distance of ground tend to be of a rather grinding type, and that doesn't play well into getting the run of the race in the Kentucky Derby, a race where in recent times tactical speed and forward placement have often been at a premium. Looking at the classic efforts of Tapit's son Frosted , one might have been tempted to label him as one of those "grinders" as he stayed on from well off the pace to take fourth to American Pharoah in the 2015 Kentucky Derby, and followed up with a distant second to the Triple Crown winner in the Belmont.
A deeper look at Frosted's career tells a different story. Remaining in training at 4, he produced an astonishing performance to capture the one-mile 2016 Metropolitan Handicap (G1) by 14 1/4 lengths in a time of 1:32.73, the fastest ever recorded for that historic race. He never produced another effort of quite that magnitude, but his record does also show victories in the 2016 Whitney Stakes (G1), 2015 Wood Memorial Stakes (G1), 2015 Pennsylvania Derby (G2), and 2016 Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 (G2), and his midrace surge against American Pharoah in the 2015 Travers Stakes (G1) played a significant role in the Triple Crown winner's upset defeat by Keen Ice .
So far, as a stallion, Frosted, who stands at Darley near Lexington, has been solid rather than spectacular. He has sired at least one graded stakes winner in each of his first five Northern Hemisphere crops, which have produced a total of 28 black-type winners, the best being 2021 Canadian champion 3-year-old male Frosted Over, as well as millionaire Post Time and Travel Column, both of whom have scored at the grade 2 level. He has also been represented by five stakes winners, four graded, from his Australian shuttle crops.
The sole stakes winner to date from the current 3-year-old crop by Frosted is Flood Zone, who March 1 took a step towards the opportunity to go one better than the current best effort by a Tapit-line horse in the Derby—a second by Constitution 's son Tiz the Law in 2020—with a win in the Gotham Stakes (G3).
This was only the third start for Flood Zone, who was acquired privately by Wathnan Racing after taking a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park by 5 1/4 lengths Jan. 4, having missed by just three-quarters of a length on his debut. In the Gotham, he was always close up before digging in to prevail by 3 1/4 lengths over the previously unbeaten New York-bred stakes winner Sand Devil. At the time of writing, it's not decided whether Flood Zone will run next in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2), Florida Derby (G1), or UAE Derby (G2).
Flood Zone's dam, Curls for Girls, is by Curlin , a horse who is one of the strongest influences for classic stamina among the current United States stallion elite. That said, Curls for Girls seemed to be a sprinter/miler, her sole victory coming in a maiden special weight over 6 1/2 furlongs at Delta Downs. Her full sister, Conquest Curlgirl, was a Churchill Downs allowance winner at a mile, and third in the 2015 Summertime Oaks (G3) at 1 1/16 miles. The two are also half sisters to Easyfromthegitgo, who captured the 2002 Iowa Derby and LeComte Stakes, and also included second in the Louisiana Derby (G2) among his graded placings, and to Sue's Good News, successful in the 2003 Singapore Plate Stakes (G3) at Arlington Park. Sue's Good News is herself dam of Tiz Miz Sue, three times successful in graded stakes events, most notably the 2013 Ogden Phipps Handicap (G1), and 2018 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint scorer, Bulletin, and granddam of stakes winner Made Me Shiver, and of Souper Sensational, another daughter of Curls for Girls' sire Curlin, who recorded her most significant success in the 6 1/2-furlong 2021 Victory Ride Stakes (G3).
The second dam, Montera, is by Easy Goer, who gained a classic victory when defeating his nemesis, Sunday Silence, for the 1989 Belmont Stakes, having finished runner-up to that horse in the first two legs of the Triple Crown. Montera is half sister to the 1992 Ballerina Stakes (G1) captress, Serape, herself granddam of multiple group 1 winner Hawkbill and 2017 Breeders' Futurity (G1) winner Free Drop Billy. Their dam, Mochila, a stakes winner and grade 1-placed, is half sister to 1985 champion grass male and 1996 leading sire Cozzene.
Flood Zone is the second stakes winner for Frosted out of a mare by a son of Smart Strike. The Tapit/Smart Strike cross has also produced 2023 Canadian champion older dirt male Tyson, graded scorers Duke of Love and Promise Keeper, and a total of 13 stakes stakes winners. The reverse cross, that of Curlin over a Tapit mare, is responsible for 2023 Horse of the Year and champion older dirt male Cody's Wish .
Both Flood Zone's sire and broodmare sire are out of mares by Deputy Minister, and doubling this strain has been particularly effective where Curlin is involved, already appearing in 39 stakes winners, including 2019 champion older dirt male Vino Rosso and grade 1 winners Keen Ice, Curalina, Highland Falls, Grace Adler, and Structor, as well as another weekend Derby trial winner, Journalism, who impressed while defeating Barnes in the San Felipe Stakes (G2).
